Tampa Bay United

ECNL Regional League Girls · Florida GU18/19 · 9 teams · Tampa Bay United (all teams)

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1st

4-1-0 record · 5 played

2.60 points per game

+12 goal diff · 15–3

DWWWWlast 5

99% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.5

-0.16 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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Tampa Bay United
1st · 2.60 PPG

Florida Kraze Krush
3rd · 2.50 PPG

Ed Radice Sports Complex, Field 6 ↗

38% 25% 37%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.4 for, 1.4 against · 1.39 expected points)

Season so far	Tampa Bay United	Florida Kraze Krush
Position	1st	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	4-1-0	5-0-1
Points per game	2.60	2.50
Goals for / game	3.0	3.2
Goals against / game	0.6	0.5
Clean sheets	2	4
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	W W W W D	L W W W W
Biggest win	6–1 vs Sporting SA JAX	8–0 at Sporting SA JAX
Worst loss	—	1–2 vs Florida Premier FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.38	+1.55
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.16	-0.47

Common opponents: Florida Premier FC — we 0–0; they 1–2. Jacksonville FC — we 2–1; they 1–0. Sporting SA JAX — we 6–1; they 8–0. Fishhawk Premier FC — we 3–1; they 5–0.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Florida Kraze Krush score 3.2/game — well above the league's 1.9.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
Florida Kraze Krush concede only 0.5/game with 4 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 vs Florida Premier FC.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 38%; a draw (25%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Florida Kraze Krush game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Tampa Bay United – Florida Kraze Krush) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 2.33 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 2	3rd▼ down 2
Win 2.67 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.33 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 2	3rd▼ down 2
Loss 2.17 PPG	3rd▼ down 2	3rd▼ down 2	3rd▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we fall to at least 2nd even if every rival loses, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

13% finish 1st

99% top 4

1% below the top 4

2.5 average finish

1st 13%
2nd 35%
3rd 42%
4th 9%
5th 1%
6th
7th
8th
9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

34 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Tampa Bay United to Florida Kraze Krush through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

16 favour us

4 even

14 favour them

-0.1 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.17 · 7th hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Sep 19 02:00 PM no score posted	Sporting SA TLH 9th · 0-0-4 · GD -9	Away far trip Florida State University Rec Sportsplex	●○○○○ Favorable	82%	3–0	2.56	2.59	Bank it
Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM	Florida Kraze Krush 3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +16	Home Ed Radice Sports Complex	●●●●○ Tough	38%	1–1	1.39	2.42	Upside
Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM	Sporting SA TLH 9th · 0-0-4 · GD -9	Home Ed Radice Sports Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	88%	3–0	2.71	2.46	Bank it
Sun Jan 10 11:00 AM	Fishhawk Premier FC 6th · 2-1-6 · GD -20	Home Fishhawk Sports Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	92%	4–1	2.82	2.50	Bank it
Wed Mar 3 08:15 PM	Florida Premier FC 2nd · 7-2-0 · GD +25	Away far trip Starkey Ranch District Park	●●●●● Very tough	22%	1–1	0.89	2.34	Upside
Sat Mar 6 04:00 PM	Sporting SA JAX 8th · 1-1-7 · GD -27	Away far trip Indian Trails Sports Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	91%	3–0	2.78	2.38	Bank it
Sun Mar 7 12:30 PM	Jacksonville FC 4th · 5-1-3 · GD +10	Away far trip Patton Park · turf?	●●●○○ Toss-up	42%	1–1	1.52	2.31	Swing game
Sat Apr 3 01:00 PM	St. Petersburg FC 7th · 1-0-5 · GD -9	Home Ed Radice Sports Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	85%	3–0	2.65	2.33	Bank it
Sat Apr 10 11:00 AM	Florida Kraze Krush 3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +16	Away far trip Central Winds	●●●●○ Tough	30%	1–1	1.15	2.25	Upside
Sun Apr 11 11:00 AM	Seminole United 5th · 4-0-3 · GD +2	Away far trip Seminole	●●○○○ Lean win	60%	2–1	2.01	2.23	Swing game
Sun Apr 18 11:00 AM	St. Petersburg FC 7th · 1-0-5 · GD -9	Away far trip Sawgrass Lake Complex · grass	●○○○○ Favorable	79%	2–0	2.50	2.25	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Tampa Bay United

