LMVSC
ECNL Regional League Boys · Virginia BU15 · 9 teams · Lee-Mt. Vernon Sports Club (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 09:00 AM
Thomas A. Edison High School Stadium, Field 1 ↗ · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.1 for, 1.3 against · 1.93 expected points)
| Season so far | LMVSC | Vienna Youth Soccer |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-1-3 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per game | 1.43 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / game | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| Goals against / game | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W L W W D | L W L D L |
| Biggest win | 7–4 vs Villarreal Virginia Academy | 2–0 vs Villarreal Virginia Academy |
| Worst loss | 0–3 at VSA | 0–5 at Virginia United |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.21 | -0.78 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.09 | +0.09 |
Common opponents: VSA — we 0–3; they 0–4. Richmond United Orange — we 1–1; they 1–0. Richmond United Red — we 2–1; they 1–2. SOCA Elite — we 2–0; they 1–1. Virginia United — we 0–3; they 0–5. Villarreal Virginia Academy — we 7–4; they 2–0.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Vienna Youth Soccer average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 1.9); blanked in 2 of 6.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 at VSA, 0–3 at Virginia United.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 58% / draw 21% / loss 22%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Vienna Youth Soccer game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LMVSC – Vienna Youth Soccer) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.63 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 6th▼ down 2 |
| Win 1.63 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 6th▼ down 2 |
| Draw 1.38 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.25 PPG |
6th▼ down 2 | 6th▼ down 2 | 7th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd 6%
- 4th 35%
- 5th 44%
- 6th 11%
- 7th 3%
- 8th <1%
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 1.63 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virginia United | 2.60 (+1.17) | 1st (2.49) | 11 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | VSA | 2.14 (+0.71) | 2nd (2.13) | 8 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Richmond United Red | 1.67 (+0.24) | 4th (1.54) | 4 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 3 for their projection |
How the results connect
28 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link LMVSC to Vienna Youth Soccer through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
7 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.78 · 8th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 09:00 AM |
Vienna Youth Soccer 6th · 2-1-3 · GD -7 |
Home Thomas A. Edison High School Stadium · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 58% |
2–1 | 1.93 | 1.49 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Virginia United | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 5 | +19 | 13 | 2.60 | DWWWW | -0.37 | -0.04 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Richmond United Orange · Sun Oct 25 at Richmond United Red · Sat Oct 31 vs SOCA Elite See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | VSA | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 15 | 2.14 | DWDWW | -0.13 | -0.35 | 100% | 2.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at SOCA Elite See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Richmond United Red | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 10 | 1.67 | WLWDL | -0.21 | +0.89 | 61% | 4.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Virginia United · Sun Nov 1 at SOCA Elite See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | LMVSC | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 10 | 1.43 | DWWLW | +0.09 | -0.78 | 41% | 4.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Vienna Youth Soccer See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Prince William Courage | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 7 | 1.40 | WDWLL | +0.70 | -1.21 | 87% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at SOCA Elite · Sun Oct 25 vs Vienna Youth Soccer · Sun Nov 1 at Villarreal Virginia Academy See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Vienna Youth Soccer | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 7 | 1.17 | LDLWL | +0.09 | +0.16 | 3% | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Prince William Courage · Sun Nov 1 at LMVSC See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Richmond United Orange | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | +0 | 6 | 1.00 | DLDDW | +0.08 | -0.19 | 4% | 6.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Virginia United · Sun Oct 25 vs Villarreal Virginia Academy See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | SOCA Elite | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 4 | 1.00 | WDLL | -0.77 | +0.97 | 4% | 7.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Prince William Courage · Sun Oct 25 vs VSA · Sat Oct 31 at Virginia United See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Villarreal Virginia Academy | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 28 | -24 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.31 | +0.30 | 0% | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Richmond United Orange · Sun Nov 1 vs Prince William Courage See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.86 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.