Toca Fusion Elite
ECNL Regional League Girls · Heartland GU17 · 6 teams · Toca Fusion Athletic Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM
Compass Minerals Sporting Fields, Field 3 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.8 for, 1.0 against · 2.38 expected points)
| Season so far | Toca Fusion Elite | Sporting Blue Valley |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 7-0-2 | 3-2-6 |
| Points per game | 2.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W L | W L W D L |
| Biggest win | 6–0 vs Omaha United SC | 3–1 vs Toca Fusion Elite |
| Worst loss | 0–2 vs Kansas Rush Gold | 0–6 vs Gretna Elite Academy |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.96 | -0.53 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.12 | -0.07 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 1–3 at Sporting Blue Valley (L)
Common opponents: Kansas Rush Gold — we 0–2; they 3–2. Kansas City Athletics — we 2–0; they 0–1. Gretna Elite Academy — we 3–1; they 2–2, 0–6. Omaha United SC — we 6–0; they 0–1, 2–0.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 vs Kansas Rush Gold.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 74% chance; likely score 2–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Sporting Blue Valley game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Toca Fusion Elite – Sporting Blue Valley) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.40 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 2.40 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.20 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.10 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 1st— holds | 2nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 58%
- 2nd 36%
- 3rd 4%
- 4th 1%
- 5th
- 6th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
31 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Toca Fusion Elite to Sporting Blue Valley through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.05 · 5th hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM |
Sporting Blue Valley 5th · 3-2-6 · GD -9 |
Home Compass Minerals Sporting Fields |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
2–1 | 2.38 | 2.34 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM |
Kansas City Athletics 3rd · 5-2-3 · GD +5 |
Away far trip
Paragon Star Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
1–1 | 1.54 | 2.27 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 02:00 PM |
St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO |
Home Compass Minerals Sporting Fields |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–1 | 2.10 | 2.25 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM |
St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL |
Home Compass Minerals Sporting Fields |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–1 | 2.10 | 2.24 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 21 02:00 PM |
Omaha United SC 6th · 2-0-11 · GD -36 |
Away far trip
Levi Carter Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
3–0 | 2.71 | 2.27 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 22 11:00 AM |
Gretna Elite Academy 4th · 6-4-3 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
Pinnacle Bank Soccer Complex ( Gretna Soccer Compl |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 42% |
1–1 | 1.49 | 2.22 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 5 01:00 PM |
Kansas Rush Gold 2nd · 6-1-2 · GD +23 |
Away Compass Minerals National Performance Center |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–1 | 1.21 | 2.16 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Toca Fusion Elite | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 9 | +15 | 21 | 2.33 | LWWWW | -0.12 | -0.05 | 100% | 1.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sat Oct 31 at Kansas City Athletics · Sat Nov 7 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Kansas Rush Gold | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 8 | +23 | 19 | 2.11 | LLWWD | -0.15 | -0.06 | 100% | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sun Oct 25 at Sporting Blue Valley · Sat Nov 7 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Kansas City Athletics | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 17 | 1.70 | LWLWW | -0.18 | +0.29 | 100% | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Kansas Rush Gold · Sat Oct 31 vs Toca Fusion Elite · Sat Nov 21 vs Sporting Iowa See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Gretna Elite Academy | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 28 | 18 | +10 | 22 | 1.69 | DLDWL | +0.03 | +0.02 | 100% | 3.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Omaha United SC · Sat Nov 21 vs Kansas Rush Gold · Sun Nov 22 vs Toca Fusion Elite See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Sporting Blue Valley | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 11 | 1.00 | LDWLW | -0.07 | +0.48 | 0% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Toca Fusion Elite · Sun Oct 25 vs Kansas Rush Gold · Sat Nov 21 vs FC United Iowa See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Omaha United SC | 13 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 10 | 46 | -36 | 6 | 0.46 | LLLLL | +0.34 | +0.86 | 0% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Gretna Elite Academy · Sat Nov 21 vs Toca Fusion Elite · Sun Nov 22 vs Kansas Rush Gold See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.66 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.