CESA Triumph Summit
ECNL Regional League Boys · Southeast BU16 · 11 teams · Carolina Elite Soccer Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 01:00 PM
Mesa Soccer Complex, Field 3 ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.1 for, 1.0 against · 2.48 expected points)
| Season so far | CESA Triumph Summit | South Carolina Surf |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 7-2-2 | 2-3-3 |
| Points per game | 2.09 | 1.13 |
| Goals for / game | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.2 | 2.3 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W D D | W D W D L |
| Biggest win | 4–0 at Atlanta Fire United | 2–1 at South Carolina United |
| Worst loss | 1–4 vs United Futbol Academy | 0–5 vs NTH NASA |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.78 | -0.84 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.05 | -0.31 |
Common opponents: Concorde Fire Platinum — we 1–0; they 1–1. Concorde Fire Premier — we 3–1; they 2–1. United Futbol Academy — we 1–4, 6–2; they 2–4. GSA — we 3–2, 2–1; they 1–4. South Carolina United — we 2–0; they 1–1, 2–1. NTH NASA — we 1–1; they 0–5. Atlanta Fire United — we 4–0; they 1–1.
Game plan
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They leak goals — be greedy
South Carolina Surf concede 2.2/game; worst result 0–5 vs NTH NASA.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 vs CESA Triumph Surge, 0–0 vs Charlotte SA Gold.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 79% chance; likely score 3–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the South Carolina Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (CESA Triumph Summit – South Carolina Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.17 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.17 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.92 PPG |
4th▼ down 2 | 3rd▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–0 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 11%
- 2nd 27%
- 3rd 34%
- 4th 23%
- 5th 4%
- 6th <1%
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NTH NASA | 2.40 (+0.31) | 1st (2.27) | 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
How the results connect
78 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link CESA Triumph Summit to South Carolina Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
17 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.25 · 9th hardest of 11
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 01:00 PM |
South Carolina Surf 7th · 2-3-3 · GD -8 |
Home Mesa Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
3–0 | 2.48 | 2.12 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM |
South Carolina United 11th · 1-2-7 · GD -17 |
Away far trip
Southeastern Freight Lines Complex · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
2–0 | 2.50 | 2.15 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 01:00 PM |
Charlotte SA Gold 6th · 3-4-2 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
Harris Teeter Fields at Palisades |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.59 | 2.11 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 01:00 PM |
Atlanta Fire United 9th · 2-1-7 · GD -18 |
Home Mesa Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
3–0 | 2.66 | 2.15 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 15 11:00 AM |
NTH NASA 1st · 7-3-0 · GD +17 |
Home Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–1 | 1.07 | 2.08 | Upside |
| Fri Dec 11 05:15 PM |
CESA Triumph Surge 3rd · 6-2-2 · GD +11 |
Away Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
0–1 | 0.98 | 2.02 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 19 01:00 PM |
Concorde Fire Premier 5th · 4-1-4 · GD +4 |
Home Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–1 | 1.84 | 2.01 | Swing game |
| Sun Dec 20 11:00 AM |
Concorde Fire Platinum 10th · 1-2-6 · GD -7 |
Home Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
2–0 | 2.31 | 2.02 | Bank it |
| Sun Jan 10 02:00 PM |
South Carolina Surf 7th · 2-3-3 · GD -8 |
Away far trip
Shea Family Fields |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
2–1 | 2.28 | 2.04 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | NTH NASA | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 22 | 5 | +17 | 24 | 2.40 | DWDWW | -0.12 | -0.13 | 100% | 1.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at GSA · Sun Oct 25 at United Futbol Academy · Sat Nov 7 at Concorde Fire Platinum See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | CESA Triumph Summit | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 13 | +10 | 23 | 2.09 | DDWWW | +0.05 | -0.25 | 96% | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs South Carolina Surf · Sat Nov 7 at South Carolina United · Sun Nov 8 at Charlotte SA Gold See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | CESA Triumph Surge | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 20 | 2.00 | WWLWW | +0.20 | -0.36 | 98% | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Atlanta Fire United · Sat Oct 31 vs South Carolina Surf · Sat Nov 7 at Charlotte SA Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | United Futbol Academy | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 15 | +7 | 20 | 2.00 | WDWLL | +0.14 | -0.25 | 87% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Atlanta Fire United · Sun Oct 25 vs NTH NASA · Sun Nov 1 at GSA See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Concorde Fire Premier | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 13 | 1.44 | WLWWL | -0.20 | +0.06 | 10% | 5.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Carolina United · Sun Oct 25 vs Charlotte SA Gold · Sat Nov 7 vs Atlanta Fire United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Charlotte SA Gold | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 13 | 1.44 | LDDLW | +0.04 | -0.10 | 9% | 5.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Oct 25 at Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Nov 1 vs South Carolina United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | South Carolina Surf | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 9 | 1.13 | LDWDW | -0.31 | +0.33 | 0% | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at CESA Triumph Surge · Sun Nov 1 at CESA Triumph Summit · Sat Nov 7 vs GSA See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | GSA | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 8 | 0.80 | LDWLL | +0.19 | -0.20 | 0% | 7.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs NTH NASA · Sun Oct 25 vs Atlanta Fire United · Sun Nov 1 vs United Futbol Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Atlanta Fire United | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 27 | -18 | 7 | 0.70 | LDWLL | +0.15 | +0.09 | 0% | 9.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs CESA Triumph Surge · Sat Oct 24 at United Futbol Academy · Sun Oct 25 at GSA See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 5 | 0.56 | LLLLD | -0.00 | +0.06 | 0% | 8.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Charlotte SA Gold · Sun Oct 25 vs South Carolina United · Sat Nov 7 vs NTH NASA See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | South Carolina United | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 5 | 0.50 | DWDLL | -0.11 | +0.32 | 0% | 10.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Oct 25 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Nov 1 at Charlotte SA Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.47 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.