Nationals SC-CA GMA
ECNL Regional League Girls · GMA GU13 · 12 teams · Nationals (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:00 AM
Portage Soccer Complex, Field 3 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.0 for, 3.3 against · 0.35 expected points)
| Season so far | Nationals SC-CA GMA | Portage SC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 9th | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-5 | 5-0-3 |
| Points per game | 0.86 | 1.88 |
| Goals for / game | 1.0 | 3.1 |
| Goals against / game | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W W L | W L L W L |
| Biggest win | 3–0 at Plymouth Reign | 9–0 at Plymouth Reign |
| Worst loss | 0–4 vs Legends FC | 1–3 at Legends FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.59 | +1.27 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.09 | +0.12 |
Common opponents: Michigan Rangers FC — we 1–3; they 0–1. Michigan Burn — we 0–1; they 3–2. Plymouth Reign — we 3–0; they 9–0. Detroit City FC West — we 2–0; they 5–0. Legends FC — we 0–4; they 1–3. Cap City Athletic 1847 — we 0–3; they 3–1.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Portage SC score 3.1/game — well above the league's 1.6.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–1 at Michigan Burn, 0–4 vs Legends FC, 0–3 vs Cap City Athletic 1847.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 8%; a draw (12%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Portage Soccer Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
TKO Premier SC sit 8th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.86.A point moves us above TKO Premier SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Portage SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Nationals SC-CA GMA – Portage SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.75 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 10th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.13 PPG |
8th▲ up 1 | 8th▲ up 1 | 9th— holds |
| Draw 0.88 PPG |
9th— holds | 8th▲ up 1 | 10th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.75 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 10th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 9th even if every rival loses, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th <1%
- 6th <1%
- 7th 2%
- 8th 32%
- 9th 62%
- 10th 4%
- 11th <1%
- 12th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.64 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legends FC | 3.00 (+2.14) | 1st (2.75) | 27 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Michigan Rangers FC | 3.00 (+2.14) | 2nd (2.50) | 27 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Nationals SC-Union GMA | 2.00 (+1.14) | 4th (1.89) | 16 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Portage SC | 1.88 (+1.02) | 3rd (2.04) | 15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | Cap City Athletic 1847 | 1.86 (+1.00) | 5th (1.88) | 15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 6 | Michigan Burn | 1.67 (+0.81) | 6th (1.73) | 13 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 7 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 13/14 GMA | 1.57 (+0.71) | 7th (1.49) | 12 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection |
| 8 | TKO Premier SC | 1.00 (+0.14) | 8th (1.09) | A point next game |
How the results connect
27 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link Nationals SC-CA GMA to Portage SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.00 · 7th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM |
Portage SC 4th · 5-0-3 · GD +14 |
Away far trip
Portage Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–3 | 0.35 | 0.79 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM |
TKO Premier SC 8th · 2-0-4 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
Kalamazoo Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
0–1 | 1.19 | 0.84 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 12:00 PM |
Nationals SC-Union GMA 3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +3 |
Home Capital Area Sports Plex |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.88 | 0.84 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 12:00 PM |
Liverpool FC MI GMA 12th · 1-0-7 · GD -15 |
Home Capital Area Sports Plex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
1–0 | 1.98 | 0.95 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Legends FC | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | +0.01 | -0.45 | 100% | 1.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Nationals SC-Union GMA · Sat Nov 7 vs Detroit City FC West · Sun Nov 8 vs Plymouth Reign See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Michigan Rangers FC | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 2 | +17 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.90 | +0.49 | 99% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cap City Athletic 1847 · Sun Oct 25 at TKO Premier SC · Sun Nov 1 at Nationals SC-Union GMA See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Nationals SC-Union GMA | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 12 | 2.00 | WLWWL | +0.13 | -0.21 | 42% | 4.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Plymouth Reign · Sun Oct 25 vs Legends FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Detroit City FC West See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Portage SC | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 11 | +14 | 15 | 1.88 | LWLLW | +0.12 | -0.61 | 88% | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Nationals SC-CA GMA · Sat Oct 31 vs Liverpool FC MI GMA · Sun Nov 1 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 13/14 GMA See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Cap City Athletic 1847 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 13 | 1.86 | LLWWW | +0.19 | -0.45 | 50% | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Michigan Rangers FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Michigan Burn · Sat Nov 7 at Plymouth Reign See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Michigan Burn | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 10 | 1.67 | WWWDL | +0.27 | -0.38 | 20% | 5.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at TKO Premier SC · Sun Oct 25 at Cap City Athletic 1847 · Sat Oct 31 vs Plymouth Reign See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 13/14 GMA | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 11 | 1.57 | LLDWW | -0.08 | +0.07 | 2% | 6.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Plymouth Reign · Sun Nov 1 at Portage SC · Sat Nov 7 at TKO Premier SC See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | TKO Premier SC | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 6 | 1.00 | WWLLL | +0.08 | +0.07 | 0% | 8.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs Michigan Burn · Sun Oct 25 vs Michigan Rangers FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Nationals SC-CA GMA See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Nationals SC-CA GMA | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 6 | 0.86 | LWWLL | +0.09 | -0.00 | 0% | 8.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Portage SC · Sat Oct 31 at TKO Premier SC · Sat Nov 14 vs Nationals SC-Union GMA See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Plymouth Reign | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 22 | -21 | 3 | 0.50 | LLLLW | -0.15 | +0.66 | 0% | 11.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Nationals SC-Union GMA · Sun Oct 25 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 13/14 GMA · Sat Oct 31 at Michigan Burn See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Detroit City FC West | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 18 | -15 | 3 | 0.43 | WLLLL | -0.22 | +0.81 | 0% | 11.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Nationals SC-Union GMA · Sun Nov 1 at Michigan Burn · Sat Nov 7 at Legends FC See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Liverpool FC MI GMA | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 19 | -15 | 3 | 0.38 | LLLLL | +0.11 | +0.10 | 0% | 10.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Portage SC · Sun Nov 1 at TKO Premier SC · Sun Nov 15 at Nationals SC-CA GMA See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.57 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.