Pflugerville FC STXCL Green

ECNL Regional League Boys · STXCL BU13 · 12 teams · Pflugerville FC (all teams)

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4th

5-2-1 record · 8 played

2.13 points per game

+10 goal diff · 14–4

WWWLWlast 5

91% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.2

-0.28 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 8, 12:00 PM

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Pflugerville FC STXCL Green
4th · 2.13 PPG

Sting CC STXCL Stewart
10th · 0.40 PPG

ASP / CC, Field 3 ↗ far trip

74% 16% 10%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.4 for, 0.7 against · 2.39 expected points)

Season so far	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green	Sting CC STXCL Stewart
Position	4th	10th
Record (W-D-L)	5-2-1	0-2-3
Points per game	2.13	0.40
Goals for / game	1.8	1.2
Goals against / game	0.5	3.4
Clean sheets	5	0
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	W L W W W	L L D D L
Biggest win	4–0 vs FC Westlake North STXCL	—
Worst loss	1–2 at Rayados Pflugerville STXCL	0–8 vs LTFC STXCL
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.82	-1.29
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.28	+0.19

Common opponents: TC Premier SC STXCL — we 1–1; they 2–4. FC Westlake North STXCL — we 4–0; they 2–2. BTX Soccer Club STXCL — we 1–0; they 1–2. Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold — we 2–0; they 1–1.

Game plan

They leak goals — be greedy
Sting CC STXCL Stewart concede 3.4/game; worst result 0–8 vs LTFC STXCL.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 74% chance; likely score 2–0.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Away game
Kickoff 12:00 PM at ASP / CC.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
BTX Soccer Club STXCL sit 3rd on 2.17 PPG; we are on 2.13.
A point moves us above BTX Soccer Club STXCL on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sting CC STXCL Stewart game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Pflugerville FC STXCL Green – Sting CC STXCL Stewart) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.22 PPG	3rd▲ up 1	2nd▲ up 2	6th▼ down 2
Win 2.22 PPG	3rd▲ up 1	2nd▲ up 2	6th▼ down 2
Draw 2.00 PPG	4th— holds	3rd▲ up 1	6th▼ down 2
Loss 1.89 PPG	5th▼ down 1	4th— holds	6th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

2% finish 1st

91% top 4

9% below the top 4

3.2 average finish

1st 2%
2nd 20%
3rd 40%
4th 28%
5th 9%
6th 1%
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 2.36 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	LTFC STXCL	2.67 (+0.54)	1st (2.61)	13 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Rayados Pflugerville STXCL	2.25 (+0.12)	2nd (2.11)	8 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection
3	BTX Soccer Club STXCL	2.17 (+0.04)	5th (1.83)	A point next game

How the results connect

19 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Pflugerville FC STXCL Green to Sting CC STXCL Stewart through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

17 favour us

2 favour them

+3.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.30 · 2nd hardest of 12

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Nov 8 12:00 PM	Sting CC STXCL Stewart 10th · 0-2-3 · GD -11	Away far trip ASP / CC	●●○○○ Lean win	74%	2–0	2.39	2.15	Bank it
Sat Nov 14 01:00 PM	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold 6th · 1-0-1 · GD -2	Home Westcreek	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	1–0	2.16	2.15	Swing game
Sun Nov 15 04:00 PM	LTFC STXCL 1st · 5-1-0 · GD +25	Away Bee Creek Sports Complex	●●●●● Very tough	17%	0–1	0.72	2.02	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

LTFC STXCL

+25

2.67

WWDWW

-0.43

-0.16

100%

1.1

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (11th)	7–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	SAFC STXCL (7th)	3–0
D	Sun Oct 4	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	5–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (10th)	8–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Rayados Pflugerville STXCL (2nd)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at BTX Soccer Club STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue · Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	BTX Soccer Club STXCL (3rd)	2–1	73%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (12th)	3–0	92%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	4–0	95%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (6th)	3–0	83%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (4th)	1–0	61%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Rayados Pflugerville STXCL

2.25

LWWW

+0.48

-0.50

86%

3.0

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (4th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	6–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	LTFC STXCL (1st)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at TC Premier SC STXCL · Fri Oct 30 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sat Oct 31 at Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	1–1	39%
·	Fri Oct 30	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (6th)	2–0	65%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (12th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (10th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	SAFC STXCL (7th)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	BTX Soccer Club STXCL (3rd)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (11th)	3–1	86%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

BTX Soccer Club STXCL

2.17

WLWWD

-0.75

+0.66

47%

4.3

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	SAFC STXCL (7th)	4–4
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (11th)	4–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (10th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (4th)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (12th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LTFC STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Westlake Central STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs TC Premier SC STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	LTFC STXCL (1st)	1–2	12%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	1–1	55%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Rayados Pflugerville STXCL (2nd)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (6th)	1–1	58%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pflugerville FC STXCL Green

