Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold

ECNL Regional League Boys · STXCL BU13 · 12 teams · Lonestar ATX (all teams)

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6th

1-0-1 record · 2 played

1.50 points per game

-2 goal diff · 1–3

LWlast 2

4% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.2

+0.17 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:00 PM

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Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold
6th · 1.50 PPG

FC Westlake North STXCL
11th · 0.40 PPG

Westcreek , Field 4 ↗

61% 20% 19%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.2 for, 1.2 against · 2.03 expected points)

Season so far	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold	FC Westlake North STXCL
Position	6th	11th
Record (W-D-L)	1-0-1	0-2-3
Points per game	1.50	0.40
Goals for / game	0.5	1.0
Goals against / game	1.5	3.8
Clean sheets	1	0
Held scoreless	1	2
Form (recent first)	W L	L L D D L
Biggest win	1–0 vs FC Westlake Central STXCL	—
Worst loss	0–3 vs TC Premier SC STXCL	0–7 at LTFC STXCL
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.38	-1.53
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.17	+0.44

Game plan

They leak goals — be greedy
FC Westlake North STXCL concede 3.8/game; worst result 0–7 at LTFC STXCL.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 vs TC Premier SC STXCL.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 61% / draw 20% / loss 19%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
What a win does
TC Premier SC STXCL sit 5th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 1.50.
A win moves us above TC Premier SC STXCL on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Westlake North STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold – FC Westlake North STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.00 PPG	6th— holds	4th▲ up 2	6th— holds
Win 2.00 PPG	6th— holds	4th▲ up 2	6th— holds
Draw 1.33 PPG	6th— holds	6th— holds	8th▼ down 2
Loss 1.00 PPG	6th— holds	7th▼ down 1	9th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

4% top 4

96% below the top 4

7.2 average finish

1st
2nd <1%
3rd 1%
4th 3%
5th 6%
6th 26%
7th 26%
8th 17%
9th 10%
10th 6%
11th 3%
12th 2%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.73 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	LTFC STXCL	2.67 (+1.17)	1st (2.63)	27 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
2	Rayados Pflugerville STXCL	2.25 (+0.75)	2nd (2.09)	22 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
3	BTX Soccer Club STXCL	2.17 (+0.67)	5th (1.84)	21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
4	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green	2.00 (+0.50)	4th (1.91)	Win next game
5	TC Premier SC STXCL	2.00 (+0.50)	3rd (1.93)	Win next game

How the results connect

5 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold to FC Westlake North STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us

1 even

1 favour them

+2.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.05 · 5th hardest of 12

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 03:00 PM	FC Westlake North STXCL 11th · 0-2-3 · GD -14	Home Westcreek	●●○○○ Lean win	61%	2–1	2.03	1.68	Swing game
Fri Oct 30 08:00 PM	Rayados Pflugerville STXCL 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +4	Away Town & Country	●●●●● Very tough	16%	0–2	0.67	1.42	Upside
Sat Oct 31 09:00 AM	SAFC STXCL 7th · 0-2-1 · GD -3	Away Westcreek	●●●●○ Tough	31%	1–1	1.15	1.37	Upside
Fri Nov 6 06:30 PM	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold 9th · 0-2-3 · GD -8	Away Town & Country	●●●○○ Toss-up	43%	1–1	1.53	1.40	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 12:00 PM	Sting CC STXCL Stewart 10th · 0-2-3 · GD -11	Away far trip ASP / CC	●●●○○ Toss-up	48%	1–1	1.66	1.43	Swing game
Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM	LTFC STXCL 1st · 5-1-0 · GD +25	Home Town & Country	●●●●● Very tough	6%	0–3	0.28	1.29	Upside
Sat Nov 14 01:00 PM	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green 4th · 4-2-1 · GD +7	Away Westcreek	●●●●● Very tough	15%	0–1	0.71	1.22	Upside
Sun Nov 15 04:00 PM	BTX Soccer Club STXCL 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +6	Away far trip ASP / CC	●●●●● Very tough	20%	1–1	0.81	1.18	Upside
Sat Nov 21 08:00 AM	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue 12th · 0-1-2 · GD -5	Away far trip NEMP	●●●●○ Tough	38%	1–1	1.43	1.21	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

LTFC STXCL

+25

2.67

WWDWW

-0.37

-0.20

100%

1.1

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (11th)	7–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	SAFC STXCL (7th)	3–0
D	Sun Oct 4	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	5–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (10th)	8–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Rayados Pflugerville STXCL (2nd)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at BTX Soccer Club STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue · Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	BTX Soccer Club STXCL (3rd)	2–1	73%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (12th)	3–0	92%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	4–0	96%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (6th)	3–0	84%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (4th)	2–0	67%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Rayados Pflugerville STXCL

2.25

LWWW

+0.42

-0.46

86%

3.0

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (4th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	6–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	LTFC STXCL (1st)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at TC Premier SC STXCL · Fri Oct 30 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sat Oct 31 at Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	1–1	38%
·	Fri Oct 30	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (6th)	2–0	65%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (12th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (10th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	SAFC STXCL (7th)	2–1	58%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	BTX Soccer Club STXCL (3rd)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (11th)	3–1	85%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

