NCFC Youth Premier

ECNL Regional League Girls · Carolinas GU14 · 9 teams · NCFC Youth (all teams)

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6th

1-3-3 record · 7 played

0.86 points per game

+1 goal diff · 7–6

WDDLDlast 5

18% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.6

-0.38 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM

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NCFC Youth Premier
6th · 0.86 PPG

South Carolina Surf
8th · 0.33 PPG

WRAL , Field 4 ↗

70% 19% 11%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.1 for, 0.7 against · 2.28 expected points)

Season so far	NCFC Youth Premier	South Carolina Surf
Position	6th	8th
Record (W-D-L)	1-3-3	0-1-2
Points per game	0.86	0.33
Goals for / game	1.0	0.3
Goals against / game	0.9	5.0
Clean sheets	2	0
Held scoreless	4	2
Form (recent first)	D L D D W	D L L
Biggest win	4–0 vs Charlotte SA Blue	—
Worst loss	0–1 at Charlotte SA White	0–9 vs NCFC Youth Elite
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.02	-1.67
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.38	+2.27

Common opponents: Charlotte SA Blue — we 4–0; they 1–1.

Game plan

They struggle to score
South Carolina Surf average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 1.7); blanked in 2 of 3.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
South Carolina Surf concede 5.0/game; worst result 0–9 vs NCFC Youth Elite.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–1 at Charlotte SA White, 0–1 vs Highland FC, 0–1 at Highland FC, 0–0 at Catawba Valley YSA.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 70% / draw 19% / loss 11%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
What a win does
Wilmington Hammerheads sit 5th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.86.
A point moves us above Wilmington Hammerheads on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the South Carolina Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (NCFC Youth Premier – South Carolina Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.13 PPG	5th▲ up 1	5th▲ up 1	6th— holds
Win 1.13 PPG	5th▲ up 1	5th▲ up 1	6th— holds
Draw 0.88 PPG	6th— holds	5th▲ up 1	7th▼ down 1
Loss 0.75 PPG	8th▼ down 2	8th▼ down 2	8th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

18% top 4

82% below the top 4

5.6 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd 4%
4th 14%
5th 28%
6th 34%
7th 17%
8th 4%
9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.21 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	NCFC Youth Elite	3.00 (+2.14)	1st (2.81)	51 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Charlotte SA White	2.50 (+1.64)	2nd (2.29)	42 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Highland FC	1.86 (+1.00)	3rd (1.65)	30 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
4	Charlotte SA Blue	1.60 (+0.74)	4th (1.42)	25 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
5	Wilmington Hammerheads	1.00 (+0.14)	5th (1.28)	A point next game

How the results connect

14 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link NCFC Youth Premier to South Carolina Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us

1 even

6 favour them

+0.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.21 · 3rd hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM	South Carolina Surf 8th · 0-1-2 · GD -14	Home WRAL	●●○○○ Lean win	70%	2–0	2.28	1.04	Swing game
Sun Nov 1 03:00 PM	Charlotte SA White 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +11	Home Wake Competition Center	●●●●● Very tough	21%	0–1	0.88	1.02	Upside
Sat Dec 12 01:00 PM	Wilmington Hammerheads 5th · 1-2-2 · GD -3	Away far trip NCINO Sports Park	●●●●○ Tough	36%	0–0	1.40	1.06	Upside
Tue Dec 15 05:30 PM	NCFC Youth Elite 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +39	Home Wake Competition Center	●●●●● Very tough	7%	0–3	0.34	0.99	Upside
Sat Feb 20 04:00 PM	Highland FC 3rd · 4-1-2 · GD +1	Home WRAL	●●●●○ Tough	31%	0–0	1.32	1.02	Upside
Sun Feb 28 TBD	NCFC Youth Elite 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +39	Home	●●●●● Very tough	7%	0–3	0.34	0.97	Upside
Sat Mar 20 TBD	Catawba Valley YSA 7th · 1-2-3 · GD -6	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	46%	1–1	1.62	1.01	Swing game
Sun Apr 11 01:00 PM	Charlotte SA Blue 4th · 2-2-1 · GD +2	Away far trip Orthocarolina Complex	●●●●○ Tough	33%	1–1	1.27	1.03	Upside
Sat Apr 17 02:00 PM	South Carolina Surf 8th · 0-1-2 · GD -14	Home WRAL	●●○○○ Lean win	70%	2–0	2.28	1.11	Swing game
Sat Apr 24 TBD	Charlotte SA White 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +11	Away	●●●●● Very tough	15%	0–1	0.70	1.08	Upside
Sun Apr 25 01:00 PM	Wilmington Hammerheads 5th · 1-2-2 · GD -3	Home WRAL	●●●○○ Toss-up	43%	1–0	1.59	1.11	Swing game
Sun May 2 TBD	NC Fusion 9th · 0-1-7 · GD -31	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	74%	2–0	2.39	1.18	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

