Manta
ECNL Regional League Girls · GLA GU13 · 6 teams · Manta United Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:30 AM
ForeverLawn Sports Complex, Field 7 ↗ far trip
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.2 for, 1.1 against · 1.38 expected points)
| Season so far | Manta | Canton Force |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-2-2 | 0-1-2 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 0.33 |
| Goals for / game | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| Goals against / game | 1.4 | 3.7 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L D L D | L D L |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | 0–4 vs T3FC | 0–6 vs T3FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.40 | -0.85 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +1.17 | +1.17 |
Common opponents: Steel City FC — we 0–2; they 1–1. Northern Steel — we 0–0; they 1–4. T3FC — we 0–4; they 0–6.
Game plan
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They leak goals — be greedy
Canton Force concede 3.7/game; worst result 0–6 vs T3FC.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–2 vs Steel City FC, 0–0 vs Northern Steel, 0–4 vs T3FC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 37%; a draw (28%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 09:30 AM at ForeverLawn Sports Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:30 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
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What a win does
WNY Flash Erie sit 3rd on 1.00 PPG; we are on 1.00.A point moves us above WNY Flash Erie on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Canton Force game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Manta – Canton Force) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Win 1.33 PPG |
3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Loss 0.83 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 31%
- 4th 44%
- 5th 24%
- 6th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.29 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northern Steel | 2.71 (+1.71) | 1st (2.56) | 33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Steel City FC | 2.14 (+1.14) | 2nd (2.02) | 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 3 | WNY Flash Erie | 1.00 (+0.00) | 3rd (1.28) | A point next game |
How the results connect
2 chains · 4 teams
Paths of results that link Manta to Canton Force through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
5 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.33 · 6th hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 09:30 AM |
Canton Force 5th · 0-1-2 · GD -9 |
Away far trip
ForeverLawn Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.38 | 1.06 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 10:00 AM |
WNY Flash Rochester 6th · 0-0-6 · GD -17 |
Away far trip
Our Lady of Mercy HS · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
1–0 | 1.89 | 1.18 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 12:00 PM |
WNY Flash Erie 3rd · 1-2-2 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
Erie Sports Center |
●●●●○ Tough | 25% |
0–1 | 1.04 | 1.16 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
WNY Flash Erie 3rd · 1-2-2 · GD -4 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
0–1 | 1.24 | 1.17 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
WNY Flash Rochester 6th · 0-0-6 · GD -17 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
1–0 | 2.08 | 1.26 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Canton Force 5th · 0-1-2 · GD -9 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
1–1 | 1.60 | 1.29 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Northern Steel 1st · 6-1-0 · GD +20 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
0–2 | 0.31 | 1.21 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
Steel City FC 2nd · 4-3-0 · GD +10 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
0–1 | 0.54 | 1.16 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Cincinnati Elite FC |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
0–1 | 1.13 | 1.16 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northern Steel | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 1 | +20 | 19 | 2.71 | WWDWW | -0.76 | -0.19 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Steel City FC · Sat Mar 20 at WNY Flash Rochester · Sun Mar 21 at WNY Flash Erie See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Steel City FC | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 15 | 2.14 | DWDDW | -0.76 | -0.01 | 100% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Northern Steel · Sat Mar 20 at WNY Flash Erie · Sun Mar 21 at WNY Flash Rochester See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | WNY Flash Erie | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 5 | 1.00 | WLDDL | +0.26 | -0.22 | 86% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Canton Force · Sun Nov 1 vs Manta · Sat Mar 13 at Manta See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Manta | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 5 | 1.00 | DLDL | +1.17 | -0.33 | 76% | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Canton Force · Sat Oct 31 at WNY Flash Rochester · Sun Nov 1 at WNY Flash Erie See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Canton Force | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 1 | 0.33 | LDL | +1.17 | -0.21 | 38% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Manta · Sat Oct 31 at WNY Flash Erie · Sun Nov 1 at WNY Flash Rochester See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | WNY Flash Rochester | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 18 | -17 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.73 | -0.04 | 1% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Manta · Sun Nov 1 vs Canton Force · Sat Mar 13 at Canton Force See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.27 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.