Athletic Club Florida
ECNL Regional League Girls · Florida GU14 · 8 teams · Athletic Club Florida (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
Mullins Park, Field 2 - Turf ↗ · turf
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.4 for, 1.8 against · 1.12 expected points)
| Season so far | Athletic Club Florida | Team Boca |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-3 | 2-0-3 |
| Points per game | 0.75 | 1.20 |
| Goals for / game | 0.5 | 1.8 |
| Goals against / game | 2.3 | 2.6 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L L | W L W L L |
| Biggest win | 1–0 vs Cape Coral SA | 2–0 vs ACF Sunrise |
| Worst loss | 0–5 at AC Florida West | 0–4 at SWFL PREMIER FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.88 | -0.39 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.33 | +0.22 |
Common opponents: ACF Sunrise — we 0–2; they 2–0. AC Florida West — we 0–5; they 1–3. Cape Coral SA — we 1–0; they 3–2. SWFL PREMIER FC — we 1–2; they 0–4.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 at ACF Sunrise, 0–5 at AC Florida West.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 30%; a draw (23%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
Athletic Club Florida Miami sit 6th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.75.A point moves us above Athletic Club Florida Miami on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Team Boca game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Athletic Club Florida – Team Boca) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 0.80 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 8th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.20 PPG |
5th▲ up 2 | 5th▲ up 2 | 7th— holds |
| Draw 0.80 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 8th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.60 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 8th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd 1%
- 4th 3%
- 5th 8%
- 6th 17%
- 7th 49%
- 8th 22%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.36 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AC Florida West | 3.00 (+2.25) | 1st (2.59) | 39 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | SWFL PREMIER FC | 2.00 (+1.25) | 2nd (2.04) | 25 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 3 | SFFA | 1.60 (+0.85) | 3rd (1.59) | 20 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 4 | ACF Sunrise | 1.33 (+0.58) | 4th (1.33) | 16 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 5 | Team Boca | 1.20 (+0.45) | 5th (1.23) | Win next game |
| 6 | Athletic Club Florida Miami | 1.00 (+0.25) | 6th (1.17) | A point next game |
How the results connect
12 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Athletic Club Florida to Team Boca through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.03 · 4th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Jan 1 TBD no score posted |
ACF Sunrise 4th · 1-1-1 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
0–1 | 1.00 | 0.80 | Upside |
| Sun Sep 13 11:00 AM no score posted |
Team Boca 5th · 2-0-3 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
Fau Glades |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.88 | 0.81 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
Team Boca 5th · 2-0-3 · GD -4 |
Home Mullins Park · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–1 | 1.12 | 0.86 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM |
SFFA 3rd · 2-2-1 · GD +1 |
Home Mullins Park · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
0–1 | 0.89 | 0.86 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 03:30 PM |
Athletic Club Florida Miami 6th · 1-1-2 · GD -2 |
Home Miami Dade College Kendall Campus |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–2 | 1.05 | 0.88 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 01:00 PM |
SFFA 3rd · 2-2-1 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Canyon District Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
0–1 | 0.70 | 0.86 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 11:00 AM |
AC Florida West 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +16 |
Home Nob Hill Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
0–3 | 0.30 | 0.81 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 01:00 PM |
SWFL PREMIER FC 2nd · 4-0-2 · GD +11 |
Away far trip
Lakewood Ranch Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
0–2 | 0.34 | 0.77 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 03:00 PM |
Cape Coral SA 8th · 0-2-4 · GD -15 |
Away far trip
Cape Coral Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.34 | 0.82 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 02:30 PM |
Athletic Club Florida Miami 6th · 1-1-2 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Miami Dade College |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.79 | 0.81 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | AC Florida West | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 3 | +16 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.24 | -0.25 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Aug 23 vs ACF Sunrise · Sat Sep 19 vs Athletic Club Florida Miami · Sat Oct 24 at SWFL PREMIER FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | SWFL PREMIER FC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 12 | 2.00 | LWWWL | -0.15 | -0.15 | 100% | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AC Florida West · Sun Oct 25 vs ACF Sunrise · Sun Mar 7 at ACF Sunrise See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | SFFA | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 | 1.60 | WDWLD | +0.22 | -0.17 | 84% | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Athletic Club Florida Miami · Sun Oct 25 at Athletic Club Florida · Sat Oct 31 vs Team Boca See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | ACF Sunrise | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 4 | 1.33 | WLD | -0.35 | +0.10 | 53% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Athletic Club Florida · Sun Aug 23 at AC Florida West · Sat Sep 12 vs Cape Coral SA See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Team Boca | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 6 | 1.20 | LLWLW | +0.22 | -0.04 | 34% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 vs Athletic Club Florida · Sat Oct 24 at Athletic Club Florida · Sun Oct 25 at Athletic Club Florida Miami See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Athletic Club Florida Miami | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 4 | 1.00 | WLLD | -0.15 | +0.11 | 26% | 5.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 at AC Florida West · Sun Sep 20 at ACF Sunrise · Sat Oct 24 vs SFFA See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Athletic Club Florida | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 3 | 0.75 | LLWL | +0.33 | +0.03 | 4% | 6.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs ACF Sunrise · Sun Sep 13 at Team Boca · Sat Oct 24 vs Team Boca See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Cape Coral SA | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 23 | -15 | 2 | 0.33 | DLLLD | +0.22 | +0.17 | 0% | 7.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at ACF Sunrise · Sat Oct 24 vs ACF Sunrise · Sun Oct 25 vs AC Florida West See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.85 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.