BTX Soccer Club STXCL

2.17

WLWWD

-0.72

+0.66

56%

4.1

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	SAFC STXCL (7th)	4–4
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (11th)	4–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (10th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (4th)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (12th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LTFC STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Westlake Central STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs TC Premier SC STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	LTFC STXCL (1st)	1–2	12%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	1–1	56%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Rayados Pflugerville STXCL (2nd)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (6th)	1–1	58%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pflugerville FC STXCL Green

2.00

DWWWL

-0.22

+0.14

80%

3.6

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Rayados Pflugerville STXCL (2nd)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	BTX Soccer Club STXCL (3rd)	1–0
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (12th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (11th)	4–0
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SAFC STXCL · Sun Nov 8 at Sting CC STXCL Stewart · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	SAFC STXCL (7th)	2–0	64%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (10th)	2–0	70%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (6th)	1–0	60%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	LTFC STXCL (1st)	0–2	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

TC Premier SC STXCL

2.00

DWLWW

+0.12

-0.33

69%

3.7

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (10th)	4–2
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (6th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	LTFC STXCL (1st)	1–5
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (12th)	3–0
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (4th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Rayados Pflugerville STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at FC Westlake North STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at BTX Soccer Club STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Rayados Pflugerville STXCL (2nd)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (11th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	BTX Soccer Club STXCL (3rd)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	SAFC STXCL (7th)	3–1	66%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	2–1	67%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	1–1	51%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold

-2

1.50

+0.17

-0.05

7.2

W	Fri Oct 23	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	0–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Westlake North STXCL · Fri Oct 30 at Rayados Pflugerville STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at SAFC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (11th)	2–1	61%
·	Fri Oct 30	at	Rayados Pflugerville STXCL (2nd)	0–2	16%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	SAFC STXCL (7th)	1–1	31%
·	Fri Nov 6	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (10th)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	LTFC STXCL (1st)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (4th)	0–1	15%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	BTX Soccer Club STXCL (3rd)	1–1	20%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (12th)	1–1	38%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SAFC STXCL

-3

0.67

DLD

+0.54

-0.20

7.2

D	Sun Oct 18	at	BTX Soccer Club STXCL (3rd)	4–4
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	LTFC STXCL (1st)	0–3
D	Sun Oct 4	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (11th)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pflugerville FC STXCL Green · Sun Oct 25 vs Sting CC STXCL Stewart · Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (4th)	0–2	16%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (10th)	3–1	66%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (6th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Rayados Pflugerville STXCL (2nd)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	1–3	19%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (12th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	2–1	60%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake Central STXCL

-3

0.40

LDLDL

+0.47

-0.47

8.2

L	Fri Oct 23	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (6th)	0–1
D	Sun Oct 18	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	3–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (4th)	0–1
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	LTFC STXCL (1st)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Rayados Pflugerville STXCL (2nd)	0–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at BTX Soccer Club STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs SAFC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	BTX Soccer Club STXCL (3rd)	1–1	22%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	SAFC STXCL (7th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (12th)	1–1	50%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (10th)	1–1	52%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	1–1	27%
·	Fri Nov 20	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (11th)	2–1	56%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold

-8

0.40

LLDLD

+0.05

+0.04

10.0

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	3–3
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Rayados Pflugerville STXCL (2nd)	1–6
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (10th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (4th)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	BTX Soccer Club STXCL (3rd)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 at LTFC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue · Fri Nov 6 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	LTFC STXCL (1st)	0–4	1%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (12th)	1–1	31%
·	Fri Nov 6	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (6th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (11th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	SAFC STXCL (7th)	1–2	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting CC STXCL Stewart

-11

0.40

LDDLL

+0.19

-0.05

10.3

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	2–4
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	BTX Soccer Club STXCL (3rd)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–1
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (11th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	LTFC STXCL (1st)	0–8

Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue · Sun Oct 25 at SAFC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs Rayados Pflugerville STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	vs	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (12th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	SAFC STXCL (7th)	1–3	18%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Rayados Pflugerville STXCL (2nd)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (6th)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (4th)	0–2	12%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	1–1	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake North STXCL

-14

0.40

LDDLL

+0.44

-0.16

10.7

L	Sun Oct 18	at	LTFC STXCL (1st)	0–7
L	Sat Oct 17	at	BTX Soccer Club STXCL (3rd)	1–4
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	SAFC STXCL (7th)	2–2
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (10th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (4th)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue · Sun Oct 25 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sat Oct 31 vs TC Premier SC STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (12th)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (6th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Rayados Pflugerville STXCL (2nd)	1–3	6%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–2	27%
·	Fri Nov 20	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	1–2	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue

-5

0.33

LLD

+0.55

-0.18

9.0

D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (4th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	BTX Soccer Club STXCL (3rd)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 17 at Sting CC STXCL Stewart · Sat Oct 24 at FC Westlake North STXCL · Sun Oct 25 at LTFC STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (10th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (11th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	LTFC STXCL (1st)	0–3	2%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Rayados Pflugerville STXCL (2nd)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	1–1	25%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	SAFC STXCL (7th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (6th)	1–1	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.80 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.