TableChase Clubs

Missouri Rush

ECNL Regional League Girls · Heartland GU15 · 6 teams · Missouri Rush (all teams)

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4th
4-1-7 record · 12 played
1.08 points per game
-3 goal diff · 16–19
LDLLLlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.9
+0.09 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:00 PM

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Missouri Rush
4th · 1.08 PPG
vs
St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL
1st · 2.55 PPG

Missouri Rush Sports Park, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 0.9 for, 2.3 against · 0.59 expected points)

Season so farMissouri RushSt. Louis Scott Gallagher IL
Position4th1st
Record (W-D-L)4-1-79-1-1
Points per game1.082.55
Goals for / game1.33.0
Goals against / game1.60.7
Clean sheets25
Held scoreless60
Form (recent first)L L L D LW W W W W
Biggest win3–0 vs FC United Iowa6–0 vs Omaha United SC
Worst loss0–4 vs Sporting Blue Valley—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.14+1.52
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.09-0.80

Already played this season: Sun Aug 23 0–3 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL (L)

Common opponents: FC United Iowa — we 3–0; they 6–0, 3–1. Sporting Iowa — we 3–2; they 3–0, 2–0. AFA Fillies — we 0–0; they 4–3, 2–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL score 3.0/game — well above the league's 1.5.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL concede only 0.7/game with 5 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 6 time(s): 0–3 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL, 0–1 vs Toca Fusion Elite, 0–3 vs Kansas Rush Gold, 0–1 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO, 0–0 vs AFA Fillies, 0–4 vs Sporting Blue Valley.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 14%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL have won 9 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Missouri Rush – St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.00 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Win
1.23 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Draw
1.08 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Loss
1.00 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–2 loss we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
3.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd 12%
  4. 4th 88%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.56 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL 2.55 (+1.47) 1st (2.40) 28 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO 2.36 (+1.28) 2nd (2.12) 25 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 AFA Fillies 1.25 (+0.17) 3rd (1.43) 7 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection

How the results connect

39 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Missouri Rush to St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
34 favour them
-1.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–3 0–0 3–4 1–2 3–2 0–2 3–0 1–3 0–3 0–6 1–2 2–0 2–0 1–0 5–1 Missouri Rush 4th AFA Fillies 3rd Sporting Iowa 5th FC United Iowa 6th St. Louis Scott Gal… 2nd St. Louis Scott Gal… 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 3rd 6th Aug 23 Sep 10 Sep 20 Oct 9 Oct 18 Oct 21

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.27 · 4th hardest of 6

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
03:00 PM		 St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL
1st · 9-1-1 · GD +25		 Home
Missouri Rush Sports Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
14%		 0–2 0.59 1.05 Upside
Sat Oct 31
02:00 PM		 FC United Iowa
6th · 0-0-11 · GD -36		 Away far trip
Tuma Soccer Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
75%		 2–0 2.42 1.14 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
10:00 AM		 Sporting Iowa
5th · 1-2-8 · GD -17		 Away far trip
Hy-Vee Multiplex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
49%		 1–1 1.69 1.18 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
01:00 PM		 AFA Fillies
3rd · 4-3-5 · GD +4		 Away
Mueller Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
24%		 1–1 0.93 1.16 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL 11911 338+25 282.55 WWWWW -0.80 +0.44 100% 1.2
2 St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO 11821 207+13 262.36 WWWWW -0.81 +1.15 100% 1.8
3 AFA Fillies 12435 2420+4 151.25 DDLLL +0.19 -0.60 100% 3.1
4 Missouri Rush 12417 1619-3 131.08 LDLLL +0.09 -0.27 100% 3.9
5 Sporting Iowa 11128 1330-17 50.45 LLLLL +0.43 -0.60 0% 5.0
6 FC United Iowa 110011 137-36 00.00 LLLLL +0.60 -0.22 0% 6.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.51 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.