Lonestar ATX White

ECNL Regional League Boys · Texas BU16 · 16 teams · Lonestar ATX (all teams)

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6th

3-1-2 record · 6 played

1.67 points per game

+1 goal diff · 12–11

WWWDLlast 5

23% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.2

+0.53 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:00 PM

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Lonestar ATX White
6th · 1.67 PPG

DKSC
12th · 1.17 PPG

Coppell Middle School West, Field 1 ↗ far trip

48% 22% 30%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.5 against · 1.67 expected points)

Season so far	Lonestar ATX White	DKSC
Position	6th	12th
Record (W-D-L)	3-1-2	2-1-3
Points per game	1.67	1.17
Goals for / game	2.0	1.2
Goals against / game	1.8	2.0
Clean sheets	2	0
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	L D W W W	D L L W L
Biggest win	4–0 vs HTX S	2–1 at CHALLENGE UNITED
Worst loss	1–4 at RISE SC	1–4 at SOLAR SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.22	-0.44
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.53	+0.42

Common opponents: HTX S — we 4–0; they 1–1. Houstonians FC — we 3–2; they 0–3. SOLAR SC — we 2–2; they 1–4. Sting — we 1–3; they 2–1.

Game plan

Swing game — small margins
Win 48% / draw 22% / loss 30%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Away game
Kickoff 03:00 PM at Coppell Middle School West.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the DKSC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lonestar ATX White – DKSC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.57 PPG	7th▼ down 1	6th— holds	8th▼ down 2
Win 1.86 PPG	6th— holds	5th▲ up 1	7th▼ down 1
Draw 1.57 PPG	7th▼ down 1	6th— holds	8th▼ down 2
Loss 1.43 PPG	8th▼ down 2	8th▼ down 2	10th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

2% finish 1st

23% top 4

77% below the top 4

6.2 average finish

1st 2%
2nd 4%
3rd 7%
4th 10%
5th 16%
6th 18%
7th 16%
8th 10%
9th 7%
10th 4%
11th 3%
12th 2%
13th 1%
14th <1%
15th <1%
16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.47 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	FC Westlake	2.50 (+0.83)	4th (1.94)	28 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
2	HTX N	2.29 (+0.62)	3rd (1.98)	25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
3	RISE SC	2.25 (+0.58)	2nd (2.03)	24 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
4	Albion Hurricanes FC	2.25 (+0.58)	5th (1.80)	24 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
5	Houstonians FC	2.00 (+0.33)	1st (2.09)	20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection

How the results connect

14 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Lonestar ATX White to DKSC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

10 favour us

4 favour them

+2.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.36 · 16th hardest of 16

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 3 01:00 PM no score posted	SAFC 9th · 3-1-3 · GD -1	Home Lakeline Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	51%	2–1	1.73	1.68	Swing game
Sat Oct 24 03:00 PM	DKSC 12th · 2-1-3 · GD -5	Away far trip Coppell Middle School West	●●●○○ Toss-up	48%	1–1	1.67	1.68	Swing game
Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM	Nido Dallas 15th · 0-2-3 · GD -10	Away far trip Saginaw High School	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	2–1	2.09	1.72	Swing game
Sat Nov 14 01:00 PM	Dallas Texans 14th · 1-2-4 · GD -7	Home Tippit Middle School	●●○○○ Lean win	63%	1–0	2.10	1.76	Swing game
Sun Nov 15 11:00 AM	FC Dallas Youth 11th · 3-1-4 · GD -1	Home Tippit Middle School	●●●○○ Toss-up	54%	2–1	1.81	1.76	Swing game
Sat Apr 24 01:00 PM	FC Westlake 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +6	Away far trip Onion Creek Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	23%	1–1	0.90	1.69	Upside
Sat May 1 03:00 PM	San Antonio City SC 16th · 0-1-6 · GD -21	Away far trip Specht Soccer Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	80%	3–0	2.52	1.76	Bank it
Sat May 8 02:00 PM	HTX N 2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +8	Away far trip Gosling Sports Fields	●●●●● Very tough	24%	1–1	0.94	1.70	Upside
Sun May 9 12:00 PM	CHALLENGE UNITED 10th · 2-3-2 · GD +2	Away far trip Burroughs Park	●●●●○ Tough	37%	1–1	1.35	1.67	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

