Kansas Rush Gold

ECNL Regional League Girls · Heartland GU17 · 6 teams · Kansas Rush (all teams)

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1st

6-1-2 record · 9 played

2.11 points per game

+23 goal diff · 31–8

LLWWDlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.5

-0.14 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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Kansas Rush Gold
1st · 2.11 PPG

Kansas City Athletics
3rd · 1.70 PPG

Compass Minerals National Performance Center, EAST ↗

54% 22% 24%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 1.2 against · 1.84 expected points)

Season so far	Kansas Rush Gold	Kansas City Athletics
Position	1st	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	6-1-2	5-2-3
Points per game	2.11	1.70
Goals for / game	3.4	1.9
Goals against / game	0.9	1.4
Clean sheets	3	3
Held scoreless	1	2
Form (recent first)	D W W L L	W W L W L
Biggest win	5–0 vs FC United Iowa	5–1 vs Omaha United SC
Worst loss	0–2 at Kansas City Athletics	0–2 at Toca Fusion Elite
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.02	+0.43
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.14	-0.18

Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 0–2 at Kansas City Athletics (L)

Common opponents: Toca Fusion Elite — we 2–0; they 0–2. Sporting Blue Valley — we 2–3; they 1–0. Omaha United SC — we 4–0; they 2–1, 5–1. Gretna Elite Academy — we 1–1; they 1–2, 2–1.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at Kansas City Athletics.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 54% / draw 22% / loss 24%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Kansas City Athletics game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Kansas Rush Gold – Kansas City Athletics) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 2.00 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1
Win 2.20 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.00 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1
Loss 1.90 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we fall to at least 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

63% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.5 average finish

1st 63%
2nd 27%
3rd 7%
4th 3%
5th
6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

33 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Kansas Rush Gold to Kansas City Athletics through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

15 favour us

6 even

12 favour them

+0.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.07 · 6th hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM	Kansas City Athletics 3rd · 5-2-3 · GD +5	Home Compass Minerals National Performance Center	●●●○○ Toss-up	54%	1–1	1.84	2.08	Swing game
Sun Oct 25 04:30 PM	Sporting Blue Valley 5th · 4-2-6 · GD -8	Away far trip Scheels Overland Park Soccer Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	2–1	2.10	2.09	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 12:00 PM	St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL	Home Paragon Star Sports Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	65%	2–1	2.13	2.09	Swing game
Sun Nov 8 12:00 PM	St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO	Home Paragon Star Sports Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	65%	2–1	2.13	2.09	Swing game
Sat Nov 21 08:00 AM	Gretna Elite Academy 4th · 6-4-3 · GD +10	Away far trip Pinnacle Bank Soccer Complex ( Gretna Soccer Compl	●●●○○ Toss-up	43%	1–1	1.52	2.05	Swing game
Sun Nov 22 12:00 PM	Omaha United SC 6th · 2-0-11 · GD -36	Away far trip Levi Carter Sports Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	88%	3–0	2.71	2.10	Bank it
Sat Dec 5 01:00 PM	Toca Fusion Elite 2nd · 7-0-3 · GD +14	Home Compass Minerals National Performance Center	●●●○○ Toss-up	51%	2–1	1.73	2.07	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Kansas Rush Gold

+23

2.11

LLWWD

-0.14

-0.07

100%

1.5

D	Sun Oct 11	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (4th)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Omaha United SC (6th)	4–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC United Iowa (—)	5–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Sporting Blue Valley (5th)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Kansas City Athletics (3rd)	0–2
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Toca Fusion Elite (2nd)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sun Oct 25 at Sporting Blue Valley · Sat Nov 7 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Kansas City Athletics (3rd)	1–1	54%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Sporting Blue Valley (5th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL (—)	2–1	65%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO (—)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Gretna Elite Academy (4th)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Omaha United SC (6th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Toca Fusion Elite (2nd)	2–1	51%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Toca Fusion Elite

+14

2.10

WWWWL

-0.14

+0.03

100%

2.0

L	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sporting Blue Valley (5th)	2–3
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Omaha United SC (6th)	6–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (4th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC United Iowa (—)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Kansas City Athletics (3rd)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Sporting Blue Valley (5th)	1–3
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Kansas Rush Gold (1st)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Kansas City Athletics · Sat Nov 7 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO · Sun Nov 8 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Kansas City Athletics (3rd)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO (—)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL (—)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Omaha United SC (6th)	3–0	85%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Gretna Elite Academy (4th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Kansas Rush Gold (1st)	1–2	28%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Kansas City Athletics

1.70

LWLWW

-0.18

+0.28

98%

3.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (4th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Omaha United SC (6th)	5–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Toca Fusion Elite (2nd)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Omaha United SC (6th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Gretna Elite Academy (4th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Kansas Rush Gold (1st)	2–0
D	Sun Aug 30	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL (—)	0–0
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO (—)	3–4
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Sporting Blue Valley (5th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Kansas Rush Gold · Sat Oct 31 vs Toca Fusion Elite · Sat Nov 21 vs Sporting Iowa See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Kansas Rush Gold (1st)	1–1	24%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Toca Fusion Elite (2nd)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Sporting Iowa (—)	1–1	52%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	FC United Iowa (—)	1–1	52%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Sporting Blue Valley (5th)	2–1	60%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Gretna Elite Academy

+10

1.69

DLDWL

+0.05

-0.04

100%

3.1

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Kansas City Athletics (3rd)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Sporting Blue Valley (5th)	6–0
D	Sun Oct 11	at	Kansas Rush Gold (1st)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Toca Fusion Elite (2nd)	1–3
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Sporting Blue Valley (5th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Kansas City Athletics (3rd)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 6	vs	Omaha United SC (6th)	3–1
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Missouri Rush (—)	0–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	AFA Fillies (—)	3–0
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	FC United Iowa (—)	1–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Omaha United SC · Sat Nov 21 vs Kansas Rush Gold · Sun Nov 22 vs Toca Fusion Elite See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Omaha United SC (6th)	3–0	83%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Kansas Rush Gold (1st)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Toca Fusion Elite (2nd)	1–1	42%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting Blue Valley

-8

1.17

DWLWW

+0.04

+0.36

5.0

W	Sat Oct 24	at	Toca Fusion Elite (2nd)	3–2
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Omaha United SC (6th)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (4th)	0–6
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Kansas Rush Gold (1st)	3–2
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Gretna Elite Academy (4th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Omaha United SC (6th)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Toca Fusion Elite (2nd)	3–1
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO (—)	1–2
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL (—)	2–2
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Kansas City Athletics (3rd)	0–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Kansas Rush Gold · Sat Nov 21 vs FC United Iowa · Sun Nov 22 vs Sporting Iowa See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Kansas Rush Gold (1st)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	FC United Iowa (—)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Sporting Iowa (—)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Kansas City Athletics (3rd)	1–2	20%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Omaha United SC

-36

0.46

LLLLL

+0.36

+0.79

6.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Sporting Blue Valley (5th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Kansas City Athletics (3rd)	1–5
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Toca Fusion Elite (2nd)	0–6
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Kansas Rush Gold (1st)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Kansas City Athletics (3rd)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sporting Blue Valley (5th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 6	at	Gretna Elite Academy (4th)	1–3
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	AFA Fillies (—)	0–2
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Missouri Rush (—)	2–3

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Gretna Elite Academy · Sat Nov 21 vs Toca Fusion Elite · Sun Nov 22 vs Kansas Rush Gold See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (4th)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Toca Fusion Elite (2nd)	0–3	6%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Kansas Rush Gold (1st)	0–3	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.70 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.