Team Boca

ECNL Regional League Girls · Florida GU18/19 · 8 teams · Team Boca (all teams)

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1st

4-0-1 record · 5 played

2.40 points per game

+8 goal diff · 13–5

WWWWLlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.7

-0.34 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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Team Boca
1st · 2.40 PPG

Athletic Club Florida
5th · 1.50 PPG

Mullins Park, Field 1 - Turf ↗ · turf far trip

68% 16% 16%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.8 for, 1.3 against · 2.21 expected points)

Season so far	Team Boca	Athletic Club Florida
Position	1st	5th
Record (W-D-L)	4-0-1	2-0-2
Points per game	2.40	1.50
Goals for / game	2.6	1.5
Goals against / game	1.0	2.8
Clean sheets	1	0
Held scoreless	0	2
Form (recent first)	L W W W W	W W L L
Biggest win	4–0 vs Athletic Club Florida	4–3 vs Cape Coral SA
Worst loss	1–2 vs ACF Sunrise	0–4 at Team Boca
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.86	-0.66
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.34	-0.01

Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 4–0 vs Athletic Club Florida (W)

Common opponents: SWFL PREMIER FC — we 2–1; they 2–1. Cape Coral SA — we 4–1; they 4–3. AC Florida West — we 2–1; they 0–3.

Game plan

They leak goals — be greedy
Athletic Club Florida concede 2.8/game; worst result 0–4 at Team Boca.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Swing game — small margins
Win 68% / draw 16% / loss 16%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Mullins Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Athletic Club Florida game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Team Boca – Athletic Club Florida) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.50 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 2.50 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.17 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	1st— holds	2nd▼ down 1
Loss 2.00 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1	4th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

55% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.7 average finish

1st 55%
2nd 25%
3rd 14%
4th 6%
5th <1%
6th <1%
7th
8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

11 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Team Boca to Athletic Club Florida through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

6 favour us

2 even

3 favour them

+1.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

11 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.02 · 5th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Sep 12 01:00 PM no score posted	Athletic Club Florida Miami 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +5	Home SPANISH RIVER SPORTS COMPLEX	●●●○○ Toss-up	48%	1–1	1.67	2.28	Swing game
Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM	Athletic Club Florida 5th · 2-0-2 · GD -5	Away far trip Mullins Park · turf	●●○○○ Lean win	68%	2–1	2.21	2.27	Swing game
Sun Oct 25 12:15 PM	Athletic Club Florida Miami 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +5	Away far trip Southeast Park	●●●●○ Tough	39%	1–1	1.40	2.16	Upside
Sat Oct 31 02:30 PM	SFFA 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +3	Away Canyon District Park	●●●●○ Tough	41%	1–1	1.47	2.08	Upside
Sat Apr 3 05:00 PM	Cape Coral SA 8th · 1-1-5 · GD -8	Home Fau Glades	●○○○○ Favorable	78%	3–1	2.45	2.12	Bank it
Sun Apr 4 11:00 AM	SWFL PREMIER FC 4th · 3-0-2 · GD +3	Home Fau Glades	●●●○○ Toss-up	54%	2–1	1.84	2.10	Swing game
Sat Apr 10 01:00 PM	AC Florida West 7th · 1-1-4 · GD -4	Home Fau Glades	●●○○○ Lean win	72%	2–1	2.31	2.11	Bank it
Sun Apr 11 09:00 AM	ACF Sunrise 6th · 1-1-2 · GD -2	Away far trip Nob Hill Soccer Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	55%	1–0	1.90	2.10	Swing game
Sat Apr 17 11:00 AM	SFFA 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +3	Home Fau Glades	●●●○○ Toss-up	49%	1–1	1.71	2.07	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Team Boca

2.40

WWWWL

-0.34

+0.02

100%

1.7

L	Sat Oct 3	vs	ACF Sunrise (6th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 27	at	AC Florida West (7th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Cape Coral SA (8th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	SWFL PREMIER FC (4th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Athletic Club Florida (5th)	4–0

Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Athletic Club Florida Miami · Sat Oct 24 at Athletic Club Florida · Sun Oct 25 at Athletic Club Florida Miami See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 12 (no score yet)	vs	Athletic Club Florida Miami (3rd)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Athletic Club Florida (5th)	2–1	68%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Athletic Club Florida Miami (3rd)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	SFFA (2nd)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Cape Coral SA (8th)	3–1	78%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	SWFL PREMIER FC (4th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	AC Florida West (7th)	2–1	72%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	ACF Sunrise (6th)	1–0	55%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	SFFA (2nd)	1–1	49%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SFFA

2.25

LWWW

-0.22

+0.03

93%

2.8

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	ACF Sunrise (6th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	AC Florida West (7th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Cape Coral SA (8th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Athletic Club Florida Miami (3rd)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Athletic Club Florida Miami · Sun Oct 25 at Athletic Club Florida · Sat Oct 31 vs Team Boca See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Athletic Club Florida Miami (3rd)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Athletic Club Florida (5th)	1–1	56%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Team Boca (1st)	1–1	34%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Athletic Club Florida (5th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	SWFL PREMIER FC (4th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	SWFL PREMIER FC (4th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Cape Coral SA (8th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	ACF Sunrise (6th)	1–0	45%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	AC Florida West (7th)	1–0	60%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Team Boca (1st)	1–1	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Athletic Club Florida Miami

