TableChase Clubs

BRYC Academy

ECNL Regional League Boys · Virginia BU15 · 9 teams · Braddock Road Youth Club (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 28 minutes ago.
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6th
3-0-3 record · 6 played
1.50 points per game
-6 goal diff · 6–12
WWWLLlast 5
2% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.7
+0.18 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:00 AM

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BRYC Academy
6th · 1.50 PPG
vs
Arlington Soccer Association
3rd · 2.00 PPG

Woodson High School, Stadium Turf ↗ · turf

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.2 for, 2.6 against · 0.65 expected points)

Season so farBRYC AcademyArlington Soccer Association
Position6th3rd
Record (W-D-L)3-0-34-0-2
Points per game1.502.00
Goals for / game1.03.2
Goals against / game2.01.5
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless20
Form (recent first)L L W W WW W L L W
Biggest win2–0 vs Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL7–0 at Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL
Worst loss0–6 at Stafford Revolution1–3 vs Richmond United Blue
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.63+1.06
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.18-0.06

Common opponents: Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL — we 2–0; they 7–0. Herndon — we 2–1; they 3–1. VA Reign FC — we 1–0; they 1–2. Richmond United Blue — we 1–4; they 1–3. Stafford Revolution — we 0–6; they 4–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Arlington Soccer Association score 3.2/game — well above the league's 1.9.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 at Beach FC, 0–6 at Stafford Revolution.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 16%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Arlington Soccer Association game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (BRYC Academy – Arlington Soccer Association) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.29 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Win
1.71 PPG		 6th— holds 5th▲ up 1 6th— holds
Draw
1.43 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Loss
1.29 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
2% top 4
98% below the top 4
5.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 2%
  5. 5th 35%
  6. 6th 50%
  7. 7th 13%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 1.88 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Stafford Revolution 2.17 (+0.67) 1st (2.29) 9 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 VA Reign FC 2.00 (+0.50) 3rd (2.12) 7 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Arlington Soccer Association 2.00 (+0.50) 4th (2.04) 7 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Richmond United Blue 2.00 (+0.50) 2nd (2.14) 7 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Beach FC 1.83 (+0.33) 5th (1.51) 6 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 4 for their projection

How the results connect

24 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link BRYC Academy to Arlington Soccer Association through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
19 favour them
-2.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–4 3–1 2–1 1–3 1–0 2–1 2–0 0–7 0–6 1–4 5–0 2–3 0–1 1–2 5–0 0–1 2–2 1–0 3–2 BRYC Academy 6th Richmond United Blue 4th Herndon 8th VA Reign FC 2nd Great Falls Reston … 9th Stafford Revolution 1st Beach FC 5th Virginia Valor FC 7th Arlington Soccer As… 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 5th 9th Aug 29 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.06 · 4th hardest of 9

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
11:00 AM		 Arlington Soccer Association
3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +10		 Home
Woodson High School · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
16%		 1–2 0.65 1.38 Upside
Sun Nov 1
04:15 PM		 Virginia Valor FC
7th · 1-1-4 · GD -13		 Home
Woodson High School · turf		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 1–1 1.76 1.43 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Stafford Revolution 6411 199+10 132.17 WDWLW +0.25 -1.63 100% 1.5
2 VA Reign FC 6402 205+15 122.00 WWLWW -0.21 -0.44 98% 2.5
3 Arlington Soccer Association 6402 199+10 122.00 WLLWW -0.06 -0.42 93% 3.4
4 Richmond United Blue 6402 199+10 122.00 WWWWL +0.34 -1.63 100% 2.8
5 Beach FC 6321 78-1 111.83 LDWDW -0.47 +1.36 7% 5.3
6 BRYC Academy 6303 612-6 91.50 WWWLL +0.18 -0.06 2% 5.7
7 Virginia Valor FC 6114 518-13 40.67 LWLDL +0.69 -1.62 0% 7.0
8 Herndon 5104 48-4 30.60 LLLWL -0.75 +1.35 0% 7.9
9 Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL 5005 122-21 00.00 LLLLL +0.28 +0.41 0% 9.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.93 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.