ACF Sunrise
ECNL Regional League Girls · Florida GU14 · 8 teams · ACF Sunrise (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM
Pelican Soccer Complex, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.3 for, 1.4 against · 1.94 expected points)
| Season so far | ACF Sunrise | Cape Coral SA |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-1 | 0-2-4 |
| Points per game | 1.33 | 0.33 |
| Goals for / game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 3.8 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | D L W | D L L L D |
| Biggest win | 2–0 vs Athletic Club Florida | — |
| Worst loss | 0–2 at Team Boca | 0–7 at SWFL PREMIER FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.05 | -1.48 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.33 | +0.21 |
Common opponents: Athletic Club Florida — we 2–0; they 0–1. Team Boca — we 0–2; they 2–3. SFFA — we 1–1; they 1–1.
Game plan
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Cape Coral SA concede 3.8/game; worst result 0–7 at SWFL PREMIER FC.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at Team Boca.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 58% / draw 20% / loss 22%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Pelican Soccer Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Team Boca sit 4th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.33.A point moves us above Team Boca on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Cape Coral SA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ACF Sunrise – Cape Coral SA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.75 PPG |
2nd▲ up 3 | 2nd▲ up 3 | 3rd▲ up 2 |
| Win 1.75 PPG |
2nd▲ up 3 | 2nd▲ up 3 | 3rd▲ up 2 |
| Draw 1.25 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 4%
- 3rd 17%
- 4th 26%
- 5th 27%
- 6th 20%
- 7th 4%
- 8th 1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.64 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AC Florida West | 3.00 (+1.67) | 1st (2.69) | 38 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | SWFL PREMIER FC | 1.71 (+0.38) | 2nd (1.92) | A point next game |
| 3 | SFFA | 1.60 (+0.27) | 3rd (1.59) | A point next game |
| 4 | Team Boca | 1.50 (+0.17) | 4th (1.36) | A point next game |
How the results connect
13 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link ACF Sunrise to Cape Coral SA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.08 · 3rd hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Jan 1 TBD no score posted |
Athletic Club Florida 7th · 1-0-4 · GD -8 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
1–0 | 1.78 | 1.45 | Swing game |
| Sun Aug 23 TBD no score posted |
AC Florida West 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +17 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
0–2 | 0.45 | 1.25 | Upside |
| Sat Sep 12 03:00 PM no score posted |
Cape Coral SA 8th · 0-2-4 · GD -15 |
Home Nob Hill Soccer Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–1 | 2.19 | 1.40 | Swing game |
| Sun Sep 20 01:00 PM no score posted |
Athletic Club Florida Miami 6th · 1-1-2 · GD -2 |
Home Nob Hill Soccer Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
2–1 | 1.66 | 1.44 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM |
Cape Coral SA 8th · 0-2-4 · GD -15 |
Away far trip
Pelican Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
2–1 | 1.94 | 1.50 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 01:00 PM |
SWFL PREMIER FC 2nd · 4-0-3 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
Lakewood Ranch Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.74 | 1.42 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 03:30 PM |
Athletic Club Florida Miami 6th · 1-1-2 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Miami Dade College |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
1–1 | 1.37 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 01:00 PM |
SWFL PREMIER FC 2nd · 4-0-3 · GD +10 |
Home Nob Hill Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–1 | 0.95 | 1.37 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 01:00 PM |
SFFA 3rd · 2-2-1 · GD +1 |
Home Nob Hill Soccer Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–1 | 1.34 | 1.37 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 01:00 PM |
Team Boca 4th · 3-0-3 · GD -3 |
Home Nob Hill Soccer Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.62 | 1.39 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 01:00 PM |
AC Florida West 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +17 |
Home Nob Hill Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
0–2 | 0.61 | 1.33 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AC Florida West | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.02 | -0.41 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Aug 23 vs ACF Sunrise · Sat Sep 19 vs Athletic Club Florida Miami · Sun Oct 25 at Cape Coral SA See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | SWFL PREMIER FC | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 12 | 1.71 | WWWLL | +0.17 | -0.42 | 99% | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs ACF Sunrise · Sun Mar 7 at ACF Sunrise · Sat Apr 3 at SFFA See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | SFFA | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 | 1.60 | WDWLD | +0.19 | -0.16 | 84% | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Athletic Club Florida Miami · Sun Oct 25 at Athletic Club Florida · Sat Oct 31 vs Team Boca See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Team Boca | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 9 | 1.50 | LWLWW | -0.02 | +0.04 | 45% | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 vs Athletic Club Florida · Sun Oct 25 at Athletic Club Florida Miami · Sat Oct 31 at SFFA See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | ACF Sunrise | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 4 | 1.33 | WLD | -0.33 | +0.08 | 48% | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Athletic Club Florida · Sun Aug 23 at AC Florida West · Sat Sep 12 vs Cape Coral SA See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Athletic Club Florida Miami | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 4 | 1.00 | WLLD | -0.16 | +0.10 | 24% | 5.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 at AC Florida West · Sun Sep 20 at ACF Sunrise · Sat Oct 24 vs SFFA See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Athletic Club Florida | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 3 | 0.60 | LLWLL | +0.16 | +0.07 | 1% | 7.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs ACF Sunrise · Sun Sep 13 at Team Boca · Sun Oct 25 vs SFFA See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Cape Coral SA | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 23 | -15 | 2 | 0.33 | DLLLD | +0.21 | +0.16 | 0% | 7.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at ACF Sunrise · Sat Oct 24 vs ACF Sunrise · Sun Oct 25 vs AC Florida West See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.78 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.