AFA Fillies

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Hy-Vee Multiplex, Green #1 ↗ far trip

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.8 for, 0.8 against · 2.05 expected points)

Common opponents: Kansas Rush Gold — we 0–2; they 1–3. St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL — we 1–1; they 0–4.

• They struggle to score
  Sporting Iowa average 0.1 goals/game (league avg 1.4); blanked in 5 of 7.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  Sporting Iowa concede 3.3/game; worst result 0–6 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–2 vs Kansas Rush Gold, 0–5 vs Toca Fusion Elite, 0–3 vs Sporting Blue Valley.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Swing game — small margins
  Win 61% / draw 22% / loss 17%.

  Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

• Confidence is low on their side
  Sporting Iowa have lost 6 straight (form: LLLLL).

  Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

• Away game
  Kickoff 09:00 AM at Hy-Vee Multiplex.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• Early kickoff
  Game time 09:00 AM.

  Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

• What a win does
  Missouri Rush sit 4th on 0.71 PPG; we are on 0.71.

  A point moves us above Missouri Rush on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Sporting Iowa game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (AFA Fillies – Sporting Iowa) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–0 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd <1%
3. 3rd 6%
4. 4th 44%
5. 5th 48%
6. 6th 2%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.11 PPG if we win out).