TableChase Clubs

Virginia United

ECNL Regional League Boys · Virginia BU17 · 9 teams · VA United (all teams)

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3rd
4-0-1 record · 5 played
2.40 points per game
+6 goal diff · 13–7
WLWWWlast 5
99% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.5
-0.02 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:00 PM

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Virginia United
3rd · 2.40 PPG
at
Richmond United Orange
5th · 1.67 PPG

Glover Park, Field 4 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.6 against · 1.55 expected points)

Season so farVirginia UnitedRichmond United Orange
Position3rd5th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-13-1-2
Points per game2.401.67
Goals for / game2.61.8
Goals against / game1.41.3
Clean sheets32
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)W W W L WW W L L W
Biggest win4–0 vs Vienna Youth Soccer4–0 at LMVSC
Worst loss0–6 at Villarreal Virginia Academy2–4 vs Prince William Courage
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.73+0.19
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.02-0.58

Common opponents: VSA — we 3–0; they 0–2. Vienna Youth Soccer — we 4–0; they 1–1. LMVSC — we 3–0; they 4–0. Prince William Courage — we 3–1; they 2–4.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–6 at Villarreal Virginia Academy.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 44% / draw 22% / loss 33%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 03:00 PM at Glover Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Prince William Courage sit 2nd on 2.40 PPG; we are on 2.40.

    A point moves us above Prince William Courage on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Richmond United Orange game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Virginia United – Richmond United Orange) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.17 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Win
2.50 PPG		 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
2.17 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Loss
2.00 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st
99% top 4
1% below the top 4
2.5 average finish
  1. 1st 1%
  2. 2nd 54%
  3. 3rd 39%
  4. 4th 5%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Villarreal Virginia Academy 3.00 (+0.60) 1st (2.87) 12 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Prince William Courage 2.40 (+0.00) 3rd (2.16) A point next game

How the results connect

23 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Virginia United to Richmond United Orange through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

15 favour us
8 favour them
+1.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–0 0–4 3–1 4–2 4–0 1–1 3–0 2–0 1–0 1–3 0–4 0–6 3–0 0–3 6–1 0–1 9–1 Virginia United 3rd LMVSC 8th Prince William Cour… 2nd Vienna Youth Soccer 7th VSA 4th Villarreal Virginia… 1st Richmond United Red 6th SOCA Elite 9th Richmond United Ora… 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 5th 9th Aug 29 Sep 13 Sep 27 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.24 · 6th hardest of 9

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
03:00 PM		 Richmond United Orange
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +3		 Away far trip
Glover Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 1–1 1.55 2.26 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
02:00 PM		 Richmond United Red
6th · 2-0-4 · GD +2		 Away far trip
Ukrop Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
47%		 2–1 1.61 2.17 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
01:00 PM		 SOCA Elite
9th · 0-0-4 · GD -8		 Home
Kroger Soccer Park (Highland Farm Rd)		 ●○○○○ Favorable
79%		 2–0 2.50 2.21 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Villarreal Virginia Academy 6600 313+28 183.00 WWWWW -0.68 +0.46 100% 1.0
2 Prince William Courage 5401 125+7 122.40 WWWWL -0.14 +0.16 100% 2.6
3 Virginia United 5401 137+6 122.40 WLWWW -0.02 -0.24 99% 2.5
4 VSA 7403 98+1 121.71 LLWWW +0.16 -1.08 82% 4.1
5 Richmond United Orange 6312 118+3 101.67 WLLWW -0.58 +1.78 18% 5.0
6 Richmond United Red 6204 1412+2 61.00 WWLLL +0.03 -0.17 2% 5.8
7 Vienna Youth Soccer 6114 316-13 40.67 LWLLL +0.54 -0.80 0% 7.3
8 LMVSC 7106 329-26 30.43 LLWLL +0.59 -1.28 0% 8.1
9 SOCA Elite 4004 19-8 00.00 LLLL -0.23 +0.45 0% 8.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.76 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.