Missouri Rush
ECNL Regional League Girls · Heartland GU14 · 6 teams · Missouri Rush (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 05:00 PM
Missouri Rush Sports Park, Field 1 ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.3 for, 2.0 against · 0.92 expected points)
| Season so far | Missouri Rush | St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-2-4 | 2-3-2 |
| Points per game | 0.71 | 1.29 |
| Goals for / game | 0.7 | 2.1 |
| Goals against / game | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W L L L L | D L W D L |
| Biggest win | 2–1 vs Sporting Blue Valley | 4–0 vs Sporting Iowa |
| Worst loss | 1–7 vs Toca Fusion Elite | 3–4 vs Omaha United SC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.64 | +0.22 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +1.73 | -0.71 |
Game plan
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Respect their attack
St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL score 2.1/game — well above the league's 1.4.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–1 vs Kansas Rush Gold, 0–2 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO, 0–3 vs Kansas City Athletics.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 23%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Missouri Rush – St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.63 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.00 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Draw 0.75 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Loss 0.63 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we fall to at least 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 9%
- 4th 45%
- 5th 45%
- 6th 1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.11 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO | 3.00 (+2.29) | 1st (2.73) | 49 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | FC United Iowa | 2.14 (+1.43) | 2nd (1.93) | 34 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 3 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL | 1.29 (+0.58) | 3rd (1.46) | 19 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
How the results connect
2 chains · 5 teams
Paths of results that link Missouri Rush to St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
5 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.19 · 4th hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 05:00 PM |
St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL 3rd · 2-3-2 · GD +3 |
Home Missouri Rush Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.92 | 0.74 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 04:00 PM |
FC United Iowa 2nd · 5-0-2 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
Tuma Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
0–1 | 0.71 | 0.74 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 08:00 AM |
Sporting Iowa 6th · 0-0-7 · GD -22 |
Away far trip
Hy-Vee Multiplex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
1–0 | 2.00 | 0.86 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM |
AFA Fillies 5th · 1-2-4 · GD -13 |
Away Mueller Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–1 | 1.19 | 0.89 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL 3rd · 2-3-2 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–2 | 0.70 | 0.88 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
FC United Iowa 2nd · 5-0-2 · GD +4 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–1 | 0.91 | 0.88 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
Sporting Iowa 6th · 0-0-7 · GD -22 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
1–0 | 2.20 | 0.97 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Omaha United SC |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–1 | 1.06 | 0.98 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Gretna Elite Academy |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–1 | 1.06 | 0.98 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
AFA Fillies 5th · 1-2-4 · GD -13 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
1–1 | 1.43 | 1.01 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +21 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
0–2 | 0.18 | 0.96 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | +21 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.74 | -0.26 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 21 at AFA Fillies · Sat Dec 12 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL · Sat Mar 6 vs AFA Fillies See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | FC United Iowa | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 15 | 2.14 | LWLW | +0.19 | -0.25 | 100% | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Missouri Rush · Sun Nov 1 vs AFA Fillies · Sat Apr 3 at Missouri Rush See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 9 | 1.29 | LDWLD | -0.71 | +0.01 | 97% | 3.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Missouri Rush · Sat Dec 12 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO · Sat Mar 6 vs Missouri Rush See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Missouri Rush | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 5 | 0.71 | LLLLW | +1.73 | -0.19 | 54% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL · Sat Oct 31 at FC United Iowa · Sun Nov 1 at Sporting Iowa See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | AFA Fillies | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 18 | -13 | 5 | 0.71 | LLLDD | +0.22 | -0.07 | 49% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Sporting Iowa · Sun Nov 1 at FC United Iowa · Sat Nov 7 vs Missouri Rush See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Sporting Iowa | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 23 | -22 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.77 | -0.02 | 0% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs AFA Fillies · Sun Nov 1 vs Missouri Rush · Sat Apr 3 at AFA Fillies See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.43 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.