FC Westlake

2.50

WWWD

-0.41

+0.12

63%

3.9

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	SOLAR SC (7th)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sting (13th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	San Antonio City SC (16th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	HTX S (8th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Nido Dallas · Sun Oct 25 at DKSC · Sat Oct 31 at HTX N See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Nido Dallas (15th)	2–0	71%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	DKSC (12th)	1–0	57%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	HTX N (2nd)	1–1	34%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED (10th)	1–0	55%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Houstonians FC (5th)	1–1	27%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	FC Dallas Youth (11th)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Dallas Texans (14th)	1–0	67%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (4th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	RISE SC (3rd)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Lonestar ATX White (6th)	1–1	55%
·	Sat May 1	at	SAFC (9th)	1–1	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

HTX N

2.29

DWWLW

-0.42

+0.36

72%

3.5

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Dallas Texans (14th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Dallas Youth (11th)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Houstonians FC (5th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	DKSC (12th)	2–1
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Nido Dallas (15th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	SAFC (9th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	San Antonio City SC (16th)	5–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs HTX S · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Westlake · Sat Nov 7 vs RISE SC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	HTX S (8th)	1–1	56%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Westlake (1st)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	RISE SC (3rd)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	SOLAR SC (7th)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Sting (13th)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	CHALLENGE UNITED (10th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (4th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Lonestar ATX White (6th)	1–1	54%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

RISE SC

2.25

WWWL

-0.06

-0.05

81%

3.0

L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (4th)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	FC Dallas Youth (11th)	5–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Dallas Texans (14th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lonestar ATX White (6th)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 3 at DKSC · Sun Oct 4 at Nido Dallas · Sat Oct 24 at Sting See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	at	DKSC (12th)	2–1	66%
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	at	Nido Dallas (15th)	3–1	81%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sting (13th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	SOLAR SC (7th)	2–2	49%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	San Antonio City SC (16th)	4–0	95%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	SAFC (9th)	3–1	71%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	HTX N (2nd)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	HTX S (8th)	2–1	55%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Houstonians FC (5th)	2–2	29%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED (10th)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	FC Westlake (1st)	1–1	45%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Albion Hurricanes FC

2.25

LWWW

+0.14

-0.05

42%

5.1

W	Sat Oct 10	at	RISE SC (3rd)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Dallas Texans (14th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Dallas Youth (11th)	3–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lonestar ATX White (6th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 3 at Nido Dallas · Sun Oct 4 at DKSC · Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR SC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	at	Nido Dallas (15th)	2–1	66%
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	at	DKSC (12th)	1–1	52%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SOLAR SC (7th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Sting (13th)	1–1	49%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	SAFC (9th)	2–1	55%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	San Antonio City SC (16th)	3–0	86%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Houstonians FC (5th)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	HTX S (8th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	FC Westlake (1st)	1–1	34%
·	Sat May 1	at	HTX N (2nd)	1–1	28%
·	Fri May 7	at	CHALLENGE UNITED (10th)	1–1	41%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Houstonians FC

+13

2.00

WLLWW

-0.11

-0.07

88%

2.6

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Nido Dallas (15th)	8–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	DKSC (12th)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	HTX N (2nd)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Lonestar ATX White (6th)	2–3
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Sting (13th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	SOLAR SC (7th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 3 at CHALLENGE UNITED · Sat Oct 24 vs San Antonio City SC · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	at	CHALLENGE UNITED (10th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	San Antonio City SC (16th)	5–0	96%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Dallas Youth (11th)	3–1	68%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Dallas Texans (14th)	2–0	74%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Westlake (1st)	1–1	50%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (4th)	1–1	50%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	RISE SC (3rd)	2–2	52%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	SAFC (9th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat May 1	vs	HTX S (8th)	2–1	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX White

