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Villarreal Virginia Academy

ECNL Regional League Boys · Virginia BU15 · 9 teams · Villarreal Virginia Academy (all teams)

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9th
0-0-6 record · 6 played
0.00 points per game
-24 goal diff · 4–28
LLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.0
+0.31 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:00 PM

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Villarreal Virginia Academy
9th · 0.00 PPG
at
Richmond United Orange
7th · 1.00 PPG

Striker Park, Field 1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–3 (expected goals 0.9 for, 3.4 against · 0.29 expected points)

Season so farVillarreal Virginia AcademyRichmond United Orange
Position9th7th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-61-3-2
Points per game0.001.00
Goals for / game0.71.3
Goals against / game4.71.3
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless52
Form (recent first)L L L L LW D D L D
Biggest win—4–1 vs SOCA Elite
Worst loss0–10 vs Virginia United1–3 vs Prince William Courage
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-2.50+0.06
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.31+0.08

Common opponents: Richmond United Red — we 0–2; they 0–0. SOCA Elite — we 0–4; they 4–1. VSA — we 0–3; they 2–2. Vienna Youth Soccer — we 0–2; they 0–1. LMVSC — we 4–7; they 1–1.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–2 vs Richmond United Red, 0–4 at SOCA Elite, 0–10 vs Virginia United, 0–3 vs VSA, 0–2 at Vienna Youth Soccer.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 6%; a draw (10%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 03:00 PM at Striker Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Richmond United Orange game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Villarreal Virginia Academy – Richmond United Orange) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 9th— holds
Win
0.43 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 9th— holds
Draw
0.14 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 9th— holds
Loss
0.00 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 9th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–3 loss we stay 9th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
9.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th 100%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 0.75 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Virginia United 2.60 (+2.60) 1st (2.49) 21 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 VSA 2.14 (+2.14) 2nd (2.13) 18 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Richmond United Red 1.67 (+1.67) 4th (1.54) 14 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 LMVSC 1.43 (+1.43) 5th (1.49) 12 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Prince William Courage 1.40 (+1.40) 3rd (1.72) 12 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Vienna Youth Soccer 1.17 (+1.17) 7th (1.05) 10 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 Richmond United Orange 1.00 (+1.00) 6th (1.15) 8 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
8 SOCA Elite 1.00 (+1.00) 8th (0.90) 8 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

26 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Villarreal Virginia Academy to Richmond United Orange through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
2 even
22 favour them
-3.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–2 1–0 0–2 0–0 4–7 1–1 0–3 2–2 0–4 1–4 3–0 2–1 2–2 3–1 2–1 2–1 4–0 1–0 Villarreal Virginia… 9th Vienna Youth Soccer 6th Richmond United Red 3rd LMVSC 4th VSA 2nd SOCA Elite 8th Prince William Cour… 5th Richmond United Ora… 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 5th 9th Aug 29 Sep 13 Sep 27 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.30 · 3rd hardest of 9

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
03:00 PM		 Richmond United Orange
7th · 1-3-2 · GD +0		 Away far trip
Striker Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
6%		 0–3 0.29 0.04 Upside
Sun Nov 1
11:40 AM		 Prince William Courage
5th · 2-1-2 · GD +3		 Home
Justice High School · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
5%		 1–4 0.23 0.07 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Virginia United 5410 245+19 132.60 DWWWW -0.37 -0.04 100% 1.1
2 VSA 7430 187+11 152.14 DWDWW -0.13 -0.35 100% 2.0
3 Richmond United Red 6312 75+2 101.67 WLWDL -0.21 +0.89 61% 4.3
4 LMVSC 7313 1316-3 101.43 DWWLW +0.09 -0.78 41% 4.7
5 Prince William Courage 5212 129+3 71.40 WDWLL +0.70 -1.21 87% 3.4
6 Vienna Youth Soccer 6213 512-7 71.17 LDLWL +0.09 +0.16 3% 7.0
7 Richmond United Orange 6132 88+0 61.00 DLDDW +0.08 -0.19 4% 6.3
8 SOCA Elite 4112 67-1 41.00 WDLL -0.77 +0.97 4% 7.2
9 Villarreal Virginia Academy 6006 428-24 00.00 LLLLL +0.31 +0.30 0% 9.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.86 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.