St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL
ECNL Regional League Girls · Heartland GU14 · 6 teams · St. Louis Scott Gallagher (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 05:00 PM
Missouri Rush Sports Park, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 1.3 against · 1.87 expected points)
| Season so far | St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL | Missouri Rush |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-3-2 | 1-2-4 |
| Points per game | 1.29 | 0.71 |
| Goals for / game | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| Goals against / game | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | D L W D L | W L L L L |
| Biggest win | 4–0 vs Sporting Iowa | 2–1 vs Sporting Blue Valley |
| Worst loss | 3–4 vs Omaha United SC | 1–7 vs Toca Fusion Elite |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.22 | -0.64 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.71 | +1.73 |
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
Missouri Rush average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 1.4); blanked in 3 of 7.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Missouri Rush concede 2.3/game; worst result 1–7 vs Toca Fusion Elite.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 55% / draw 21% / loss 23%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Away game
Kickoff 05:00 PM at Missouri Rush Sports Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Missouri Rush game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL – Missouri Rush) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.50 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 1.25 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Loss 1.13 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 6%
- 3rd 78%
- 4th 13%
- 5th 4%
- 6th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.33 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO | 3.00 (+1.71) | 1st (2.73) | 45 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | FC United Iowa | 2.14 (+0.85) | 2nd (1.93) | 30 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
How the results connect
2 chains · 5 teams
Paths of results that link St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL to Missouri Rush through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
5 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.01 · 1st hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 05:00 PM |
Missouri Rush 4th · 1-2-4 · GD -11 |
Away far trip
Missouri Rush Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
2–1 | 1.87 | 1.36 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 12 10:00 AM |
St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +21 |
Home WWT Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
0–2 | 0.47 | 1.26 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Missouri Rush 4th · 1-2-4 · GD -11 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–1 | 2.12 | 1.35 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Kansas City Athletics |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
1–1 | 1.66 | 1.37 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Sporting Blue Valley |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
1–1 | 1.66 | 1.40 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +21 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
0–2 | 0.34 | 1.32 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Kansas Rush Gold |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
1–1 | 1.66 | 1.34 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Toca Fusion Elite |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
1–1 | 1.66 | 1.36 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
AFA Fillies 5th · 1-2-4 · GD -13 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
2–1 | 2.06 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
FC United Iowa 2nd · 5-0-2 · GD +4 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–1 | 1.20 | 1.39 | Upside |
| Sun May 16 10:00 AM |
Sporting Iowa 6th · 0-0-7 · GD -22 |
Away far trip
Hy-Vee Multiplex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 81% |
2–0 | 2.56 | 1.46 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | +21 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.74 | -0.26 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 21 at AFA Fillies · Sat Dec 12 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL · Sat Mar 6 vs AFA Fillies See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | FC United Iowa | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 15 | 2.14 | LWLW | +0.19 | -0.25 | 100% | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Missouri Rush · Sun Nov 1 vs AFA Fillies · Sat Apr 3 at Missouri Rush See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 9 | 1.29 | LDWLD | -0.71 | +0.01 | 96% | 3.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Missouri Rush · Sat Dec 12 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO · Sat Mar 6 vs Missouri Rush See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Missouri Rush | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 5 | 0.71 | LLLLW | +1.73 | -0.19 | 55% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL · Sat Oct 31 at FC United Iowa · Sun Nov 1 at Sporting Iowa See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | AFA Fillies | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 18 | -13 | 5 | 0.71 | LLLDD | +0.22 | -0.07 | 48% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Sporting Iowa · Sun Nov 1 at FC United Iowa · Sat Nov 7 vs Missouri Rush See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Sporting Iowa | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 23 | -22 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.77 | -0.02 | 0% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs AFA Fillies · Sun Nov 1 vs Missouri Rush · Sat Apr 3 at AFA Fillies See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.43 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.