AFA Fillies
ECNL Regional League Girls · Heartland GU15 · 6 teams · AFA Fillies (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 01:00 PM
Hy-Vee Multiplex, Green #1 ↗ far trip
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.6 for, 1.4 against · 2.10 expected points)
| Season so far | AFA Fillies | Sporting Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-3-5 | 1-2-8 |
| Points per game | 1.25 | 0.45 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals against / game | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 4 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L D D | L L L L L |
| Biggest win | 5–1 vs Sporting Iowa | 2–0 vs FC United Iowa |
| Worst loss | 0–6 vs Kansas City Athletics | 1–7 vs Kansas Rush Gold |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.41 | -0.92 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.19 | +0.43 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 5 5–1 vs Sporting Iowa (W)
Common opponents: FC United Iowa — we 4–0; they 2–0. St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL — we 3–4, 1–2; they 0–3, 0–2. Kansas Rush Gold — we 1–2; they 1–7. Toca Fusion Elite — we 2–1; they 1–2. Missouri Rush — we 0–0; they 2–3. St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO — we 0–1; they 0–1, 3–4.
Game plan
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They leak goals — be greedy
Sporting Iowa concede 2.7/game; worst result 1–7 vs Kansas Rush Gold.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–0 at Missouri Rush, 0–6 vs Kansas City Athletics, 0–1 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 64% / draw 17% / loss 18%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Confidence is low on their side
Sporting Iowa have lost 6 straight (form: LLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Hy-Vee Multiplex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Sporting Iowa game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (AFA Fillies – Sporting Iowa) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.38 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Win 1.38 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 1.23 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.15 PPG |
3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd 87%
- 4th 13%
- 5th <1%
- 6th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.69 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL | 2.55 (+1.30) | 1st (2.40) | 26 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO | 2.36 (+1.11) | 2nd (2.12) | 23 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
How the results connect
35 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link AFA Fillies to Sporting Iowa through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
14 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.60 · 5th hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
Sporting Iowa 5th · 1-2-8 · GD -17 |
Away far trip
Hy-Vee Multiplex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–1 | 2.10 | 1.32 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 08:00 AM |
FC United Iowa 6th · 0-0-11 · GD -36 |
Away far trip
Tuma Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
3–0 | 2.69 | 1.41 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 01:00 PM |
Missouri Rush 4th · 4-1-7 · GD -3 |
Home Mueller Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
1–1 | 1.85 | 1.44 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 21 03:00 PM |
St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO 2nd · 8-2-1 · GD +13 |
Home Mueller Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–1 | 1.18 | 1.43 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 8 | +25 | 28 | 2.55 | WWWWW | -0.80 | +0.44 | 100% | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Missouri Rush · Tue Nov 3 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO · Sat Dec 12 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 7 | +13 | 26 | 2.36 | WWWWW | -0.81 | +1.15 | 100% | 1.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Tue Nov 3 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL · Sat Nov 21 at AFA Fillies · Sat Dec 12 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | AFA Fillies | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 15 | 1.25 | DDLLL | +0.19 | -0.60 | 100% | 3.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Sporting Iowa · Sun Nov 1 at FC United Iowa · Sat Nov 7 vs Missouri Rush See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Missouri Rush | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 13 | 1.08 | LDLLL | +0.09 | -0.27 | 99% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL · Sat Oct 31 at FC United Iowa · Sun Nov 1 at Sporting Iowa See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Sporting Iowa | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 30 | -17 | 5 | 0.45 | LLLLL | +0.43 | -0.60 | 1% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs AFA Fillies · Sun Nov 1 vs Missouri Rush · Sat Nov 7 at FC United Iowa See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | FC United Iowa | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 37 | -36 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.60 | -0.22 | 0% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Missouri Rush · Sun Nov 1 vs AFA Fillies · Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting Iowa See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.51 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.