FC Wichita Navy
ECNL Regional League Girls · Frontier GU18/19 · 7 teams · FC Wichita (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 02:00 PM
Northwest YMCA Sports Complex, Field 1 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.1 for, 1.8 against · 1.53 expected points)
| Season so far | FC Wichita Navy | Toca Fusion Premier |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-1-2 | 4-1-6 |
| Points per game | 1.67 | 1.18 |
| Goals for / game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals against / game | 2.3 | 2.6 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L D W W W | L L L W D |
| Biggest win | 2–0 at West Side Alliance OKC | 3–0 vs West Side Alliance Tulsa |
| Worst loss | 1–4 at Toca Fusion Premier | 1–9 vs FC Wichita Red |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.26 | -0.23 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.73 | -0.09 |
Already played this season: Sun Oct 4 1–4 at Toca Fusion Premier (L)
Common opponents: West Side Alliance OKC — we 2–0, 3–1; they 2–3. Broken Arrow Soccer Club — we 3–2; they 1–0, 3–1. West Side Alliance Tulsa — we 1–1; they 3–0, 1–2.
Game plan
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Swing game — small margins
Win 44% / draw 21% / loss 35%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Confidence is low on their side
Toca Fusion Premier have lost 3 straight (form: DWLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Toca Fusion Premier game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Wichita Navy – Toca Fusion Premier) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.86 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 1.86 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 1.57 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Loss 1.43 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 42%
- 3rd 28%
- 4th 22%
- 5th 7%
- 6th
- 7th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.47 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Surf | 2.67 (+1.00) | 1st (2.56) | 31 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
How the results connect
23 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link FC Wichita Navy to Toca Fusion Premier through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.14 · 1st hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Sep 26 03:00 PM no score posted |
Kansas City Surf 1st · 5-1-0 · GD +17 |
Away far trip
Blue Valley High School |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–3 | 0.35 | 1.48 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 02:00 PM |
Toca Fusion Premier 4th · 4-1-6 · GD -12 |
Home Northwest YMCA Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
2–1 | 1.53 | 1.49 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 03:00 PM |
Broken Arrow Soccer Club 6th · 1-0-9 · GD -30 |
Away far trip
Indian Springs Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–1 | 2.09 | 1.55 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 01:00 PM |
West Side Alliance Tulsa 3rd · 4-2-4 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
RiverCity Parks |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.28 | 1.52 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 5 TBD |
Arkansas Rising |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
1–1 | 1.39 | 1.51 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 6 10:00 AM |
Arkansas Comets FC |
Home Stryker Soccer Complex · turf? |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
1–1 | 1.39 | 1.50 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 12 12:00 PM |
Kansas City Surf 1st · 5-1-0 · GD +17 |
Home Stryker Soccer Complex · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–3 | 0.53 | 1.43 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 30 TBD |
FC Tulsa Academy |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
1–1 | 1.39 | 1.42 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 31 TBD |
Sporting Springfield |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
1–1 | 1.39 | 1.42 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Kansas City Surf | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 6 | +17 | 16 | 2.67 | WDWWW | -0.64 | -0.36 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs FC Wichita Navy · Sat Nov 7 at West Side Alliance Tulsa · Sun Nov 8 at Broken Arrow Soccer Club See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | FC Wichita Navy | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 10 | 1.67 | WWWDL | -0.73 | +0.14 | 93% | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at Kansas City Surf · Sun Oct 25 vs Toca Fusion Premier · Sat Nov 7 at Broken Arrow Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | West Side Alliance Tulsa | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 14 | 1.40 | DWWWW | -0.19 | -0.29 | 93% | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 at West Side Alliance OKC · Sat Oct 31 vs Kansas City Surf BLUE · Sat Nov 7 vs Kansas City Surf See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Toca Fusion Premier | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 13 | 1.18 | DWLLL | -0.09 | -0.24 | 76% | 3.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Wichita Navy · Sun Nov 15 vs West Side Alliance OKC · Sat Nov 21 vs Oklahoma Cosmos See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | West Side Alliance OKC | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 7 | 0.88 | LLWLL | +0.67 | -0.53 | 38% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Broken Arrow Soccer Club · Sun Oct 18 vs West Side Alliance Tulsa · Sun Nov 15 at Toca Fusion Premier See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Broken Arrow Soccer Club | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 39 | -30 | 3 | 0.30 | LLLWL | +0.16 | -0.03 | 0% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at West Side Alliance OKC · Sun Nov 1 vs Kansas City Surf BLUE · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Wichita Navy See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Kansas Rush Blue | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.86 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.