SOCA Elite
ECNL Regional League Boys · Virginia BU18/19 · 9 teams · SOCA (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM
South Fork Soccer Park, Field 4 ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 0.9 for, 2.6 against · 0.45 expected points)
| Season so far | SOCA Elite | VSA |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-1-2 | 6-1-0 |
| Points per game | 1.40 | 2.71 |
| Goals for / game | 1.6 | 2.7 |
| Goals against / game | 2.4 | 0.4 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 4 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L D W L W | W W W W D |
| Biggest win | 4–0 at LMVSC | 4–0 at Villarreal Virginia Academy |
| Worst loss | 1–6 at Vienna Youth Soccer | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.51 | +1.51 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.07 | -0.08 |
Common opponents: Villarreal Virginia Academy — we 1–0; they 4–0. Vienna Youth Soccer — we 1–6; they 2–1. LMVSC — we 4–0; they 3–0. Richmond United Orange — we 1–1; they 3–1. Prince William Courage /09 — we 1–5; they 1–1.
Game plan
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Hard to break down
VSA concede only 0.4/game with 4 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 10%; a draw (15%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
VSA have won 4 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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What a win does
Richmond United Red sit 4th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.40.A point moves us above Richmond United Red on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the VSA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SOCA Elite – VSA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.17 PPG |
5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 2 |
| Win 1.67 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Draw 1.33 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.17 PPG |
5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–2 loss we stay 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th 16%
- 5th 38%
- 6th 31%
- 7th 15%
- 8th <1%
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VSA | 2.71 (+1.31) | 1st (2.68) | 15 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Prince William Courage /09 | 2.67 (+1.27) | 2nd (2.50) | 15 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Vienna Youth Soccer | 2.50 (+1.10) | 3rd (2.41) | 13 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Richmond United Red | 1.50 (+0.10) | 4th (1.59) | A point next game |
How the results connect
26 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link SOCA Elite to VSA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.37 · 3rd hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM |
VSA 1st · 6-1-0 · GD +16 |
Home South Fork Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
0–2 | 0.45 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
Virginia United 6th · 1-1-3 · GD -6 |
Away far trip
Kroger Soccer Park (Highland Farm Rd) |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
2–2 | 1.29 | 1.25 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 03:15 PM |
Richmond United Red 4th · 3-0-3 · GD +2 |
Home South Fork Soccer Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–2 | 1.11 | 1.23 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | VSA | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 3 | +16 | 19 | 2.71 | DWWWW | -0.08 | -0.51 | 100% | 1.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at SOCA Elite See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Prince William Courage /09 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 6 | +15 | 16 | 2.67 | DWWWW | -0.32 | +0.24 | 100% | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Vienna Youth Soccer · Sun Nov 1 at Villarreal Virginia Academy See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Vienna Youth Soccer | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 5 | +17 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWWL | -0.15 | -0.38 | 100% | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Prince William Courage /09 · Sun Nov 1 at LMVSC See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Richmond United Red | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 9 | 1.50 | LWLWL | +0.19 | -0.58 | 77% | 4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Virginia United · Sun Nov 1 at SOCA Elite See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | SOCA Elite | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 7 | 1.40 | WLWDL | -0.07 | +0.37 | 16% | 5.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs VSA · Sat Oct 31 at Virginia United · Sun Nov 1 vs Richmond United Red See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Virginia United | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 4 | 0.80 | LDLWL | +0.23 | -0.20 | 5% | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Richmond United Orange · Sun Oct 25 at Richmond United Red · Sat Oct 31 vs SOCA Elite See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Richmond United Orange | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 4 | 0.67 | WLLLD | +0.34 | -0.95 | 1% | 6.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Virginia United · Sun Oct 25 vs Villarreal Virginia Academy See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Villarreal Virginia Academy | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 2 | 0.33 | LDLLD | -0.04 | +0.59 | 0% | 7.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Richmond United Orange · Sun Nov 1 vs Prince William Courage /09 See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | LMVSC | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 26 | -24 | 1 | 0.14 | LLLLD | -0.02 | +1.74 | 0% | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Vienna Youth Soccer See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.95 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.