LTFC STXCL
ECNL Regional League Boys · STXCL BU13 · 12 teams · LTFC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.8 for, 1.1 against · 2.33 expected points)
| Season so far | LTFC STXCL | BTX Soccer Club STXCL |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-1-0 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per game | 2.67 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / game | 4.7 | 2.2 |
| Goals against / game | 0.5 | 1.2 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W D W W | D W W L W |
| Biggest win | 8–0 at Sting CC STXCL Stewart | 4–1 vs FC Westlake North STXCL |
| Worst loss | — | 0–1 vs Pflugerville FC STXCL Green |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.61 | +0.42 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.35 | -0.72 |
Common opponents: Sting CC STXCL Stewart — we 8–0; they 2–1. SAFC STXCL — we 3–0; they 4–4. FC Westlake North STXCL — we 7–0; they 4–1.
Game plan
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 73% chance; likely score 2–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Away game
Kickoff 02:00 PM at ASP / CC.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the BTX Soccer Club STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LTFC STXCL – BTX Soccer Club STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.71 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 2.71 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.43 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 2.29 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 3rd▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 93%
- 2nd 6%
- 3rd 1%
- 4th <1%
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
16 chains · 11 teams
Paths of results that link LTFC STXCL to BTX Soccer Club STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.26 · 9th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 02:00 PM |
BTX Soccer Club STXCL 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +6 |
Away ASP / CC |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
2–1 | 2.33 | 2.62 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 04:00 PM |
Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue 11th · 0-1-2 · GD -5 |
Home Bee Creek Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 92% |
3–0 | 2.82 | 2.64 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 02:00 PM |
Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold 8th · 0-2-3 · GD -8 |
Home Bee Creek Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
4–0 | 2.89 | 2.67 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM |
Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold 12th · 0-0-1 · GD -3 |
Away Town & Country |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
3–0 | 2.74 | 2.68 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 15 04:00 PM |
Pflugerville FC STXCL Green 4th · 4-2-1 · GD +7 |
Home Bee Creek Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–0 | 2.19 | 2.64 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | LTFC STXCL | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 3 | +25 | 16 | 2.67 | WWDWW | -0.35 | -0.26 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at BTX Soccer Club STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue · Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Rayados Pflugerville STXCL | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 9 | 2.25 | LWWW | +0.47 | -0.51 | 87% | 2.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at TC Premier SC STXCL · Fri Oct 30 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sat Oct 31 at Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | BTX Soccer Club STXCL | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 13 | 2.17 | WLWWD | -0.72 | +0.63 | 57% | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LTFC STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Westlake Central STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs TC Premier SC STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Pflugerville FC STXCL Green | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 14 | 2.00 | DWWWL | -0.19 | +0.06 | 81% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SAFC STXCL · Sun Nov 8 at Sting CC STXCL Stewart · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | TC Premier SC STXCL | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 10 | 2.00 | DWLWW | +0.06 | -0.30 | 67% | 3.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Rayados Pflugerville STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at FC Westlake North STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at BTX Soccer Club STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | SAFC STXCL | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 2 | 0.67 | DLD | +0.54 | -0.22 | 4% | 7.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pflugerville FC STXCL Green · Sun Oct 25 vs Sting CC STXCL Stewart · Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | FC Westlake Central STXCL | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2 | 0.50 | LDLD | +0.72 | -0.51 | 3% | 7.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Oct 23 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sun Oct 25 at BTX Soccer Club STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs SAFC STXCL See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 2 | 0.40 | LLDLD | +0.09 | -0.01 | 0% | 9.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at LTFC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue · Fri Nov 6 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Sting CC STXCL Stewart | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17 | -11 | 2 | 0.40 | LDDLL | +0.20 | -0.07 | 0% | 10.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue · Sun Oct 25 at SAFC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs Rayados Pflugerville STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | FC Westlake North STXCL | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 2 | 0.40 | LDDLL | +0.45 | -0.18 | 0% | 10.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue · Sun Oct 25 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sat Oct 31 vs TC Premier SC STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1 | 0.33 | LLD | +0.55 | -0.20 | 0% | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Sting CC STXCL Stewart · Sat Oct 24 at FC Westlake North STXCL · Sun Oct 25 at LTFC STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 0.00 | L | +0.59 | -0.05 | 1% | 8.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Oct 23 vs FC Westlake Central STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Westlake North STXCL · Fri Oct 30 at Rayados Pflugerville STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.87 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.