Florida Premier FC
ECNL Regional League Girls · Florida GU16 · 9 teams · Florida Premier FC (all teams)
Next game — Tue Mar 2, 08:15 PM
Starkey Ranch District Park, Field 7 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.7 against · 1.49 expected points)
| Season so far | Florida Premier FC | Tampa Bay United |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-2-4 | 5-1-1 |
| Points per game | 1.40 | 2.29 |
| Goals for / game | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| Goals against / game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | D W L W W | W D W L W |
| Biggest win | 4–0 at Seminole United | 3–0 vs Seminole United |
| Worst loss | 1–3 at Sporting SA JAX | 0–1 vs Jacksonville FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.47 | +0.57 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.16 | -0.24 |
Already played this season: Sun Sep 20 4–5 at Tampa Bay United (L)
Common opponents: Sporting SA JAX — we 1–3, 0–0; they 1–0. Jacksonville FC — we 1–2, 2–1; they 0–1. Fishhawk Premier FC — we 0–0; they 4–2, 2–2. Seminole United — we 4–0; they 3–0. Sporting SA TLH — we 3–0; they 2–1.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Tampa Bay United score 2.4/game — well above the league's 1.6.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 at Fishhawk Premier FC, 0–0 vs Sporting SA JAX.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 43% / draw 22% / loss 36%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
St. Petersburg FC sit 5th on 1.43 PPG; we are on 1.40.A point moves us above St. Petersburg FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Tuesday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Tampa Bay United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Florida Premier FC – Tampa Bay United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Mar 1 – Sun Mar 7); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.36 PPG |
6th— holds | 5th▲ up 1 | 6th— holds |
| Win 1.55 PPG |
5th▲ up 1 | 5th▲ up 1 | 6th— holds |
| Draw 1.36 PPG |
6th— holds | 5th▲ up 1 | 6th— holds |
| Loss 1.27 PPG |
6th— holds | 5th▲ up 1 | 7th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 14%
- 4th 35%
- 5th 35%
- 6th 13%
- 7th 1%
- 8th <1%
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay United | 2.29 (+0.89) | 3rd (1.90) | 23 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 2 | Sporting SA JAX | 2.22 (+0.82) | 1st (2.17) | 22 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Jacksonville FC | 2.11 (+0.71) | 2nd (2.11) | 20 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Florida Kraze Krush | 1.83 (+0.43) | 4th (1.64) | 16 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection |
| 5 | St. Petersburg FC | 1.43 (+0.03) | 6th (1.33) | A point next game |
How the results connect
55 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Florida Premier FC to Tampa Bay United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.48 · 9th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Mar 2 08:15 PM |
Tampa Bay United 1st · 5-1-1 · GD +7 |
Home Starkey Ranch District Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.49 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 12:00 PM |
Fishhawk Premier FC 8th · 1-2-7 · GD -11 |
Home Starkey Ranch District Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
2–1 | 2.25 | 1.48 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 03:00 PM |
Florida Kraze Krush 4th · 3-2-1 · GD +1 |
Home Wiregrass Ranch Sports Campus · grass |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.64 | 1.49 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 11:00 AM |
Seminole United 9th · 0-1-6 · GD -28 |
Home Wiregrass Ranch Sports Campus · grass |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
4–0 | 2.86 | 1.59 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 11:00 AM |
St. Petersburg FC 5th · 3-1-3 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Sawgrass Lake Complex · grass |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.53 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 11:00 AM |
Sporting SA TLH 7th · 1-0-4 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Florida State University Rec Sportsplex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
2–1 | 1.76 | 1.60 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Tampa Bay United | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 16 | 2.29 | WLWDW | -0.24 | +0.01 | 86% | 3.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sun Oct 25 vs Sporting SA TLH · Tue Mar 2 at Florida Premier FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Sporting SA JAX | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 5 | +14 | 20 | 2.22 | WLWWD | -0.12 | -0.20 | 100% | 1.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Sporting SA TLH · Sat Mar 6 vs Tampa Bay United · Sun Mar 7 vs St. Petersburg FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Jacksonville FC | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 6 | +14 | 19 | 2.11 | WWLLW | -0.12 | -0.20 | 99% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Feb 28 at Sporting SA TLH · Sat Mar 6 vs St. Petersburg FC · Sun Mar 7 vs Tampa Bay United See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Florida Kraze Krush | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 11 | 1.83 | WDDWL | +0.28 | -0.24 | 51% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Seminole United · Sat Oct 24 at Tampa Bay United · Sun Oct 25 at St. Petersburg FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | St. Petersburg FC | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 10 | 1.43 | WLLDW | -0.37 | +0.25 | 12% | 5.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting SA TLH · Sun Oct 25 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sun Feb 21 at Fishhawk Premier FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Florida Premier FC | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 14 | 1.40 | WWLWD | +0.16 | -0.48 | 51% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Tue Mar 2 vs Tampa Bay United · Sat Mar 6 vs Fishhawk Premier FC · Sat Apr 3 vs Florida Kraze Krush See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Sporting SA TLH | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3 | 0.60 | LLLLW | +0.09 | -0.03 | 1% | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Seminole United · Sat Oct 24 at St. Petersburg FC · Sun Oct 25 at Tampa Bay United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Fishhawk Premier FC | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 5 | 0.50 | WDLLL | +0.32 | -0.37 | 0% | 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Feb 21 vs St. Petersburg FC · Sat Mar 6 at Florida Premier FC · Sat Apr 3 vs Seminole United See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Seminole United | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 30 | -28 | 1 | 0.14 | LLLDL | +0.36 | +0.25 | 0% | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Sporting SA TLH · Sat Oct 17 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sun Mar 7 at Sporting SA TLH See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.56 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.