Tampa Bay United
ECNL Regional League Girls · Florida GU16 · 9 teams · Tampa Bay United (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:00 PM
Ed Radice Sports Complex, Field 6 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.7 for, 1.2 against · 1.69 expected points)
| Season so far | Tampa Bay United | Florida Kraze Krush |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-1-1 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per game | 2.29 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / game | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals against / game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W D W L W | L W D D W |
| Biggest win | 3–0 vs Seminole United | 2–0 vs Fishhawk Premier FC |
| Worst loss | 0–1 vs Jacksonville FC | 0–3 vs Florida Premier FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.57 | +0.16 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.24 | +0.28 |
Common opponents: Fishhawk Premier FC — we 4–2, 2–2; they 2–0. Sporting SA TLH — we 2–1; they 2–1. Florida Premier FC — we 5–4; they 0–3. Jacksonville FC — we 0–1; they 1–1. Sporting SA JAX — we 1–0; they 1–1.
Game plan
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Jacksonville FC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 48% / draw 24% / loss 27%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Florida Kraze Krush game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Tampa Bay United – Florida Kraze Krush) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 2.13 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Win 2.38 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.13 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
3rd▼ down 2 | 3rd▼ down 2 | 4th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we fall to at least 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 8%
- 2nd 20%
- 3rd 39%
- 4th 18%
- 5th 11%
- 6th 3%
- 7th <1%
- 8th
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
46 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Tampa Bay United to Florida Kraze Krush through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.01 · 3rd hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 03:00 PM |
Florida Kraze Krush 4th · 3-2-1 · GD +1 |
Home Ed Radice Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
1–1 | 1.69 | 2.21 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM |
Sporting SA TLH 7th · 1-0-4 · GD -3 |
Home Ed Radice Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–1 | 2.09 | 2.20 | Swing game |
| Tue Mar 2 08:15 PM |
Florida Premier FC 6th · 4-2-4 · GD +5 |
Away far trip
Starkey Ranch District Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
1–1 | 1.29 | 2.11 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 04:00 PM |
Sporting SA JAX 2nd · 6-2-1 · GD +14 |
Away far trip
Indian Trails Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–1 | 0.79 | 1.99 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 10:30 AM |
Jacksonville FC 3rd · 6-1-2 · GD +14 |
Away far trip
Patton Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.82 | 1.89 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 01:00 PM |
St. Petersburg FC 5th · 3-1-3 · GD +1 |
Home Ed Radice Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
1–1 | 1.84 | 1.89 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 11:00 AM |
Florida Kraze Krush 4th · 3-2-1 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Central Winds |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.45 | 1.86 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 01:00 PM |
Seminole United 9th · 0-1-6 · GD -28 |
Away far trip
Seminole |
●○○○○ Favorable | 92% |
4–0 | 2.81 | 1.92 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 01:00 PM |
St. Petersburg FC 5th · 3-1-3 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Sawgrass Lake Complex · grass |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.58 | 1.90 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay United | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 16 | 2.29 | WLWDW | -0.24 | +0.01 | 86% | 3.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sun Oct 25 vs Sporting SA TLH · Tue Mar 2 at Florida Premier FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Sporting SA JAX | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 5 | +14 | 20 | 2.22 | WLWWD | -0.12 | -0.20 | 100% | 1.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Sporting SA TLH · Sat Mar 6 vs Tampa Bay United · Sun Mar 7 vs St. Petersburg FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Jacksonville FC | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 6 | +14 | 19 | 2.11 | WWLLW | -0.12 | -0.20 | 99% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Feb 28 at Sporting SA TLH · Sat Mar 6 vs St. Petersburg FC · Sun Mar 7 vs Tampa Bay United See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Florida Kraze Krush | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 11 | 1.83 | WDDWL | +0.28 | -0.24 | 54% | 4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Seminole United · Sat Oct 24 at Tampa Bay United · Sun Oct 25 at St. Petersburg FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | St. Petersburg FC | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 10 | 1.43 | WLLDW | -0.37 | +0.25 | 12% | 5.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting SA TLH · Sun Oct 25 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sun Feb 21 at Fishhawk Premier FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Florida Premier FC | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 14 | 1.40 | WWLWD | +0.16 | -0.48 | 49% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Tue Mar 2 vs Tampa Bay United · Sat Mar 6 vs Fishhawk Premier FC · Sat Apr 3 vs Florida Kraze Krush See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Sporting SA TLH | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3 | 0.60 | LLLLW | +0.09 | -0.03 | 1% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Seminole United · Sat Oct 24 at St. Petersburg FC · Sun Oct 25 at Tampa Bay United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Fishhawk Premier FC | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 5 | 0.50 | WDLLL | +0.32 | -0.37 | 0% | 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Feb 21 vs St. Petersburg FC · Sat Mar 6 at Florida Premier FC · Sat Apr 3 vs Seminole United See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Seminole United | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 30 | -28 | 1 | 0.14 | LLLDL | +0.36 | +0.25 | 0% | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Sporting SA TLH · Sat Oct 17 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sun Mar 7 at Sporting SA TLH See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.56 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.