CESA Triumph Surge

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Mesa Soccer Complex, Field 3 ↗

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.4 for, 0.6 against · 2.51 expected points)

Common opponents: Concorde Fire Premier — we 1–1; they 2–1. Concorde Fire Platinum — we 4–1; they 1–1. GSA — we 1–1, 2–0; they 1–4. United Futbol Academy — we 0–1, 1–0; they 2–4. South Carolina United — we 3–0; they 1–1, 2–1. NTH NASA — we 0–1; they 0–5.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  South Carolina Surf concede 2.2/game; worst result 0–5 vs NTH NASA.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 vs United Futbol Academy, 0–1 at NTH NASA.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Expected win — the trap is complacency
  Model gives a 79% chance; likely score 2–0.

  Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

• What a win does
  CESA Triumph Summit sit 2nd on 2.09 PPG; we are on 2.00.

  A point moves us above CESA Triumph Summit on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the South Carolina Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (CESA Triumph Surge – South Carolina Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

1. 1st 17%
2. 2nd 40%
3. 3rd 26%
4. 4th 15%
5. 5th 2%
6. 6th <1%
7. 7th
8. 8th
9. 9th
10. 10th
11. 11th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).