Toca Fusion Premier
ECNL Regional League Girls · Frontier GU18/19 · 7 teams · Toca Fusion Athletic Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM
Paragon Star Sports Complex , Field 7 ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.3 for, 3.2 against · 0.47 expected points)
| Season so far | Toca Fusion Premier | Kansas City Surf |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-1-5 | 4-1-0 |
| Points per game | 1.30 | 2.60 |
| Goals for / game | 1.6 | 3.8 |
| Goals against / game | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W D W | W W D W W |
| Biggest win | 3–0 vs West Side Alliance Tulsa | 10–2 vs Broken Arrow Soccer Club |
| Worst loss | 1–9 vs FC Wichita Red | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.06 | +1.60 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.44 | -0.70 |
Already played this season: Sat Oct 3 1–1 vs Kansas City Surf (D)
Common opponents: West Side Alliance Tulsa — we 3–0, 1–2; they 3–1. Broken Arrow Soccer Club — we 1–0, 3–1; they 10–2. West Side Alliance OKC — we 2–3; they 3–1, 2–0.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Kansas City Surf score 3.8/game — well above the league's 1.8.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 vs Kansas City Surf BLUE.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 11%; a draw (13%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 09:00 AM at Paragon Star Sports Complex .Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
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What a win does
West Side Alliance Tulsa sit 3rd on 1.40 PPG; we are on 1.30.A point moves us above West Side Alliance Tulsa on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Kansas City Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Toca Fusion Premier – Kansas City Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.18 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Win 1.45 PPG |
3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.27 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Loss 1.18 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 15%
- 3rd 28%
- 4th 38%
- 5th 19%
- 6th
- 7th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 1.87 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Surf | 2.60 (+1.30) | 1st (2.48) | 26 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | FC Wichita Navy | 1.67 (+0.37) | 2nd (1.42) | 13 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection |
| 3 | West Side Alliance Tulsa | 1.40 (+0.10) | 3rd (1.42) | A point next game |
How the results connect
17 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Toca Fusion Premier to Kansas City Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.12 · 2nd hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM |
Kansas City Surf 1st · 4-1-0 · GD +14 |
Away Paragon Star Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–3 | 0.47 | 1.22 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 02:00 PM |
FC Wichita Navy 2nd · 3-1-2 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
Northwest YMCA Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.36 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 01:00 PM |
West Side Alliance OKC 5th · 2-1-5 · GD -10 |
Home Compass Minerals National Performance Center |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 58% |
2–1 | 1.94 | 1.29 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 21 04:00 PM |
Oklahoma Cosmos |
Home Paragon Star Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.50 | 1.31 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 22 01:00 PM |
OK Energy FC Frontier |
Home Paragon Star Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.50 | 1.32 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Kansas City Surf | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 5 | +14 | 13 | 2.60 | WWDWW | -0.70 | -0.32 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs FC Wichita Navy · Sat Oct 24 vs Toca Fusion Premier · Sat Nov 7 at West Side Alliance Tulsa See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | FC Wichita Navy | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 10 | 1.67 | WWWDL | -0.69 | +0.13 | 93% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at Kansas City Surf · Sun Oct 25 vs Toca Fusion Premier · Sat Nov 7 at Broken Arrow Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | West Side Alliance Tulsa | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 14 | 1.40 | DWWWW | -0.16 | -0.32 | 92% | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 at West Side Alliance OKC · Sat Oct 31 vs Kansas City Surf BLUE · Sat Nov 7 vs Kansas City Surf See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Toca Fusion Premier | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 25 | -9 | 13 | 1.30 | WDWLL | -0.44 | +0.12 | 81% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Kansas City Surf · Sun Oct 25 at FC Wichita Navy · Sun Nov 15 vs West Side Alliance OKC See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | West Side Alliance OKC | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 7 | 0.88 | LLWLL | +0.64 | -0.51 | 35% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Broken Arrow Soccer Club · Sun Oct 18 vs West Side Alliance Tulsa · Sun Nov 15 at Toca Fusion Premier See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Broken Arrow Soccer Club | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 39 | -30 | 3 | 0.30 | LLLWL | +0.20 | -0.05 | 0% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at West Side Alliance OKC · Sun Nov 1 vs Kansas City Surf BLUE · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Wichita Navy See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Kansas Rush Blue | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.84 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.