Capital FC
ECNL Regional League Girls · Far West GU17 · 7 teams · Capital FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Jan 23, 07:00 PM
CFC Pioneer Sportspark, Ed Davison 1 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.4 against · 1.58 expected points)
| Season so far | Capital FC | FC Portland |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
FC Portland average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 18% / loss 35%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Portland game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Capital FC – FC Portland) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Jan 18 – Sun Jan 24); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 5th▼ down 4 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 5th▼ down 4 | 5th▼ down 4 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
7th▼ down 6 | 7th▼ down 6 | 7th▼ down 6 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 1st even if every rival loses, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 14%
- 2nd 15%
- 3rd 14%
- 4th 14%
- 5th 14%
- 6th 15%
- 7th 13%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 1st hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Jan 23 07:00 PM |
FC Portland 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home CFC Pioneer Sportspark |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 30 04:00 PM |
Eugene Metro FC 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Bob Keefer |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 6 11:00 AM |
Portland City United 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Portland Christian High School · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.35 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 13 TBD |
Oregon Premier FC 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 20 02:00 PM |
Eastside Timbers 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Eastside Timbers Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.38 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 TBD |
Portland City United 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
United PDX 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.43 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 11:00 AM |
FC Portland 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Liberty High School |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Eugene Metro FC 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.43 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
United PDX 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 01:00 PM |
Oregon Premier FC 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
TBA |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.39 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Eastside Timbers 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Capital FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 vs FC Portland · Sat Jan 30 at Eugene Metro FC · Sat Feb 6 at Portland City United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Eastside Timbers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 at Oregon Premier FC · Sat Jan 30 vs United PDX · Sat Feb 6 at FC Portland See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Eugene Metro FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 30 vs Capital FC · Sat Feb 6 at United PDX · Sat Feb 13 vs Portland City United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Portland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 at Capital FC · Sat Jan 30 vs Oregon Premier FC · Sat Feb 6 vs Eastside Timbers See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Oregon Premier FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 vs Eastside Timbers · Sat Jan 30 at FC Portland · Sun Jan 31 at United PDX See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Portland City United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 at United PDX · Sat Feb 6 vs Capital FC · Sat Feb 13 at Eugene Metro FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | United PDX | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 vs Portland City United · Sat Jan 30 at Eastside Timbers · Sun Jan 31 vs Oregon Premier FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.