+12

2.60

DWWWW

-0.16

-0.17

99%

2.5

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Seminole United (5th)	4–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Fishhawk Premier FC (6th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Sporting SA JAX (8th)	6–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Jacksonville FC (4th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Florida Premier FC (2nd)	0–0

Next: Sat Sep 19 at Sporting SA TLH · Sat Oct 24 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sun Oct 25 vs Sporting SA TLH See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 19 (no score yet)	at	Sporting SA TLH (9th)	3–0	82%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Florida Kraze Krush (3rd)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Sporting SA TLH (9th)	3–0	88%
·	Sun Jan 10	vs	Fishhawk Premier FC (6th)	4–1	92%
·	Wed Mar 3	at	Florida Premier FC (2nd)	1–1	22%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Sporting SA JAX (8th)	3–0	91%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Jacksonville FC (4th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	St. Petersburg FC (7th)	3–0	85%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Florida Kraze Krush (3rd)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Seminole United (5th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	St. Petersburg FC (7th)	2–0	79%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Florida Premier FC

+25

2.56

WWWWW

-0.24

100%

1.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Sporting SA JAX (8th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Jacksonville FC (4th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Sporting SA TLH (9th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Florida Kraze Krush (3rd)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Seminole United (5th)	4–0
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Tampa Bay United (1st)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Fishhawk Premier FC (6th)	7–1
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Jacksonville FC (4th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Sporting SA JAX (8th)	7–0

Next: Sun Oct 4 vs St. Petersburg FC · Wed Mar 3 vs Tampa Bay United · Sat Mar 6 vs Fishhawk Premier FC See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	vs	St. Petersburg FC (7th)	3–0	91%
·	Wed Mar 3	vs	Tampa Bay United (1st)	1–1	55%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Fishhawk Premier FC (6th)	5–0	96%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Florida Kraze Krush (3rd)	1–1	51%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Seminole United (5th)	2–0	80%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	St. Petersburg FC (7th)	3–0	86%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Sporting SA TLH (9th)	3–0	89%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Florida Kraze Krush

+16

2.50

WWWWL

-0.47

+0.01

99%

2.4

L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Florida Premier FC (2nd)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Fishhawk Premier FC (6th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Jacksonville FC (4th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Sporting SA JAX (8th)	8–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Sporting SA TLH (9th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	St. Petersburg FC (7th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 17 at Seminole United · Sat Oct 24 at Tampa Bay United · Sun Oct 25 at St. Petersburg FC See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	at	Seminole United (5th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Tampa Bay United (1st)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	St. Petersburg FC (7th)	2–0	81%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Sporting SA TLH (9th)	3–0	84%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Seminole United (5th)	2–0	72%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Florida Premier FC (2nd)	1–1	25%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Fishhawk Premier FC (6th)	4–1	89%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Tampa Bay United (1st)	1–1	46%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Sporting SA JAX (8th)	4–0	95%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Jacksonville FC (4th)	1–1	54%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Jacksonville FC

+10

1.78

LWWLW

+0.08

-0.33

90%

3.9

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Fishhawk Premier FC (6th)	6–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Florida Premier FC (2nd)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Sporting SA JAX (8th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	St. Petersburg FC (7th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Tampa Bay United (1st)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Florida Kraze Krush (3rd)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Seminole United (5th)	1–0
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Florida Premier FC (2nd)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Fishhawk Premier FC (6th)	6–1

Next: Sun Feb 28 at Sporting SA TLH · Sat Mar 6 vs St. Petersburg FC · Sun Mar 7 vs Tampa Bay United See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Sporting SA TLH (9th)	2–0	72%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	St. Petersburg FC (7th)	2–0	77%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Tampa Bay United (1st)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Sporting SA JAX (8th)	3–0	89%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Seminole United (5th)	1–1	50%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Sporting SA TLH (9th)	2–0	80%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Florida Kraze Krush (3rd)	1–1	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Seminole United

1.71

WLWWL

-0.19

+0.15

12%

4.9

L	Sun Oct 4	at	Tampa Bay United (1st)	0–4
W	Sat Oct 3	at	St. Petersburg FC (7th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Fishhawk Premier FC (6th)	5–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Florida Premier FC (2nd)	0–4
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Sporting SA JAX (8th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Jacksonville FC (4th)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	St. Petersburg FC (7th)	3–0

Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Sporting SA TLH · Sat Oct 17 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sun Mar 7 at Sporting SA TLH See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 12 (no score yet)	vs	Sporting SA TLH (9th)	2–1	69%
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	vs	Florida Kraze Krush (3rd)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Sporting SA TLH (9th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Florida Kraze Krush (3rd)	0–2	12%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Fishhawk Premier FC (6th)	3–1	65%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Florida Premier FC (2nd)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Jacksonville FC (4th)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Tampa Bay United (1st)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Sporting SA JAX (8th)	3–1	82%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Fishhawk Premier FC

-20

0.78

LLWWL

+0.15

+0.26

6.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Jacksonville FC (4th)	0–6
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sporting SA JAX (8th)	5–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Sporting SA TLH (9th)	5–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Tampa Bay United (1st)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Seminole United (5th)	2–5
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Florida Kraze Krush (3rd)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Florida Premier FC (2nd)	1–7
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Sporting SA JAX (8th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Jacksonville FC (4th)	1–6

Next: Sun Jan 10 at Tampa Bay United · Sun Feb 21 vs St. Petersburg FC · Sat Mar 6 at Florida Premier FC See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Jan 10	at	Tampa Bay United (1st)	1–4	3%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	St. Petersburg FC (7th)	2–2	45%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Florida Premier FC (2nd)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Seminole United (5th)	1–3	20%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Florida Kraze Krush (3rd)	1–4	4%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	St. Petersburg FC (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Sporting SA TLH (9th)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

St. Petersburg FC

-9

0.50

LWLLL

-0.11

+0.28

7.2

L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Seminole United (5th)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Jacksonville FC (4th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Sporting SA JAX (8th)	1–3
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Sporting SA TLH (9th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Seminole United (5th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Florida Kraze Krush (3rd)	0–1

Next: Sun Oct 4 at Florida Premier FC · Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting SA TLH · Sun Oct 25 vs Florida Kraze Krush See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	at	Florida Premier FC (2nd)	0–3	2%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sporting SA TLH (9th)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Florida Kraze Krush (3rd)	0–2	6%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Fishhawk Premier FC (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Jacksonville FC (4th)	0–2	8%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Sporting SA JAX (8th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Tampa Bay United (1st)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Florida Premier FC (2nd)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Fishhawk Premier FC (6th)	2–2	45%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Tampa Bay United (1st)	0–2	8%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting SA JAX

-27

0.44

WLLLL

+0.41

+0.08

8.3

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Florida Premier FC (2nd)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Fishhawk Premier FC (6th)	2–5
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Jacksonville FC (4th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Tampa Bay United (1st)	1–6
W	Sat Sep 26	at	St. Petersburg FC (7th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Seminole United (5th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Florida Kraze Krush (3rd)	0–8
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Fishhawk Premier FC (6th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Florida Premier FC (2nd)	0–7

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Sporting SA TLH · Sat Mar 6 vs Tampa Bay United · Sun Mar 7 vs St. Petersburg FC See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Sporting SA TLH (9th)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Tampa Bay United (1st)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	St. Petersburg FC (7th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Jacksonville FC (4th)	0–3	3%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Sporting SA TLH (9th)	1–2	30%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Florida Kraze Krush (3rd)	0–4	1%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Seminole United (5th)	1–3	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting SA TLH

-9

0.00

LLLL

+0.22

+0.13

7.5

L	Sun Oct 4	at	Fishhawk Premier FC (6th)	1–5
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Florida Premier FC (2nd)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	St. Petersburg FC (7th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Florida Kraze Krush (3rd)	1–3

Next: Sat Sep 12 at Seminole United · Sat Sep 19 vs Tampa Bay United · Sat Oct 24 at St. Petersburg FC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 12 (no score yet)	at	Seminole United (5th)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Sep 19 (no score yet)	vs	Tampa Bay United (1st)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	St. Petersburg FC (7th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Tampa Bay United (1st)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Sporting SA JAX (8th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Jacksonville FC (4th)	0–2	12%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Florida Kraze Krush (3rd)	0–3	6%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Seminole United (5th)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Sporting SA JAX (8th)	2–1	50%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Jacksonville FC (4th)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Fishhawk Premier FC (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Florida Premier FC (2nd)	0–3	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.92 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.