2.00

WWDLW

-0.14

-0.03

95%

2.6

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Cape Coral SA (8th)	3–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	SWFL PREMIER FC (4th)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 20	at	ACF Sunrise (6th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	AC Florida West (7th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	SFFA (2nd)	1–0

Next: Sat Sep 12 at Team Boca · Sat Oct 24 vs SFFA · Sun Oct 25 vs Team Boca See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 12 (no score yet)	at	Team Boca (1st)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	SFFA (2nd)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Team Boca (1st)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Athletic Club Florida (5th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	ACF Sunrise (6th)	1–0	58%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	AC Florida West (7th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Cape Coral SA (8th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	SWFL PREMIER FC (4th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Athletic Club Florida (5th)	2–1	71%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SWFL PREMIER FC

1.80

LWWLW

-0.10

-0.01

86%

3.3

W	Sun Oct 18	at	AC Florida West (7th)	2–1
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Athletic Club Florida (5th)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Athletic Club Florida Miami (3rd)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Cape Coral SA (8th)	4–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Team Boca (1st)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AC Florida West · Sun Oct 25 vs ACF Sunrise · Sat Mar 6 vs SFFA See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	AC Florida West (7th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	ACF Sunrise (6th)	1–0	54%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	SFFA (2nd)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	ACF Sunrise (6th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	SFFA (2nd)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Team Boca (1st)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Athletic Club Florida (5th)	2–1	66%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Athletic Club Florida Miami (3rd)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Cape Coral SA (8th)	2–1	57%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Athletic Club Florida

-5

1.50

LLWW

-0.01

+0.15

10%

5.9

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	SWFL PREMIER FC (4th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Cape Coral SA (8th)	4–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	AC Florida West (7th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Team Boca (1st)	0–4

Next: Mon Jan 1 vs ACF Sunrise · Sat Oct 24 vs Team Boca · Sun Oct 25 vs SFFA See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	vs	ACF Sunrise (6th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Team Boca (1st)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	SFFA (2nd)	1–1	22%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Athletic Club Florida Miami (3rd)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	SFFA (2nd)	1–2	16%
·	Mon Feb 22	at	ACF Sunrise (6th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	AC Florida West (7th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	SWFL PREMIER FC (4th)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Cape Coral SA (8th)	2–2	36%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Athletic Club Florida Miami (3rd)	1–2	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

ACF Sunrise

-2

1.00

DWLL

+0.26

-0.04

14%

5.6

L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Cape Coral SA (8th)	0–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	SFFA (2nd)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Team Boca (1st)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Athletic Club Florida Miami (3rd)	1–1

Next: Mon Jan 1 at Athletic Club Florida · Sun Aug 23 at AC Florida West · Sat Oct 24 at Cape Coral SA See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	at	Athletic Club Florida (5th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Aug 23 (no score yet)	at	AC Florida West (7th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Cape Coral SA (8th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	SWFL PREMIER FC (4th)	0–1	22%
·	Mon Feb 22	vs	Athletic Club Florida (5th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Athletic Club Florida Miami (3rd)	0–1	18%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	SWFL PREMIER FC (4th)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	SFFA (2nd)	0–1	26%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Team Boca (1st)	0–1	21%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	AC Florida West (7th)	1–1	43%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AC Florida West

-4

0.67

LWLLL

+0.15

+0.04

6.8

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	SWFL PREMIER FC (4th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Team Boca (1st)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	SFFA (2nd)	1–3
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Athletic Club Florida (5th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Athletic Club Florida Miami (3rd)	1–4
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Cape Coral SA (8th)	1–1

Next: Sun Aug 23 vs ACF Sunrise · Sat Oct 24 at SWFL PREMIER FC · Sun Oct 25 at Cape Coral SA See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Aug 23 (no score yet)	vs	ACF Sunrise (6th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SWFL PREMIER FC (4th)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Cape Coral SA (8th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Athletic Club Florida (5th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Athletic Club Florida Miami (3rd)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Team Boca (1st)	1–2	12%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	SFFA (2nd)	0–1	18%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	ACF Sunrise (6th)	1–1	30%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cape Coral SA

-8

0.57

LLLLW

+0.11

7.2

W	Sun Oct 11	at	ACF Sunrise (6th)	2–0
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Athletic Club Florida Miami (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Athletic Club Florida (5th)	3–4
L	Sun Sep 27	at	SWFL PREMIER FC (4th)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Team Boca (1st)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	SFFA (2nd)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 13	at	AC Florida West (7th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs ACF Sunrise · Sun Oct 25 vs AC Florida West · Sat Apr 3 at Team Boca See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	ACF Sunrise (6th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	AC Florida West (7th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Team Boca (1st)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	SFFA (2nd)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Athletic Club Florida Miami (3rd)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Athletic Club Florida (5th)	2–2	44%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	SWFL PREMIER FC (4th)	1–2	23%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.57 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.