NCFC Youth Elite

+39

3.00

WWWWW

-0.98

-0.36

100%

1.0

W	Sat Oct 10	at	Highland FC (3rd)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 27	at	South Carolina Surf (8th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	South Carolina Surf (8th)	9–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	NC Fusion (9th)	10–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	5–2
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	NC Fusion (9th)	10–1

Next: Sun Oct 11 at Catawba Valley YSA · Sat Oct 24 at Wilmington Hammerheads · Sat Oct 31 vs Charlotte SA Blue See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 11 (no score yet)	at	Catawba Valley YSA (7th)	5–1	95%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	3–0	87%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (4th)	4–1	92%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Charlotte SA Blue (4th)	4–1	87%
·	Tue Dec 15	at	NCFC Youth Premier (6th)	3–0	81%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	NC Fusion (9th)	8–0	100%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (7th)	6–0	98%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Highland FC (3rd)	2–0	80%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	NCFC Youth Premier (6th)	3–0	81%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (4th)	4–1	92%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	3–0	87%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	South Carolina Surf (8th)	8–0	99%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	2–1	63%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Charlotte SA White

+11

2.50

LWWWW

-0.02

-0.28

100%

2.0

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	NC Fusion (9th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Highland FC (3rd)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Catawba Valley YSA (7th)	7–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	2–5
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (6th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Highland FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Catawba Valley YSA · Sun Nov 1 at NCFC Youth Premier See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Highland FC (3rd)	1–0	54%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (7th)	3–0	82%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	NCFC Youth Premier (6th)	1–0	54%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (4th)	2–1	69%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	South Carolina Surf (8th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	South Carolina Surf (8th)	4–0	92%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Highland FC (3rd)	1–0	54%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	1–0	62%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Catawba Valley YSA (7th)	2–1	75%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (6th)	1–0	61%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	1–2	21%
·	Sat May 1	at	NC Fusion (9th)	4–0	94%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (4th)	2–1	69%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Highland FC

1.86

WLLWW

+0.21

-0.13

91%

3.4

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (6th)	1–0
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	NC Fusion (9th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Catawba Valley YSA (7th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	NCFC Youth Premier (6th)	1–0
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Charlotte SA White · Sun Oct 25 at Charlotte SA Blue · Sat Oct 31 vs South Carolina Surf See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	0–1	18%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Charlotte SA Blue (4th)	0–0	34%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	South Carolina Surf (8th)	1–0	68%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (7th)	1–0	53%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	NCFC Youth Premier (6th)	0–0	30%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (4th)	1–0	41%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	0–0	42%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	0–1	18%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	South Carolina Surf (8th)	1–0	61%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	NC Fusion (9th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (7th)	1–0	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Charlotte SA Blue

1.60

WDLDW

-1.06

+0.25

57%

4.4

W	Sun Oct 18	at	NC Fusion (9th)	3–0
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	South Carolina Surf (8th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	NCFC Youth Premier (6th)	0–4
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	1–1
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Catawba Valley YSA (7th)	4–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Highland FC · Sat Oct 31 at NCFC Youth Elite · Sat Dec 5 at Wilmington Hammerheads See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Highland FC (3rd)	0–0	34%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	1–4	3%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	1–4	5%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	NC Fusion (9th)	3–0	87%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (7th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Highland FC (3rd)	0–1	28%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	South Carolina Surf (8th)	2–1	68%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	South Carolina Surf (8th)	2–1	68%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	1–4	3%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (6th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	NC Fusion (9th)	3–0	87%
·	Sun May 2	at	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	1–2	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Wilmington Hammerheads

