Athletic Club Florida Miami
ECNL Regional League Girls · Florida GU18/19 · 8 teams · Athletic Club Florida (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.4 for, 1.1 against · 1.56 expected points)
| Season so far | Athletic Club Florida Miami | SFFA |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-1-1 | 3-0-1 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 2.25 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W L D W W | W W W L |
| Biggest win | 4–1 at AC Florida West | 3–1 at AC Florida West |
| Worst loss | 1–2 vs SWFL PREMIER FC | 0–1 vs Athletic Club Florida Miami |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.57 | +0.38 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.14 | -0.22 |
Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 1–0 at SFFA (W)
Common opponents: AC Florida West — we 4–1; they 3–1. ACF Sunrise — we 1–1; they 1–0. Cape Coral SA — we 3–1; they 2–1.
Game plan
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Hard to break down
SFFA concede only 0.8/game with 1 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 43% / draw 26% / loss 30%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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They arrive in form
SFFA have won 3 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the SFFA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Athletic Club Florida Miami – SFFA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.83 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 5th▼ down 2 |
| Win 2.17 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.83 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 5th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.67 PPG |
4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 20%
- 2nd 30%
- 3rd 28%
- 4th 17%
- 5th 4%
- 6th 1%
- 7th <1%
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.64 PPG if we win out).
How the results connect
10 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Athletic Club Florida Miami to SFFA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.03 · 7th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Sep 12 01:00 PM no score posted |
Team Boca 1st · 4-0-1 · GD +8 |
Away far trip
SPANISH RIVER SPORTS COMPLEX |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–1 | 1.11 | 1.85 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM |
SFFA 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +3 |
Home Miami Dade College |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.56 | 1.81 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 12:15 PM |
Team Boca 1st · 4-0-1 · GD +8 |
Home Southeast Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.36 | 1.75 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 10:30 AM |
Athletic Club Florida 5th · 2-0-2 · GD -5 |
Away Miami Dade College Kendall Campus |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
2–1 | 2.04 | 1.78 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 01:30 PM |
ACF Sunrise 6th · 1-1-2 · GD -2 |
Home Miami Dade College |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 58% |
1–0 | 1.97 | 1.80 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 7 01:30 PM |
AC Florida West 7th · 1-1-4 · GD -4 |
Home Miami Dade College |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–1 | 2.15 | 1.83 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 11:00 AM |
Cape Coral SA 8th · 1-1-5 · GD -8 |
Away far trip
Cape Coral Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
2–1 | 2.06 | 1.85 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 11:00 AM |
SWFL PREMIER FC 4th · 3-0-2 · GD +3 |
Away far trip
Lakewood Ranch Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
1–1 | 1.41 | 1.82 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 01:15 PM |
Athletic Club Florida 5th · 2-0-2 · GD -5 |
Home Miami Dade College |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
2–1 | 2.28 | 1.85 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Team Boca | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 12 | 2.40 | WWWWL | -0.34 | +0.02 | 99% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Athletic Club Florida Miami · Sat Oct 24 at Athletic Club Florida · Sun Oct 25 at Athletic Club Florida Miami See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | SFFA | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 9 | 2.25 | LWWW | -0.22 | +0.03 | 93% | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Athletic Club Florida Miami · Sun Oct 25 at Athletic Club Florida · Sat Oct 31 vs Team Boca See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Athletic Club Florida Miami | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 10 | 2.00 | WWDLW | -0.14 | -0.03 | 95% | 2.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Team Boca · Sat Oct 24 vs SFFA · Sun Oct 25 vs Team Boca See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | SWFL PREMIER FC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 9 | 1.80 | LWWLW | -0.10 | -0.01 | 85% | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AC Florida West · Sun Oct 25 vs ACF Sunrise · Sat Mar 6 vs SFFA See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Athletic Club Florida | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 6 | 1.50 | LLWW | -0.01 | +0.15 | 9% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs ACF Sunrise · Sat Oct 24 vs Team Boca · Sun Oct 25 vs SFFA See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | ACF Sunrise | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 | 1.00 | DWLL | +0.26 | -0.04 | 17% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Athletic Club Florida · Sun Aug 23 at AC Florida West · Sat Oct 24 at Cape Coral SA See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | AC Florida West | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 4 | 0.67 | LWLLL | +0.15 | +0.04 | 2% | 6.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Aug 23 vs ACF Sunrise · Sat Oct 24 at SWFL PREMIER FC · Sun Oct 25 at Cape Coral SA See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Cape Coral SA | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 4 | 0.57 | LLLLW | +0.11 | +0.11 | 1% | 7.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs ACF Sunrise · Sun Oct 25 vs AC Florida West · Sat Apr 3 at Team Boca See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.57 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.