Great Falls Reston Soccer Club

ECNL Regional League Boys · Virginia BU18/19 · 9 teams · Great Falls Reston Soccer Club (all teams)

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1st

5-0-0 record · 5 played

3.00 points per game

+12 goal diff · 18–6

WWWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.1

-0.08 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:00 PM

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Great Falls Reston Soccer Club
1st · 3.00 PPG

Virginia Valor FC
7th · 0.67 PPG

Westfield High School, Stadium ↗ · turf?

81% 11% 9%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.8 for, 1.4 against · 2.52 expected points)

Season so far	Great Falls Reston Soccer Club	Virginia Valor FC
Position	1st	7th
Record (W-D-L)	5-0-0	1-1-4
Points per game	3.00	0.67
Goals for / game	3.6	1.3
Goals against / game	1.2	3.2
Clean sheets	1	0
Held scoreless	0	3
Form (recent first)	W W W W W	L L W D L
Biggest win	5–1 vs Arlington Soccer Association	3–2 vs Stafford Revolution
Worst loss	—	0–5 vs VA Reign FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.46	-1.09
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.08	+0.43

Common opponents: Arlington Soccer Association — we 5–1; they 0–2. Beach FC — we 2–0; they 0–3. Herndon — we 3–1; they 4–4. VA Reign FC — we 3–2; they 0–5.

Game plan

They leak goals — be greedy
Virginia Valor FC concede 3.2/game; worst result 0–5 vs VA Reign FC.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 81% chance; likely score 3–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Away game
Kickoff 04:00 PM at Westfield High School.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Virginia Valor FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Great Falls Reston Soccer Club – Virginia Valor FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.67 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 2.50 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

87% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.1 average finish

1st 87%
2nd 12%
3rd 1%
4th <1%
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

21 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Great Falls Reston Soccer Club to Virginia Valor FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

17 favour us

3 even

1 favour them

+3.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.19 · 6th hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 04:00 PM	Virginia Valor FC 7th · 1-1-4 · GD -11	Away Westfield High School · turf?	●○○○○ Favorable	81%	3–1	2.52	2.92	Bank it
Sun Oct 25 03:30 PM	Stafford Revolution 8th · 1-1-4 · GD -14	Home Ken Lawrence Park	●○○○○ Favorable	91%	4–1	2.79	2.90	Bank it
Sun Nov 1 02:00 PM	Richmond United Blue 2nd · 4-2-0 · GD +20	Home Lake Fairfax Park	●●●●○ Tough	25%	1–2	0.97	2.66	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Great Falls Reston Soccer Club

+12

3.00

WWWWW

-0.08

-0.19

100%

1.1

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	VA Reign FC (4th)	3–2
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Herndon (6th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Beach FC (3rd)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (5th)	5–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	BRYC Academy (9th)	5–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Virginia Valor FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Stafford Revolution · Sun Nov 1 vs Richmond United Blue See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Virginia Valor FC (7th)	3–1	81%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Stafford Revolution (8th)	4–1	91%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Richmond United Blue (2nd)	1–2	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Richmond United Blue

+20

2.33

WWDWD

-0.48

+0.55

100%

2.0

D	Sat Oct 17	vs	VA Reign FC (4th)	0–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	BRYC Academy (9th)	10–0
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Arlington Soccer Association (5th)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Virginia Valor FC (7th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Beach FC (3rd)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Stafford Revolution (8th)	7–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Herndon · Sun Nov 1 at Great Falls Reston Soccer Club See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Herndon (6th)	3–0	82%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Great Falls Reston Soccer Club (1st)	2–1	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Beach FC

+12

2.00

LWLWW

-0.37

+0.76

87%

3.6

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Herndon (6th)	3–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Virginia Valor FC (7th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Great Falls Reston Soccer Club (1st)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Stafford Revolution (8th)	5–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Richmond United Blue (2nd)	0–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	BRYC Academy (9th)	6–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at VA Reign FC · Sun Nov 1 at Arlington Soccer Association See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	VA Reign FC (4th)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Arlington Soccer Association (5th)	1–0	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

VA Reign FC

+15

1.83

WDWDL

-0.25

+0.37

93%

3.4

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Great Falls Reston Soccer Club (1st)	2–3
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Richmond United Blue (2nd)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	BRYC Academy (9th)	8–0
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (5th)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Virginia Valor FC (7th)	5–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Stafford Revolution (8th)	3–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Beach FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Herndon See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Beach FC (3rd)	1–1	51%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Herndon (6th)	3–1	82%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arlington Soccer Association

-1

1.50

LDDDW

+0.29

-0.98

21%

4.8

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Virginia Valor FC (7th)	2–0
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Stafford Revolution (8th)	2–2
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Richmond United Blue (2nd)	0–0
D	Sun Sep 20	at	VA Reign FC (4th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Great Falls Reston Soccer Club (1st)	1–5
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Herndon (6th)	2–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at BRYC Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Beach FC See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	BRYC Academy (9th)	3–1	76%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Beach FC (3rd)	0–1	23%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Herndon

-2

0.80

LWDLL

-0.26

+0.69

6.6

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Beach FC (3rd)	1–3
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Great Falls Reston Soccer Club (1st)	1–3
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Virginia Valor FC (7th)	4–4
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	BRYC Academy (9th)	5–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Arlington Soccer Association (5th)	1–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Richmond United Blue · Sun Nov 1 at VA Reign FC · Sun Nov 8 at Stafford Revolution See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Richmond United Blue (2nd)	0–3	7%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	VA Reign FC (4th)	1–3	8%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Stafford Revolution (8th)	2–1	58%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Virginia Valor FC

-11

0.67

LDWLL

+0.43

-0.81

6.8

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Arlington Soccer Association (5th)	0–2
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Beach FC (3rd)	0–3
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Stafford Revolution (8th)	3–2
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Herndon (6th)	4–4
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Richmond United Blue (2nd)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	VA Reign FC (4th)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Great Falls Reston Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at BRYC Academy See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Great Falls Reston Soccer Club (1st)	1–3	9%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	BRYC Academy (9th)	3–1	66%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Stafford Revolution

-14

0.67

LLLDW

-0.06

+0.55

7.6

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	BRYC Academy (9th)	2–1
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (5th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Virginia Valor FC (7th)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Beach FC (3rd)	1–5
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Richmond United Blue (2nd)	0–7
L	Sun Aug 30	at	VA Reign FC (4th)	0–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Great Falls Reston Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 vs Herndon See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Great Falls Reston Soccer Club (1st)	1–4	3%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Herndon (6th)	1–2	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

BRYC Academy

-31

0.00

LLLLL

+0.66

-0.56

9.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Stafford Revolution (8th)	1–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Richmond United Blue (2nd)	0–10
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	VA Reign FC (4th)	0–8
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Herndon (6th)	2–5
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Great Falls Reston Soccer Club (1st)	2–5
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Beach FC (3rd)	0–6

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Arlington Soccer Association · Sun Nov 1 vs Virginia Valor FC See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (5th)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Virginia Valor FC (7th)	1–3	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.10 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.