+10

2.13

WWWLW

-0.28

+0.30

91%

3.2

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	SAFC STXCL (7th)	3–0
L	Sun Oct 18	at	Rayados Pflugerville STXCL (2nd)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	BTX Soccer Club STXCL (3rd)	1–0
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (12th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (11th)	4–0
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	1–1

Next: Sun Nov 8 at Sting CC STXCL Stewart · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 15 at LTFC STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (10th)	2–0	74%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (6th)	1–0	64%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	LTFC STXCL (1st)	0–1	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

TC Premier SC STXCL

2.00

DWLWW

+0.16

-0.37

72%

3.6

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (10th)	4–2
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (6th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	LTFC STXCL (1st)	1–5
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (12th)	3–0
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (4th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Rayados Pflugerville STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at FC Westlake North STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at BTX Soccer Club STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Rayados Pflugerville STXCL (2nd)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (11th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	BTX Soccer Club STXCL (3rd)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	SAFC STXCL (7th)	3–1	71%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	2–1	67%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	1–1	51%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold

-2

1.50

+0.18

-0.07

7.1

W	Fri Oct 23	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	0–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Westlake North STXCL · Fri Oct 30 at Rayados Pflugerville STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at SAFC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (11th)	2–1	61%
·	Fri Oct 30	at	Rayados Pflugerville STXCL (2nd)	0–2	16%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	SAFC STXCL (7th)	1–1	37%
·	Fri Nov 6	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (10th)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	LTFC STXCL (1st)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (4th)	0–1	13%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	BTX Soccer Club STXCL (3rd)	1–1	20%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (12th)	1–1	38%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SAFC STXCL

-6

0.50

DLDL

+0.60

-0.31

8.0

L	Sat Oct 24	at	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (4th)	0–3
D	Sun Oct 18	at	BTX Soccer Club STXCL (3rd)	4–4
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	LTFC STXCL (1st)	0–3
D	Sun Oct 4	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (11th)	2–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Sting CC STXCL Stewart · Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 1 at FC Westlake Central STXCL See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (10th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (6th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Rayados Pflugerville STXCL (2nd)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	1–3	14%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (12th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	2–1	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake Central STXCL

-3

0.40

LDLDL

+0.51

-0.53

8.0

L	Fri Oct 23	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (6th)	0–1
D	Sun Oct 18	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	3–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (4th)	0–1
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	LTFC STXCL (1st)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Rayados Pflugerville STXCL (2nd)	0–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at BTX Soccer Club STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs SAFC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	BTX Soccer Club STXCL (3rd)	1–1	22%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	SAFC STXCL (7th)	1–1	50%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (12th)	1–1	50%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (10th)	1–1	52%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	1–1	27%
·	Fri Nov 20	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (11th)	2–1	56%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold

-8

0.40

LLDLD

+0.09

-0.01

9.9

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	3–3
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Rayados Pflugerville STXCL (2nd)	1–6
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (10th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (4th)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	BTX Soccer Club STXCL (3rd)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 at LTFC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue · Fri Nov 6 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	LTFC STXCL (1st)	0–4	1%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (12th)	1–1	31%
·	Fri Nov 6	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (6th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (11th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	SAFC STXCL (7th)	1–2	28%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting CC STXCL Stewart

-11

0.40

LDDLL

+0.19

-0.06

10.2

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	2–4
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	BTX Soccer Club STXCL (3rd)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–1
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (11th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	LTFC STXCL (1st)	0–8

Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue · Sun Oct 25 at SAFC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs Rayados Pflugerville STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	vs	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (12th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	SAFC STXCL (7th)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Rayados Pflugerville STXCL (2nd)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (6th)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (4th)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	1–1	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake North STXCL

-14

0.40

LDDLL

+0.41

-0.15

10.7

L	Sun Oct 18	at	LTFC STXCL (1st)	0–7
L	Sat Oct 17	at	BTX Soccer Club STXCL (3rd)	1–4
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	SAFC STXCL (7th)	2–2
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (10th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (4th)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue · Sun Oct 25 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sat Oct 31 vs TC Premier SC STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (12th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (6th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Rayados Pflugerville STXCL (2nd)	1–3	6%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–2	27%
·	Fri Nov 20	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	1–2	23%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue

-5

0.33

LLD

+0.62

-0.22

8.8

D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (4th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	BTX Soccer Club STXCL (3rd)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 17 at Sting CC STXCL Stewart · Sat Oct 24 at FC Westlake North STXCL · Sun Oct 25 at LTFC STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (10th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (11th)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	LTFC STXCL (1st)	0–3	2%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Rayados Pflugerville STXCL (2nd)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	1–1	25%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	SAFC STXCL (7th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (6th)	1–1	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.80 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.