Jacksonville FC

ECNL Regional League Girls · Florida GU18/19 · 9 teams · Jacksonville FC (all teams)

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4th

5-1-3 record · 9 played

1.78 points per game

+10 goal diff · 19–9

LWWLWlast 5

90% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.9

+0.08 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Feb 28, 01:00 PM

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Jacksonville FC
4th · 1.78 PPG

Sporting SA TLH
9th · 0.00 PPG

Florida State University Rec Sportsplex, Field D ↗ far trip

72% 16% 12%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.6 for, 1.0 against · 2.33 expected points)

Season so far	Jacksonville FC	Sporting SA TLH
Position	4th	9th
Record (W-D-L)	5-1-3	0-0-4
Points per game	1.78	0.00
Goals for / game	2.1	1.0
Goals against / game	1.0	3.3
Clean sheets	2	0
Held scoreless	2	0
Form (recent first)	W L W W L	L L L L
Biggest win	6–0 at Fishhawk Premier FC	—
Worst loss	0–2 at Florida Premier FC	1–5 at Fishhawk Premier FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.84	-1.15
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.08	+0.22

Common opponents: Fishhawk Premier FC — we 6–1, 6–0; they 1–5. Florida Premier FC — we 1–1, 0–2; they 1–3. Florida Kraze Krush — we 0–1; they 1–3. St. Petersburg FC — we 2–1; they 1–2.

Game plan

They leak goals — be greedy
Sporting SA TLH concede 3.2/game; worst result 1–5 at Fishhawk Premier FC.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 vs Florida Kraze Krush, 0–2 at Florida Premier FC.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 72% chance; likely score 2–0.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Confidence is low on their side
Sporting SA TLH have lost 4 straight (form: LLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Florida State University Rec Sportsplex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sporting SA TLH game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Jacksonville FC – Sporting SA TLH) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Feb 22 – Sun Feb 28); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.90 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Win 1.90 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Draw 1.70 PPG	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1
Loss 1.60 PPG	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–0 win we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

90% top 4

10% below the top 4

3.9 average finish

1st <1%
2nd 2%
3rd 16%
4th 72%
5th 10%
6th
7th
8th
9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.31 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Tampa Bay United	2.60 (+0.82)	3rd (2.25)	26 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
2	Florida Premier FC	2.56 (+0.78)	1st (2.52)	25 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Florida Kraze Krush	2.50 (+0.72)	2nd (2.25)	24 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection

How the results connect

30 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Jacksonville FC to Sporting SA TLH through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

24 favour us

3 even

3 favour them

+3.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.33 · 9th hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Feb 28 01:00 PM	Sporting SA TLH 9th · 0-0-4 · GD -9	Away far trip Florida State University Rec Sportsplex	●●○○○ Lean win	72%	2–0	2.33	1.83	Bank it
Sat Mar 6 02:30 PM	St. Petersburg FC 7th · 1-0-5 · GD -9	Home Patton Park · turf?	●○○○○ Favorable	77%	2–0	2.46	1.89	Bank it
Sun Mar 7 12:30 PM	Tampa Bay United 1st · 4-1-0 · GD +12	Home Patton Park · turf?	●●●●○ Tough	33%	1–1	1.23	1.83	Upside
Sat Apr 3 12:30 PM	Sporting SA JAX 8th · 1-1-7 · GD -27	Home Patton Park	●○○○○ Favorable	89%	3–0	2.75	1.91	Bank it
Sat Apr 10 11:00 AM	Seminole United 5th · 4-0-3 · GD +2	Away far trip Seminole	●●●○○ Toss-up	50%	1–1	1.71	1.89	Swing game
Sun Apr 11 12:30 PM	Sporting SA TLH 9th · 0-0-4 · GD -9	Home Patton Park	●○○○○ Favorable	80%	2–0	2.52	1.93	Bank it
Sat Apr 17 11:00 AM	Florida Kraze Krush 3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +16	Away far trip Central Winds	●●●●● Very tough	22%	1–1	0.91	1.87	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Tampa Bay United

+12

2.60

DWWWW

-0.16

-0.17

99%

2.5

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Seminole United (5th)	4–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Fishhawk Premier FC (6th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Sporting SA JAX (8th)	6–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Jacksonville FC (4th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Florida Premier FC (2nd)	0–0

