OK Energy FC Frontier
ECNL Regional League Girls · Frontier GU16 · 8 teams · Oklahoma Energy FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 01:00 PM
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.6 for, 1.5 against · 2.01 expected points)
| Season so far | OK Energy FC Frontier | Arkansas Comets FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-3-0 | 4-2-3 |
| Points per game | 2.25 | 1.56 |
| Goals for / game | 4.0 | 2.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 4 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | D D D W W | W D W L L |
| Biggest win | 10–0 at Oklahoma Cosmos | 6–0 at FC Tulsa Academy |
| Worst loss | — | 0–5 vs Kansas City Surf BLUE |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.32 | +0.33 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -1.32 | +1.36 |
Common opponents: FC Tulsa Academy — we 1–0, 2–2; they 6–0. Arkansas Rising — we 2–2; they 2–1. Sporting Springfield — we 2–2; they 0–0.
Game plan
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 61% / draw 18% / loss 21%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Arkansas Comets FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (OK Energy FC Frontier – Arkansas Comets FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.33 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Win 2.33 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 2.11 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 8%
- 3rd 57%
- 4th 22%
- 5th 12%
- 6th 1%
- 7th
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.68 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Wichita Red | 3.00 (+0.75) | 1st (2.85) | 39 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Kansas City Surf BLUE | 2.36 (+0.11) | 2nd (2.30) | 27 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
How the results connect
38 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link OK Energy FC Frontier to Arkansas Comets FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
16 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.80 · 2nd hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
Arkansas Comets FC 5th · 4-2-3 · GD +5 |
Home Edmond Soccer Club |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
2–1 | 2.01 | 2.22 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 01:00 PM |
FC Wichita Red 1st · 11-0-0 · GD +60 |
Away far trip
Stryker Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.37 | 2.04 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 05:00 PM |
Oklahoma Cosmos 8th · 1-0-6 · GD -34 |
Home North Oklahoma City FC |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
6–0 | 2.95 | 2.12 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 09:00 AM |
Kansas City Surf BLUE 2nd · 8-2-1 · GD +31 |
Away far trip
Paragon Star Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–2 | 1.03 | 2.03 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 01:00 PM |
FC Wichita Navy |
Home Edmond Soccer Club |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
3–1 | 2.23 | 2.05 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 01:00 PM |
Kansas City Surf |
Home Edmond Soccer Club |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
3–1 | 2.23 | 2.06 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 5 03:00 PM |
FC Wichita Red 1st · 11-0-0 · GD +60 |
Home Edmond Soccer Club |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–3 | 0.55 | 1.96 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 6 01:00 PM |
Kansas City Surf BLUE 2nd · 8-2-1 · GD +31 |
Home Edmond Soccer Club |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–2 | 1.31 | 1.92 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 16 01:00 PM |
Arkansas Comets FC 5th · 4-2-3 · GD +5 |
Away far trip
Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
2–1 | 1.73 | 1.91 | Swing game |
| Sun Jan 17 11:00 AM |
Arkansas Rising 6th · 3-2-6 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Burns Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
2–1 | 1.94 | 1.91 | Swing game |
| Sun Jan 24 11:00 AM |
Sporting Springfield 4th · 5-3-2 · GD +12 |
Home Edmond Soccer Club |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–1 | 1.83 | 1.90 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | FC Wichita Red | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 65 | 5 | +60 | 33 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.29 | -0.16 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs West Side Alliance OKC · Sun Oct 4 at Sporting Springfield · Sun Oct 25 vs Kansas City Surf BLUE See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Kansas City Surf BLUE | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 41 | 10 | +31 | 26 | 2.36 | WWWWD | +0.80 | -0.58 | 100% | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Wichita Red · Tue Nov 3 vs Kansas City Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Oklahoma Cosmos See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | OK Energy FC Frontier | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 32 | 8 | +24 | 18 | 2.25 | WWDDD | -1.32 | +0.80 | 87% | 3.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Comets FC · Sat Nov 7 at FC Wichita Red · Sun Nov 8 vs Oklahoma Cosmos See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Sporting Springfield | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 13 | +12 | 18 | 1.80 | WLLDW | -0.31 | +0.71 | 45% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs FC Wichita Red · Sat Nov 21 at Arkansas Rising · Sun Nov 22 at Arkansas Comets FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Arkansas Comets FC | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 16 | +5 | 14 | 1.56 | LLWDW | +1.36 | -0.67 | 66% | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at OK Energy FC Frontier · Sun Nov 1 at Oklahoma Cosmos · Sat Nov 7 vs Toca Fusion Premier See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Arkansas Rising | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 11 | 1.00 | LWDLD | +0.81 | -0.47 | 2% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Kansas Rush Blue · Sun Nov 8 vs Toca Fusion Premier · Sat Nov 14 at Arkansas Comets FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | FC Tulsa Academy | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 42 | -28 | 7 | 0.64 | LLLWD | +0.93 | +0.01 | 0% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 21 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Nov 22 at Arkansas Rising · Sun Jan 10 vs Broken Arrow Soccer Club See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Oklahoma Cosmos | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 40 | -34 | 3 | 0.43 | LLLLL | -0.06 | +0.99 | 0% | 8.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Arkansas Comets FC · Sat Nov 7 at Kansas City Surf BLUE · Sun Nov 8 at FC Wichita Red See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.46 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.