Team Boca
ECNL Regional League Girls · Florida GU14 · 8 teams · Team Boca (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
Mullins Park, Field 2 - Turf ↗ · turf far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.8 for, 1.4 against · 1.66 expected points)
| Season so far | Team Boca | Athletic Club Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-3 | 1-0-3 |
| Points per game | 1.20 | 0.75 |
| Goals for / game | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| Goals against / game | 2.6 | 2.3 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W L W L L | L W L L |
| Biggest win | 2–0 vs ACF Sunrise | 1–0 vs Cape Coral SA |
| Worst loss | 0–4 at SWFL PREMIER FC | 0–5 at AC Florida West |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.39 | -0.88 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.22 | +0.33 |
Common opponents: SWFL PREMIER FC — we 0–4; they 1–2. Cape Coral SA — we 3–2; they 1–0. AC Florida West — we 1–3; they 0–5. ACF Sunrise — we 2–0; they 0–2.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Athletic Club Florida average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 2 of 4.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 at SWFL PREMIER FC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 48% / draw 23% / loss 30%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Mullins Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
ACF Sunrise sit 4th on 1.33 PPG; we are on 1.20.A point moves us above ACF Sunrise on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Athletic Club Florida game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Team Boca – Athletic Club Florida) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.17 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds |
| Draw 1.17 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
7th▼ down 2 | 6th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 11%
- 4th 22%
- 5th 27%
- 6th 26%
- 7th 11%
- 8th 1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.36 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AC Florida West | 3.00 (+1.80) | 1st (2.59) | 36 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | SWFL PREMIER FC | 2.00 (+0.80) | 2nd (2.04) | 22 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 3 | SFFA | 1.60 (+0.40) | 3rd (1.59) | 17 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 4 | ACF Sunrise | 1.33 (+0.13) | 4th (1.33) | A point next game |
How the results connect
12 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Team Boca to Athletic Club Florida through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.04 · 5th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Sep 13 11:00 AM no score posted |
Athletic Club Florida 7th · 1-0-3 · GD -7 |
Home Fau Glades |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.92 | 1.32 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
Athletic Club Florida 7th · 1-0-3 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
Mullins Park · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
1–1 | 1.66 | 1.37 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 02:00 PM |
Athletic Club Florida Miami 6th · 1-1-2 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Southeast Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
2–2 | 1.17 | 1.34 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 10:00 AM |
SFFA 3rd · 2-2-1 · GD +1 |
Away Canyon District Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
1–1 | 0.95 | 1.30 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 03:00 PM |
Cape Coral SA 8th · 0-2-4 · GD -15 |
Home Fau Glades |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
3–1 | 2.14 | 1.38 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 11:00 AM |
SWFL PREMIER FC 2nd · 4-0-2 · GD +11 |
Home Fau Glades |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–2 | 0.68 | 1.32 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 11:00 AM |
AC Florida West 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +16 |
Home Fau Glades |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
1–3 | 0.42 | 1.25 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 01:00 PM |
ACF Sunrise 4th · 1-1-1 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Nob Hill Soccer Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–1 | 1.09 | 1.23 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 11:00 AM |
SFFA 3rd · 2-2-1 · GD +1 |
Home Fau Glades |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.20 | 1.23 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | AC Florida West | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 3 | +16 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.24 | -0.25 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Aug 23 vs ACF Sunrise · Sat Sep 19 vs Athletic Club Florida Miami · Sat Oct 24 at SWFL PREMIER FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | SWFL PREMIER FC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 12 | 2.00 | LWWWL | -0.15 | -0.15 | 100% | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AC Florida West · Sun Oct 25 vs ACF Sunrise · Sun Mar 7 at ACF Sunrise See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | SFFA | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 | 1.60 | WDWLD | +0.22 | -0.17 | 84% | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Athletic Club Florida Miami · Sun Oct 25 at Athletic Club Florida · Sat Oct 31 vs Team Boca See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | ACF Sunrise | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 4 | 1.33 | WLD | -0.35 | +0.10 | 52% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Athletic Club Florida · Sun Aug 23 at AC Florida West · Sat Sep 12 vs Cape Coral SA See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Team Boca | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 6 | 1.20 | LLWLW | +0.22 | -0.04 | 34% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 vs Athletic Club Florida · Sat Oct 24 at Athletic Club Florida · Sun Oct 25 at Athletic Club Florida Miami See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Athletic Club Florida Miami | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 4 | 1.00 | WLLD | -0.15 | +0.11 | 27% | 5.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 at AC Florida West · Sun Sep 20 at ACF Sunrise · Sat Oct 24 vs SFFA See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Athletic Club Florida | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 3 | 0.75 | LLWL | +0.33 | +0.03 | 3% | 6.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs ACF Sunrise · Sun Sep 13 at Team Boca · Sat Oct 24 vs Team Boca See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Cape Coral SA | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 23 | -15 | 2 | 0.33 | DLLLD | +0.22 | +0.17 | 0% | 7.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at ACF Sunrise · Sat Oct 24 vs ACF Sunrise · Sun Oct 25 vs AC Florida West See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.85 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.