Next: Sat Sep 19 at Sporting SA TLH · Sat Oct 24 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sun Oct 25 vs Sporting SA TLH See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 19 (no score yet)	at	Sporting SA TLH (9th)	3–0	82%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Florida Kraze Krush (3rd)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Sporting SA TLH (9th)	3–0	88%
·	Sun Jan 10	vs	Fishhawk Premier FC (6th)	4–1	92%
·	Wed Mar 3	at	Florida Premier FC (2nd)	1–1	22%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Sporting SA JAX (8th)	3–0	91%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Jacksonville FC (4th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	St. Petersburg FC (7th)	3–0	85%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Florida Kraze Krush (3rd)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Seminole United (5th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	St. Petersburg FC (7th)	2–0	79%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Florida Premier FC

+25

2.56

WWWWW

-0.24

100%

1.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Sporting SA JAX (8th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Jacksonville FC (4th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Sporting SA TLH (9th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Florida Kraze Krush (3rd)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Seminole United (5th)	4–0
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Tampa Bay United (1st)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Fishhawk Premier FC (6th)	7–1
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Jacksonville FC (4th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Sporting SA JAX (8th)	7–0

Next: Sun Oct 4 vs St. Petersburg FC · Wed Mar 3 vs Tampa Bay United · Sat Mar 6 vs Fishhawk Premier FC See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	vs	St. Petersburg FC (7th)	3–0	91%
·	Wed Mar 3	vs	Tampa Bay United (1st)	1–1	55%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Fishhawk Premier FC (6th)	5–0	96%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Florida Kraze Krush (3rd)	1–1	51%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Seminole United (5th)	2–0	80%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	St. Petersburg FC (7th)	3–0	86%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Sporting SA TLH (9th)	3–0	89%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Florida Kraze Krush

+16

2.50

WWWWL

-0.47

+0.01

99%

2.4

L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Florida Premier FC (2nd)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Fishhawk Premier FC (6th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Jacksonville FC (4th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Sporting SA JAX (8th)	8–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Sporting SA TLH (9th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	St. Petersburg FC (7th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 17 at Seminole United · Sat Oct 24 at Tampa Bay United · Sun Oct 25 at St. Petersburg FC See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	at	Seminole United (5th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Tampa Bay United (1st)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	St. Petersburg FC (7th)	2–0	81%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Sporting SA TLH (9th)	3–0	84%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Seminole United (5th)	2–0	72%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Florida Premier FC (2nd)	1–1	25%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Fishhawk Premier FC (6th)	4–1	89%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Tampa Bay United (1st)	1–1	46%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Sporting SA JAX (8th)	4–0	95%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Jacksonville FC (4th)	1–1	54%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Jacksonville FC

+10

1.78

LWWLW

+0.08

-0.33

90%

3.9

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Fishhawk Premier FC (6th)	6–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Florida Premier FC (2nd)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Sporting SA JAX (8th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	St. Petersburg FC (7th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Tampa Bay United (1st)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Florida Kraze Krush (3rd)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Seminole United (5th)	1–0
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Florida Premier FC (2nd)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Fishhawk Premier FC (6th)	6–1

Next: Sun Feb 28 at Sporting SA TLH · Sat Mar 6 vs St. Petersburg FC · Sun Mar 7 vs Tampa Bay United See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Sporting SA TLH (9th)	2–0	72%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	St. Petersburg FC (7th)	2–0	77%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Tampa Bay United (1st)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Sporting SA JAX (8th)	3–0	89%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Seminole United (5th)	1–1	50%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Sporting SA TLH (9th)	2–0	80%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Florida Kraze Krush (3rd)	1–1	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Seminole United

1.71

WLWWL

-0.19

+0.15

12%

4.9

L	Sun Oct 4	at	Tampa Bay United (1st)	0–4
W	Sat Oct 3	at	St. Petersburg FC (7th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Fishhawk Premier FC (6th)	5–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Florida Premier FC (2nd)	0–4
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Sporting SA JAX (8th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Jacksonville FC (4th)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	St. Petersburg FC (7th)	3–0

Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Sporting SA TLH · Sat Oct 17 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sun Mar 7 at Sporting SA TLH See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 12 (no score yet)	vs	Sporting SA TLH (9th)	2–1	69%
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	vs	Florida Kraze Krush (3rd)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Sporting SA TLH (9th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Florida Kraze Krush (3rd)	0–2	12%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Fishhawk Premier FC (6th)	3–1	65%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Florida Premier FC (2nd)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Jacksonville FC (4th)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Tampa Bay United (1st)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Sporting SA JAX (8th)	3–1	82%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Fishhawk Premier FC

-20

0.78

LLWWL

+0.15

+0.26

6.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Jacksonville FC (4th)	0–6
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sporting SA JAX (8th)	5–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Sporting SA TLH (9th)	5–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Tampa Bay United (1st)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Seminole United (5th)	2–5
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Florida Kraze Krush (3rd)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Florida Premier FC (2nd)	1–7
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Sporting SA JAX (8th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Jacksonville FC (4th)	1–6

Next: Sun Jan 10 at Tampa Bay United · Sun Feb 21 vs St. Petersburg FC · Sat Mar 6 at Florida Premier FC See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Jan 10	at	Tampa Bay United (1st)	1–4	3%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	St. Petersburg FC (7th)	2–2	45%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Florida Premier FC (2nd)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Seminole United (5th)	1–3	20%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Florida Kraze Krush (3rd)	1–4	4%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	St. Petersburg FC (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Sporting SA TLH (9th)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

St. Petersburg FC

-9

0.50

LWLLL

-0.11

+0.28

7.2

L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Seminole United (5th)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Jacksonville FC (4th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Sporting SA JAX (8th)	1–3
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Sporting SA TLH (9th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Seminole United (5th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Florida Kraze Krush (3rd)	0–1

Next: Sun Oct 4 at Florida Premier FC · Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting SA TLH · Sun Oct 25 vs Florida Kraze Krush See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	at	Florida Premier FC (2nd)	0–3	2%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sporting SA TLH (9th)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Florida Kraze Krush (3rd)	0–2	6%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Fishhawk Premier FC (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Jacksonville FC (4th)	0–2	8%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Sporting SA JAX (8th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Tampa Bay United (1st)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Florida Premier FC (2nd)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Fishhawk Premier FC (6th)	2–2	45%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Tampa Bay United (1st)	0–2	8%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting SA JAX

-27

0.44

WLLLL

+0.41

+0.08

8.3

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Florida Premier FC (2nd)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Fishhawk Premier FC (6th)	2–5
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Jacksonville FC (4th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Tampa Bay United (1st)	1–6
W	Sat Sep 26	at	St. Petersburg FC (7th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Seminole United (5th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Florida Kraze Krush (3rd)	0–8
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Fishhawk Premier FC (6th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Florida Premier FC (2nd)	0–7

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Sporting SA TLH · Sat Mar 6 vs Tampa Bay United · Sun Mar 7 vs St. Petersburg FC See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Sporting SA TLH (9th)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Tampa Bay United (1st)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	St. Petersburg FC (7th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Jacksonville FC (4th)	0–3	3%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Sporting SA TLH (9th)	1–2	30%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Florida Kraze Krush (3rd)	0–4	1%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Seminole United (5th)	1–3	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting SA TLH

-9

0.00

LLLL

+0.22

+0.13

7.5

L	Sun Oct 4	at	Fishhawk Premier FC (6th)	1–5
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Florida Premier FC (2nd)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	St. Petersburg FC (7th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Florida Kraze Krush (3rd)	1–3

Next: Sat Sep 12 at Seminole United · Sat Sep 19 vs Tampa Bay United · Sat Oct 24 at St. Petersburg FC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 12 (no score yet)	at	Seminole United (5th)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Sep 19 (no score yet)	vs	Tampa Bay United (1st)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	St. Petersburg FC (7th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Tampa Bay United (1st)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Sporting SA JAX (8th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Jacksonville FC (4th)	0–2	12%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Florida Kraze Krush (3rd)	0–3	6%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Seminole United (5th)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Sporting SA JAX (8th)	2–1	50%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Jacksonville FC (4th)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Fishhawk Premier FC (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Florida Premier FC (2nd)	0–3	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.92 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.