Arlington Soccer Association

ECNL Regional League Boys · Virginia BU15 · 9 teams · Arlington Soccer Association (all teams)

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3rd

4-0-2 record · 6 played

2.00 points per game

+10 goal diff · 19–9

WLLWWlast 5

94% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.4

-0.06 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:00 AM

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Arlington Soccer Association
3rd · 2.00 PPG

BRYC Academy
6th · 1.50 PPG

Woodson High School, Stadium Turf ↗ · turf far trip

67% 17% 16%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.6 for, 1.2 against · 2.18 expected points)

Season so far	Arlington Soccer Association	BRYC Academy
Position	3rd	6th
Record (W-D-L)	4-0-2	3-0-3
Points per game	2.00	1.50
Goals for / game	3.2	1.0
Goals against / game	1.5	2.0
Clean sheets	1	2
Held scoreless	0	2
Form (recent first)	W W L L W	L L W W W
Biggest win	7–0 at Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL	2–0 vs Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL
Worst loss	1–3 vs Richmond United Blue	0–6 at Stafford Revolution
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.06	-0.63
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.06	+0.18

Common opponents: Herndon — we 3–1; they 2–1. Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL — we 7–0; they 2–0. VA Reign FC — we 1–2; they 1–0. Richmond United Blue — we 1–3; they 1–4. Stafford Revolution — we 4–1; they 0–6.

Game plan

Swing game — small margins
Win 67% / draw 17% / loss 16%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Woodson High School.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
VA Reign FC sit 2nd on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.
A point moves us above VA Reign FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the BRYC Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Arlington Soccer Association – BRYC Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.14 PPG	2nd▲ up 1	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Win 2.14 PPG	2nd▲ up 1	4th▼ down 1	3rd— holds
Draw 1.86 PPG	4th▼ down 1	4th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 2
Loss 1.71 PPG	5th▼ down 2	4th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

2% finish 1st

94% top 4

6% below the top 4

3.4 average finish

1st 2%
2nd 15%
3rd 28%
4th 48%
5th 4%
6th 2%
7th
8th
9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Stafford Revolution	2.17 (+0.17)	1st (2.29)	6 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	VA Reign FC	2.00 (+0.00)	3rd (2.12)	A point next game

How the results connect

24 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Arlington Soccer Association to BRYC Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

19 favour us

5 favour them

+2.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.42 · 5th hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM	BRYC Academy 6th · 3-0-3 · GD -6	Away far trip Woodson High School · turf	●●○○○ Lean win	67%	2–1	2.18	2.03	Swing game
Sun Nov 1 03:30 PM	Beach FC 5th · 3-2-1 · GD -1	Home Gunston Middle School	●●○○○ Lean win	66%	2–1	2.16	2.04	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Stafford Revolution

+10

2.17

WDWLW

+0.25

-1.63

100%

1.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	BRYC Academy (6th)	6–0
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (3rd)	1–4
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Virginia Valor FC (7th)	5–0
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Beach FC (5th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Richmond United Blue (4th)	3–2
W	Sun Aug 30	at	VA Reign FC (2nd)	2–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL · Sun Nov 8 vs Herndon See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL (9th)	4–0	94%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Herndon (8th)	2–0	78%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

VA Reign FC

+15

2.00

WWLWW

-0.21

-0.44

97%

2.5

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL (9th)	10–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Richmond United Blue (4th)	4–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	BRYC Academy (6th)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (3rd)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Virginia Valor FC (7th)	3–0
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Stafford Revolution (1st)	1–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Beach FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Herndon See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Beach FC (5th)	2–0	75%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Herndon (8th)	2–0	83%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arlington Soccer Association

+10

2.00

WLLWW

-0.06

-0.42

94%

3.4

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Virginia Valor FC (7th)	3–2
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Stafford Revolution (1st)	4–1
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Richmond United Blue (4th)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	VA Reign FC (2nd)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL (9th)	7–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Herndon (8th)	3–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at BRYC Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Beach FC See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	BRYC Academy (6th)	2–1	67%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Beach FC (5th)	2–1	66%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Richmond United Blue

+10

2.00

WWWWL

+0.34

-1.63

99%

2.8

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	VA Reign FC (2nd)	1–4
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	BRYC Academy (6th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Arlington Soccer Association (3rd)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Virginia Valor FC (7th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Beach FC (5th)	4–0
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Stafford Revolution (1st)	2–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Herndon · Sun Nov 1 at Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Herndon (8th)	2–1	69%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL (9th)	4–0	94%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Beach FC

-1

1.83

LDWDW

-0.47

+1.36

5.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Herndon (8th)	1–0
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Virginia Valor FC (7th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL (9th)	1–0
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Stafford Revolution (1st)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Richmond United Blue (4th)	0–4
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	BRYC Academy (6th)	1–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at VA Reign FC · Sun Nov 1 at Arlington Soccer Association See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	VA Reign FC (2nd)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Arlington Soccer Association (3rd)	1–2	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

BRYC Academy

-6

1.50

WWWLL

+0.18

-0.06

5.7

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Stafford Revolution (1st)	0–6
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Richmond United Blue (4th)	1–4
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	VA Reign FC (2nd)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Herndon (8th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL (9th)	2–0
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Beach FC (5th)	0–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Arlington Soccer Association · Sun Nov 1 vs Virginia Valor FC See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (3rd)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Virginia Valor FC (7th)	1–1	51%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Virginia Valor FC

-13

0.67

LWLDL

+0.69

-1.62

7.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Arlington Soccer Association (3rd)	2–3
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Beach FC (5th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Stafford Revolution (1st)	0–5
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Herndon (8th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Richmond United Blue (4th)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	VA Reign FC (2nd)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL · Sun Nov 1 at BRYC Academy See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL (9th)	2–1	68%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	BRYC Academy (6th)	1–1	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Herndon

-4

0.60

LLLWL

-0.75

+1.35

7.9

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Beach FC (5th)	0–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL (9th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Virginia Valor FC (7th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	BRYC Academy (6th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Arlington Soccer Association (3rd)	1–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Richmond United Blue · Sun Nov 1 at VA Reign FC · Sun Nov 8 at Stafford Revolution See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Richmond United Blue (4th)	1–2	14%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	VA Reign FC (2nd)	0–2	6%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Stafford Revolution (1st)	0–2	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL

-21

0.00

LLLLL

+0.28

+0.41

9.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	VA Reign FC (2nd)	0–10
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Herndon (8th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Beach FC (5th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (3rd)	0–7
L	Sun Sep 13	at	BRYC Academy (6th)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Virginia Valor FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Stafford Revolution · Sun Nov 1 vs Richmond United Blue See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Virginia Valor FC (7th)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Stafford Revolution (1st)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Richmond United Blue (4th)	0–4	2%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.93 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.