NCFC Youth Premier

ECNL Regional League Girls · Carolinas GU18/19 · 9 teams · NCFC Youth (all teams)

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3rd

5-0-2 record · 7 played

2.14 points per game

+6 goal diff · 19–13

WLWWWlast 5

99% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.1

-0.25 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM

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NCFC Youth Premier
3rd · 2.14 PPG

South Carolina Surf
9th · 0.00 PPG

WRAL , Field 4 ↗

90%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.7 for, 1.2 against · 2.76 expected points)

Season so far	NCFC Youth Premier	South Carolina Surf
Position	3rd	9th
Record (W-D-L)	5-0-2	0-0-3
Points per game	2.14	0.00
Goals for / game	2.7	0.3
Goals against / game	1.9	5.0
Clean sheets	2	0
Held scoreless	0	2
Form (recent first)	W W W L W	L L L
Biggest win	6–2 vs Catawba Valley YSA	—
Worst loss	1–4 at Charlotte SA White	0–7 vs NCFC Youth Elite
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.59	-2.04
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.25	+1.36

Common opponents: Charlotte SA Blue — we 2–0; they 0–3.

Game plan

They struggle to score
South Carolina Surf average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 2 of 3.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
South Carolina Surf concede 5.0/game; worst result 0–7 vs NCFC Youth Elite.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 90% chance; likely score 4–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Confidence is low on their side
South Carolina Surf have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the South Carolina Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (NCFC Youth Premier – South Carolina Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.25 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Win 2.25 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Draw 2.00 PPG	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1	4th▼ down 1
Loss 1.88 PPG	4th▼ down 1	4th▼ down 1	4th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st

99% top 4

1% below the top 4

3.1 average finish

1st 1%
2nd 5%
3rd 74%
4th 19%
5th 1%
6th
7th
8th
9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.45 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	NCFC Youth Elite	2.63 (+0.49)	2nd (2.51)	14 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Charlotte SA White	2.50 (+0.36)	1st (2.51)	13 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

18 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link NCFC Youth Premier to South Carolina Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

16 favour us

2 even

0 favour them

+3.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.05 · 2nd hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 02:00 PM	South Carolina Surf 9th · 0-0-3 · GD -14	Home WRAL	●○○○○ Favorable	90%	4–1	2.76	2.22	Bank it
Sun Nov 1 03:00 PM	Charlotte SA White 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +18	Home Wake Competition Center	●●●●● Very tough	16%	1–2	0.63	2.04	Upside
Sat Dec 12 03:00 PM	Wilmington Hammerheads 8th · 0-1-4 · GD -14	Away far trip NCINO Sports Park	●○○○○ Favorable	79%	3–1	2.48	2.09	Bank it
Tue Dec 15 05:30 PM	NCFC Youth Elite 1st · 7-0-1 · GD +23	Home Wake Competition Center	●●●●● Very tough	14%	1–2	0.58	1.95	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

NCFC Youth Elite

+23

2.63

WWWWW

-0.75

-0.07

100%

1.5

W	Sun Oct 11	at	Catawba Valley YSA (7th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Highland FC (6th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (8th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	South Carolina Surf (9th)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	South Carolina Surf (9th)	7–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	NC Fusion (5th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	0–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	NC Fusion (5th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Wilmington Hammerheads · Sat Oct 31 vs Charlotte SA Blue · Sat Dec 12 at Charlotte SA Blue See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (8th)	3–0	92%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (4th)	1–0	62%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Charlotte SA Blue (4th)	1–0	55%
·	Tue Dec 15	at	NCFC Youth Premier (3rd)	2–1	69%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Charlotte SA White

+18

2.50

WWLWW

-0.21

-0.56

100%

1.6

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (8th)	8–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	NC Fusion (5th)	2–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Highland FC (6th)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Catawba Valley YSA (7th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	1–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (3rd)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Highland FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Catawba Valley YSA · Sun Nov 1 at NCFC Youth Premier See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Highland FC (6th)	2–0	80%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (7th)	5–0	96%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	NCFC Youth Premier (3rd)	2–1	68%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (4th)	1–0	62%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	South Carolina Surf (9th)	4–0	95%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NCFC Youth Premier

