Liverpool FC MI
ECNL Regional League Girls · Lake Michigan GU14 · 5 teams · Liverpool FC-IA Michigan (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 11:00 AM
Detroit Country Day, Field 1 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.5 against · 1.62 expected points)
| Season so far | Liverpool FC MI | Nationals SC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-1-0 | 4-0-1 |
| Points per game | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| Goals for / game | 2.8 | 3.2 |
| Goals against / game | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W D | W W W L W |
| Biggest win | 7–0 vs FC Wisconsin | 4–0 at Chicago Inter |
| Worst loss | — | 1–3 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.88 | +0.86 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.26 | -0.27 |
Common opponents: Chicago Inter — we 2–2; they 4–0. Eclipse Select Soccer Club — we 2–1; they 1–3. Michigan Hawks — we 2–0; they 3–1.
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
Nationals SC score 3.2/game — well above the league's 1.8.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 22% / loss 31%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
They arrive in form
Nationals SC have won 3 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Nationals SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Liverpool FC MI – Nationals SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 2.33 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 2.67 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.33 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 2.17 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 64%
- 2nd 34%
- 3rd 2%
- 4th
- 5th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
5 chains · 5 teams
Paths of results that link Liverpool FC MI to Nationals SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
4 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.13 · 3rd hardest of 5
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM |
Nationals SC 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +10 |
Home Detroit Country Day |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
1–1 | 1.62 | 2.44 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Nationals SC 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +10 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.35 | 2.28 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club 3rd · 2-0-3 · GD -1 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
2–1 | 1.96 | 2.24 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Chicago Inter 4th · 2-2-3 · GD -7 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 76% |
2–0 | 2.42 | 2.26 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
FC 1974 Libertyville |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
2–1 | 2.06 | 2.24 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Evolution |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
2–1 | 2.06 | 2.23 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Michigan Hawks 5th · 1-1-2 · GD +1 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–1 | 2.16 | 2.22 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Liverpool FC MI | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 13 | 2.60 | DWWWW | -0.26 | +0.13 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Nationals SC · Sat Apr 3 at Nationals SC · Sat Apr 17 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Nationals SC | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 12 | 2.40 | WLWWW | -0.27 | +0.14 | 100% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Rockford Raptors FC · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Wisconsin · Sat Oct 31 at Liverpool FC MI See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 6 | 1.20 | WWL | +0.35 | +0.06 | 88% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Mar 21 vs Chicago Inter · Sat Apr 10 vs FC 1974 Libertyville · Sun Apr 11 vs Evolution See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Chicago Inter | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 8 | 1.14 | LDL | +0.67 | +0.17 | 43% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Mar 21 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sat Apr 3 vs Michigan Hawks · Sun Apr 4 vs Michigan Hawks See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Michigan Hawks | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 4 | 1.00 | LDWL | +0.87 | +0.05 | 69% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Wisconsin · Sun Oct 25 vs Rockford Raptors FC · Sun Mar 21 vs Nationals SC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.77 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.