TableChase Clubs

Villarreal Virginia Academy

ECNL Regional League Boys · Virginia BU18/19 · 9 teams · Villarreal Virginia Academy (all teams)

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8th
0-2-4 record · 6 played
0.33 points per game
-12 goal diff · 5–17
LDLLDlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.9
-0.04 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:00 PM

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Villarreal Virginia Academy
8th · 0.33 PPG
at
Richmond United Orange
7th · 0.67 PPG

Striker Park, Field 1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.1 for, 2.2 against · 0.76 expected points)

Season so farVillarreal Virginia AcademyRichmond United Orange
Position8th7th
Record (W-D-L)0-2-41-1-4
Points per game0.330.67
Goals for / game0.81.3
Goals against / game2.82.0
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless32
Form (recent first)D L L D LD L L L W
Biggest win—5–0 at LMVSC
Worst loss1–5 vs Richmond United Red0–4 at Vienna Youth Soccer
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.26-0.32
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.04+0.34

Common opponents: Richmond United Red — we 1–5; they 0–2. SOCA Elite — we 0–1; they 1–1. VSA — we 0–4; they 1–3. Vienna Youth Soccer — we 1–4; they 0–4. LMVSC — we 0–0; they 5–0.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–1 at SOCA Elite, 0–4 vs VSA, 0–0 at LMVSC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 19%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:00 PM at Striker Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Richmond United Orange sit 7th on 0.67 PPG; we are on 0.33.

    A point moves us above Richmond United Orange on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Richmond United Orange game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Villarreal Virginia Academy – Richmond United Orange) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.29 PPG		 8th— holds 8th— holds 8th— holds
Win
0.71 PPG		 7th▲ up 1 7th▲ up 1 8th— holds
Draw
0.43 PPG		 8th— holds 8th— holds 8th— holds
Loss
0.29 PPG		 8th— holds 8th— holds 8th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
7.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 9%
  8. 8th 88%
  9. 9th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 1.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 VSA 2.71 (+2.38) 1st (2.68) 20 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Prince William Courage /09 2.67 (+2.34) 2nd (2.50) 20 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Vienna Youth Soccer 2.50 (+2.17) 3rd (2.41) 18 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Richmond United Red 1.50 (+1.17) 4th (1.59) 10 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 SOCA Elite 1.40 (+1.07) 5th (1.23) 10 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Virginia United 0.80 (+0.47) 7th (0.93) 5 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection
7 Richmond United Orange 0.67 (+0.34) 6th (0.96) A point next game

How the results connect

27 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Villarreal Virginia Academy to Richmond United Orange through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
2 even
20 favour them
-2.1 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–4 4–0 0–1 1–1 0–4 3–1 1–5 2–0 0–0 0–5 3–3 1–5 2–3 2–1 0–3 2–0 2–1 3–0 0–3 Villarreal Virginia… 8th Vienna Youth Soccer 3rd SOCA Elite 5th VSA 1st Richmond United Red 4th LMVSC 9th Virginia United 6th Prince William Cour… 2nd Richmond United Ora… 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 5th 9th Aug 29 Sep 13 Sep 27 Oct 18 Oct 24

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.59 · 2nd hardest of 9

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
01:00 PM		 Richmond United Orange
7th · 1-1-4 · GD -4		 Away far trip
Striker Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
19%		 1–2 0.76 0.39 Upside
Sun Nov 1
12:00 PM		 Prince William Courage /09
2nd · 5-1-0 · GD +15		 Home
Bryant High School		 ●●●●● Very tough
6%		 0–3 0.28 0.38 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 VSA 7610 193+16 192.71 DWWWW -0.08 -0.51 100% 1.5
2 Prince William Courage /09 6510 216+15 162.67 DWWWW -0.32 +0.24 100% 2.1
3 Vienna Youth Soccer 6501 225+17 152.50 WWWWL -0.15 -0.38 100% 2.5
4 Richmond United Red 6303 1311+2 91.50 LWLWL +0.19 -0.58 76% 4.3
5 SOCA Elite 5212 812-4 71.40 WLWDL -0.07 +0.37 18% 5.4
6 Virginia United 5113 915-6 40.80 LDLWL +0.23 -0.20 5% 6.2
7 Richmond United Orange 6114 812-4 40.67 WLLLD +0.34 -0.95 1% 6.1
8 Villarreal Virginia Academy 6024 517-12 20.33 LDLLD -0.04 +0.59 0% 7.9
9 LMVSC 7016 226-24 10.14 LLLLD -0.02 +1.74 0% 9.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.95 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.