1.67

WWWDL

+0.53

-0.36

23%

6.2

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Sting (13th)	1–3
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	SOLAR SC (7th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Houstonians FC (5th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	HTX S (8th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (4th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	RISE SC (3rd)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs SAFC · Sat Oct 24 at DKSC · Sun Oct 25 at Nido Dallas See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	SAFC (9th)	2–1	51%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	DKSC (12th)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Nido Dallas (15th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Dallas Texans (14th)	1–0	63%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	FC Dallas Youth (11th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	FC Westlake (1st)	1–1	23%
·	Sat May 1	at	San Antonio City SC (16th)	3–0	80%
·	Sat May 8	at	HTX N (2nd)	1–1	24%
·	Sun May 9	at	CHALLENGE UNITED (10th)	1–1	37%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR SC

1.57

WWWDD

-0.01

23%

6.2

D	Sun Oct 18	at	FC Westlake (1st)	2–2
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar ATX White (6th)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	DKSC (12th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	SAFC (9th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	San Antonio City SC (16th)	5–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	HTX S (8th)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Houstonians FC (5th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Albion Hurricanes FC · Sun Oct 25 vs RISE SC · Sun Nov 8 at Dallas Texans See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (4th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	RISE SC (3rd)	2–2	33%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Dallas Texans (14th)	1–0	62%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	HTX N (2nd)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	CHALLENGE UNITED (10th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Nido Dallas (15th)	3–1	80%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Sting (13th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat May 1	vs	FC Dallas Youth (11th)	3–1	61%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

HTX S

1.50

LWDWD

-0.09

+0.10

8.5

D	Sun Oct 18	at	DKSC (12th)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Nido Dallas (15th)	2–1
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED (10th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	SAFC (9th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	FC Westlake (1st)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Lonestar ATX White (6th)	0–4
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	SOLAR SC (7th)	4–1
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sting (13th)	2–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 at HTX N · Sat Oct 31 at Dallas Texans · Sun Nov 1 at FC Dallas Youth See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	HTX N (2nd)	1–1	22%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Dallas Texans (14th)	1–0	51%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Dallas Youth (11th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	RISE SC (3rd)	1–2	26%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (4th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	San Antonio City SC (16th)	3–0	83%
·	Sat May 1	at	Houstonians FC (5th)	1–2	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SAFC

-1

1.43

WLLDW

-0.00

+0.03

9.0

W	Sun Oct 11	at	FC Dallas Youth (11th)	4–1
D	Sat Oct 10	at	Dallas Texans (14th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	HTX S (8th)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	SOLAR SC (7th)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Sting (13th)	3–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	HTX N (2nd)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED (10th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 3 at Lonestar ATX White · Sat Oct 31 at Albion Hurricanes FC · Sun Nov 1 at RISE SC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	at	Lonestar ATX White (6th)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (4th)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	RISE SC (3rd)	1–3	15%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Nido Dallas (15th)	3–1	69%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	DKSC (12th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Houstonians FC (5th)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	San Antonio City SC (16th)	3–0	84%
·	Sat May 1	vs	FC Westlake (1st)	1–1	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

CHALLENGE UNITED

1.29

LDDWD

-0.63

+0.61

10.6

D	Sun Oct 18	at	FC Dallas Youth (11th)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Dallas Texans (14th)	1–0
D	Sat Oct 10	at	HTX S (8th)	2–2
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Nido Dallas (15th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	DKSC (12th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	San Antonio City SC (16th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	SAFC (9th)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Houstonians FC · Sun Nov 1 at FC Westlake · Sat Nov 14 vs Sting See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	Houstonians FC (5th)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Westlake (1st)	0–1	21%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Sting (13th)	1–1	49%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	SOLAR SC (7th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	RISE SC (3rd)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	HTX N (2nd)	1–1	28%
·	Fri May 7	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (4th)	1–1	33%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Lonestar ATX White (6th)	1–1	39%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth

-1

1.25

LWLWD

-0.21

+0.32

10.9

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED (10th)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	HTX N (2nd)	2–1
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	SAFC (9th)	1–4
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	San Antonio City SC (16th)	5–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Dallas Texans (14th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	RISE SC (3rd)	2–5
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (4th)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Nido Dallas (15th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Houstonians FC · Sun Nov 1 vs HTX S · Sat Nov 14 at FC Westlake See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Houstonians FC (5th)	1–3	17%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	HTX S (8th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	FC Westlake (1st)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Lonestar ATX White (6th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Sting (13th)	1–2	37%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	DKSC (12th)	2–1	51%
·	Sat May 1	at	SOLAR SC (7th)	1–3	23%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

