Richmond United Orange
ECNL Regional League Boys · Virginia BU18/19 · 9 teams · Richmond United (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.2 for, 1.8 against · 1.67 expected points)
| Season so far | Richmond United Orange | Virginia United |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-4 | 1-1-3 |
| Points per game | 0.67 | 0.80 |
| Goals for / game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Goals against / game | 2.0 | 3.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | D L L L W | L W L D L |
| Biggest win | 5–0 at LMVSC | 3–1 vs LMVSC |
| Worst loss | 0–4 at Vienna Youth Soccer | 1–5 vs Vienna Youth Soccer |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.32 | -0.65 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.34 | +0.23 |
Common opponents: Vienna Youth Soccer — we 0–4; they 1–5. LMVSC — we 5–0; they 3–1. Prince William Courage /09 — we 1–2; they 2–3. VSA — we 1–3; they 0–3.
Game plan
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They leak goals — be greedy
Virginia United concede 3.0/game; worst result 1–5 vs Vienna Youth Soccer.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–4 at Vienna Youth Soccer, 0–2 at Richmond United Red.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 49% / draw 20% / loss 31%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
Virginia United sit 6th on 0.80 PPG; we are on 0.67.A point moves us above Virginia United on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Virginia United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Richmond United Orange – Virginia United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.00 PPG |
6th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 1 |
| Win 1.00 PPG |
6th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.71 PPG |
7th— holds | 6th▲ up 1 | 7th— holds |
| Loss 0.57 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th 1%
- 5th 25%
- 6th 40%
- 7th 28%
- 8th 5%
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 1.25 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VSA | 2.71 (+2.04) | 1st (2.68) | 18 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Prince William Courage /09 | 2.67 (+2.00) | 2nd (2.50) | 18 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Vienna Youth Soccer | 2.50 (+1.83) | 3rd (2.41) | 16 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Richmond United Red | 1.50 (+0.83) | 4th (1.59) | 8 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | SOCA Elite | 1.40 (+0.73) | 5th (1.23) | 8 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection |
| 6 | Virginia United | 0.80 (+0.13) | 7th (0.93) | A point next game |
How the results connect
24 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Richmond United Orange to Virginia United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.95 · 9th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM |
Virginia United 6th · 1-1-3 · GD -6 |
Home Glover Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–1 | 1.67 | 0.81 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 01:00 PM |
Villarreal Virginia Academy 8th · 0-2-4 · GD -12 |
Home Striker Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
2–1 | 2.03 | 0.96 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | VSA | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 3 | +16 | 19 | 2.71 | DWWWW | -0.08 | -0.51 | 100% | 1.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at SOCA Elite See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Prince William Courage /09 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 6 | +15 | 16 | 2.67 | DWWWW | -0.32 | +0.24 | 100% | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Vienna Youth Soccer · Sun Nov 1 at Villarreal Virginia Academy See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Vienna Youth Soccer | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 5 | +17 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWWL | -0.15 | -0.38 | 100% | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Prince William Courage /09 · Sun Nov 1 at LMVSC See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Richmond United Red | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 9 | 1.50 | LWLWL | +0.19 | -0.58 | 77% | 4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Virginia United · Sun Nov 1 at SOCA Elite See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | SOCA Elite | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 7 | 1.40 | WLWDL | -0.07 | +0.37 | 16% | 5.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs VSA · Sat Oct 31 at Virginia United · Sun Nov 1 vs Richmond United Red See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Virginia United | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 4 | 0.80 | LDLWL | +0.23 | -0.20 | 5% | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Richmond United Orange · Sun Oct 25 at Richmond United Red · Sat Oct 31 vs SOCA Elite See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Richmond United Orange | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 4 | 0.67 | WLLLD | +0.34 | -0.95 | 1% | 6.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Virginia United · Sun Oct 25 vs Villarreal Virginia Academy See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Villarreal Virginia Academy | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 2 | 0.33 | LDLLD | -0.04 | +0.59 | 0% | 7.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Richmond United Orange · Sun Nov 1 vs Prince William Courage /09 See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | LMVSC | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 26 | -24 | 1 | 0.14 | LLLLD | -0.02 | +1.74 | 0% | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Vienna Youth Soccer See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.95 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.