-3

1.00

DDWLL

+0.53

-0.20

31%

5.2

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	NC Fusion (9th)	1–0
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Charlotte SA Blue (4th)	1–1
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Highland FC (3rd)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs NCFC Youth Elite · Sat Oct 31 at NC Fusion · Sat Dec 5 vs Charlotte SA Blue See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	NC Fusion (9th)	2–0	70%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (4th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (6th)	0–0	32%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	South Carolina Surf (8th)	2–0	65%
·	Sat Dec 19	at	Catawba Valley YSA (7th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	South Carolina Surf (8th)	1–0	57%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	South Carolina Surf (8th)	2–0	65%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Highland FC (3rd)	0–0	22%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Catawba Valley YSA (7th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	NC Fusion (9th)	2–0	70%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	0–1	16%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Charlotte SA Blue (4th)	1–1	27%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	NCFC Youth Premier (6th)	0–1	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NCFC Youth Premier

0.86

WDDLD

-0.38

+0.21

18%

5.6

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Catawba Valley YSA (7th)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Highland FC (3rd)	0–1
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (7th)	1–1
D	Sun Sep 27	at	NC Fusion (9th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (4th)	4–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Highland FC (3rd)	0–1
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Carolina Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs Charlotte SA White · Sat Dec 12 at Wilmington Hammerheads See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	South Carolina Surf (8th)	2–0	70%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	0–1	21%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	0–0	36%
·	Tue Dec 15	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Highland FC (3rd)	0–0	31%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Catawba Valley YSA (7th)	1–1	46%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Charlotte SA Blue (4th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	South Carolina Surf (8th)	2–0	70%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	0–1	15%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	1–0	43%
·	Sun May 2	at	NC Fusion (9th)	2–0	74%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Catawba Valley YSA

-6

0.83

LLDWD

-0.23

+0.26

6.7

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (6th)	0–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	NC Fusion (9th)	5–0
D	Sun Oct 4	at	NCFC Youth Premier (6th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Highland FC (3rd)	1–2
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (4th)	1–4

Next: Sun Oct 11 vs NCFC Youth Elite · Sat Oct 31 at Charlotte SA White · Sat Dec 5 at South Carolina Surf See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 11 (no score yet)	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	1–5	2%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	South Carolina Surf (8th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Highland FC (3rd)	0–1	20%
·	Sat Dec 19	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Charlotte SA Blue (4th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	0–6	1%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	NC Fusion (9th)	3–0	79%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (6th)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	South Carolina Surf (8th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	1–2	11%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Highland FC (3rd)	0–1	20%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

South Carolina Surf

-14

0.33

LLD

+2.27

-0.19

7.7

D	Sun Oct 4	at	Charlotte SA Blue (4th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	0–9

Next: Sat Oct 24 at NCFC Youth Premier · Sun Oct 25 at NC Fusion · Sat Oct 31 at Highland FC See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	NCFC Youth Premier (6th)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	NC Fusion (9th)	1–1	50%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Highland FC (3rd)	0–1	10%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (7th)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	NC Fusion (9th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	0–2	15%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	0–1	20%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	0–2	15%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (4th)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (4th)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (7th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Highland FC (3rd)	0–1	14%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	NC Fusion (9th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	NCFC Youth Premier (6th)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	0–8	0%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NC Fusion

-31

0.13

DLLLL

+0.80

-0.12

8.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (4th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (7th)	0–5
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Highland FC (3rd)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	0–2
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (6th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	0–10
L	Sat Aug 29	at	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	1–10

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs South Carolina Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Wilmington Hammerheads · Sun Dec 6 at South Carolina Surf See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	South Carolina Surf (8th)	1–1	27%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	South Carolina Surf (8th)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Charlotte SA Blue (4th)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	0–8	0%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Catawba Valley YSA (7th)	0–3	8%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	South Carolina Surf (8th)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Highland FC (3rd)	0–2	6%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Charlotte SA Blue (4th)	0–3	5%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	0–4	2%
·	Sun May 2	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (6th)	0–2	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.66 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.