DKSC

-5

1.17

LWLLD

+0.42

-0.19

10.6

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	HTX S (8th)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Houstonians FC (5th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 10	at	SOLAR SC (7th)	1–4
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Sting (13th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	HTX N (2nd)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	CHALLENGE UNITED (10th)	2–1

Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Dallas Texans · Sat Oct 3 vs RISE SC · Sun Oct 4 vs Albion Hurricanes FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 12 (no score yet)	vs	Dallas Texans (14th)	1–0	49%
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	RISE SC (3rd)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (4th)	1–1	25%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lonestar ATX White (6th)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Westlake (1st)	0–1	19%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	San Antonio City SC (16th)	2–0	66%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	SAFC (9th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	FC Dallas Youth (11th)	1–2	29%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Nido Dallas (15th)	2–1	57%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting

-3

1.00

LWLLW

-0.01

+0.09

11.4

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Lonestar ATX White (6th)	3–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Westlake (1st)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	DKSC (12th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	San Antonio City SC (16th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	SAFC (9th)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Houstonians FC (5th)	0–4
D	Sat Sep 12	at	HTX S (8th)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs RISE SC · Sun Oct 25 vs Albion Hurricanes FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Nido Dallas See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	RISE SC (3rd)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (4th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Nido Dallas (15th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	CHALLENGE UNITED (10th)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	HTX N (2nd)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	FC Dallas Youth (11th)	2–1	43%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	SOLAR SC (7th)	1–2	21%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Dallas Texans (14th)	1–0	54%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dallas Texans

-7

0.71

WDDLL

-0.02

+0.13

14.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	HTX N (2nd)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED (10th)	0–1
D	Sun Oct 11	vs	San Antonio City SC (16th)	0–0
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	SAFC (9th)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Dallas Youth (11th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (4th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	RISE SC (3rd)	0–5

Next: Sat Sep 12 at DKSC · Sat Oct 31 vs HTX S · Sun Nov 1 vs Houstonians FC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 12 (no score yet)	at	DKSC (12th)	0–1	23%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	HTX S (8th)	0–1	22%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Houstonians FC (5th)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	SOLAR SC (7th)	0–1	17%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lonestar ATX White (6th)	0–1	15%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	FC Westlake (1st)	0–1	10%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Nido Dallas (15th)	1–1	32%
·	Sat May 1	at	Sting (13th)	0–1	20%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Nido Dallas

-10

0.40

LDDLL

+0.43

-0.05

14.4

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Houstonians FC (5th)	1–8
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	HTX S (8th)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 20	at	CHALLENGE UNITED (10th)	1–1
D	Sat Sep 19	at	HTX N (2nd)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Dallas Youth (11th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Albion Hurricanes FC · Sun Oct 4 vs RISE SC · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Westlake See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (4th)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	vs	RISE SC (3rd)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Westlake (1st)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lonestar ATX White (6th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Sting (13th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	SAFC (9th)	1–3	16%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	San Antonio City SC (16th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	SOLAR SC (7th)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Dallas Texans (14th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat May 1	at	DKSC (12th)	1–2	23%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Antonio City SC

-21

0.14

LLLLD

+0.09

+0.20

15.9

D	Sun Oct 11	at	Dallas Texans (14th)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 10	at	FC Dallas Youth (11th)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Westlake (1st)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Sting (13th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	SOLAR SC (7th)	2–5
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED (10th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	HTX N (2nd)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Houstonians FC · Sat Oct 31 at RISE SC · Sun Nov 1 at Albion Hurricanes FC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Houstonians FC (5th)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	RISE SC (3rd)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (4th)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	DKSC (12th)	0–2	15%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Nido Dallas (15th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	HTX S (8th)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	SAFC (9th)	0–3	6%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Lonestar ATX White (6th)	0–3	8%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.74 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.