2.14

WLWWW

-0.25

+0.05

99%

3.1

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Catawba Valley YSA (7th)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Highland FC (6th)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (7th)	6–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	NC Fusion (5th)	2–4
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (4th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Highland FC (6th)	3–1
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Carolina Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs Charlotte SA White · Sat Dec 12 at Wilmington Hammerheads See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	South Carolina Surf (9th)	4–1	90%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (8th)	3–1	79%
·	Tue Dec 15	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	1–2	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Charlotte SA Blue

2.00

WWLWD

-0.88

+0.26

68%

4.2

D	Sun Oct 18	at	NC Fusion (5th)	0–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	South Carolina Surf (9th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	NCFC Youth Premier (3rd)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (8th)	1–0
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Catawba Valley YSA (7th)	2–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Highland FC · Sat Oct 31 at NCFC Youth Elite · Sat Nov 7 vs South Carolina Surf See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Highland FC (6th)	1–0	49%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	0–1	12%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	South Carolina Surf (9th)	2–0	79%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (8th)	1–0	66%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	0–1	13%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	0–1	16%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	NC Fusion (5th)	1–0	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NC Fusion

-2

1.25

WLWLD

+0.36

-1.33

31%

4.8

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (4th)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (7th)	3–5
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Highland FC (6th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (3rd)	4–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (8th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	0–2
L	Sat Aug 29	at	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	0–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs South Carolina Surf · Sun Nov 8 vs Wilmington Hammerheads · Sun Dec 6 at South Carolina Surf See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	South Carolina Surf (9th)	3–1	77%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (8th)	2–0	71%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	South Carolina Surf (9th)	2–1	68%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Charlotte SA Blue (4th)	0–1	23%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Highland FC

-3

1.00

WWLLL

+0.32

-0.31

6.0

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (3rd)	0–2
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	NC Fusion (5th)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Catawba Valley YSA (7th)	5–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	NCFC Youth Premier (3rd)	1–3
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (8th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Charlotte SA White · Sun Oct 25 at Charlotte SA Blue · Sat Oct 31 vs South Carolina Surf See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	0–2	6%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Charlotte SA Blue (4th)	0–1	21%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	South Carolina Surf (9th)	2–1	71%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (7th)	2–1	62%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Catawba Valley YSA

-18

0.43

LLLWL

+0.73

-0.48

7.6

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (3rd)	2–3
W	Sat Oct 17	at	NC Fusion (5th)	5–3
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	0–5
L	Sun Oct 4	at	NCFC Youth Premier (3rd)	2–6
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Highland FC (6th)	2–5
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (4th)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Charlotte SA White · Sat Dec 5 at South Carolina Surf · Sat Dec 12 at Highland FC See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	South Carolina Surf (9th)	3–2	52%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Highland FC (6th)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Dec 19	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (8th)	2–1	59%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Wilmington Hammerheads

-14

0.20

DLLLL

+0.83

-0.40

8.1

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	0–8
L	Sat Oct 3	at	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	NC Fusion (5th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Charlotte SA Blue (4th)	0–1
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Highland FC (6th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs NCFC Youth Elite · Sun Nov 8 at NC Fusion · Sat Dec 5 vs Charlotte SA Blue See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	0–3	2%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	NC Fusion (5th)	0–2	12%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (4th)	0–1	12%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (3rd)	1–3	9%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	South Carolina Surf (9th)	2–1	46%
·	Sat Dec 19	at	Catawba Valley YSA (7th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	South Carolina Surf (9th)	1–2	37%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

South Carolina Surf

-14

0.00

LLL

+1.36

-0.24

8.2

L	Sun Oct 4	at	Charlotte SA Blue (4th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	0–7

Next: Sat Oct 24 at NCFC Youth Premier · Sun Oct 25 at NC Fusion · Sat Oct 31 at Highland FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	NCFC Youth Premier (3rd)	1–4	4%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	NC Fusion (5th)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Highland FC (6th)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Charlotte SA Blue (4th)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (7th)	2–3	31%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	NC Fusion (5th)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	0–4	1%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (8th)	1–2	33%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (8th)	2–1	42%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.84 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.