Colorado Storm North
ECNL Regional League Boys · Mountain BU14 · 8 teams · Colorado Storm (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:00 AM
Stargate Charter School, Field 2 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.7 for, 1.1 against · 1.83 expected points)
| Season so far | Colorado Storm North | Colorado Rush |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-0-2 | 2-1-2 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals for / game | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W L W W | W D W L L |
| Biggest win | 3–0 at Pride SC | 4–1 at Real Colorado Athletico |
| Worst loss | 1–3 vs Colorado Storm South | 1–4 at Real Colorado North National |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.43 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.09 | -0.49 |
Common opponents: Real Colorado North National — we 0–1; they 1–4. Colorado EDGE — we 2–0; they 3–1. Arsenal Colorado — we 1–0; they 1–2. Real Colorado Athletico — we 1–0; they 4–1. Pride SC — we 3–0; they 1–1.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Real Colorado North National.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 53% / draw 24% / loss 23%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
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What a win does
Real Colorado North National sit 3rd on 2.14 PPG; we are on 2.00.A point moves us above Real Colorado North National on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Colorado Rush game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Colorado Storm North – Colorado Rush) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.86 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Win 2.14 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.86 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Loss 1.71 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 9%
- 3rd 38%
- 4th 46%
- 5th 7%
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.71 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colorado Storm South | 2.67 (+0.67) | 1st (2.51) | 45 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection |
| 2 | Arsenal Colorado | 2.29 (+0.29) | 2nd (2.15) | 37 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection |
| 3 | Real Colorado North National | 2.14 (+0.14) | 3rd (1.82) | A point next game |
How the results connect
30 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Colorado Storm North to Colorado Rush through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.04 · 5th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 09:00 AM |
Colorado Rush 5th · 2-1-2 · GD +1 |
Home Stargate Charter School |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
1–1 | 1.83 | 1.98 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 6 09:00 AM |
Pride SC 7th · 1-1-5 · GD -12 |
Home Stargate Charter School |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–0 | 2.35 | 2.02 | Bank it |
| Sun Feb 7 10:00 AM |
Colorado EDGE 6th · 2-0-5 · GD -13 |
Away far trip
Long Lake Regional Park · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
1–0 | 2.20 | 2.04 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 27 01:00 PM |
Real Colorado North National 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +5 |
Away far trip
Dry Creek Community Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.36 | 1.97 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Colorado Rush 5th · 2-1-2 · GD +1 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.59 | 1.94 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 7 02:00 PM |
Colorado Storm South 1st · 5-1-0 · GD +18 |
Home Stargate Charter School |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
0–1 | 0.79 | 1.84 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 09:00 AM |
Arsenal Colorado 2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +11 |
Away far trip
Fort Collins Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
0–1 | 0.91 | 1.77 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 27 11:00 AM |
Real Colorado Athletico 8th · 0-0-7 · GD -14 |
Home Stargate Charter School |
●○○○○ Favorable | 75% |
2–0 | 2.43 | 1.82 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
Pride SC 7th · 1-1-5 · GD -12 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
1–0 | 2.17 | 1.84 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 02:00 PM |
Colorado Storm South 1st · 5-1-0 · GD +18 |
Away far trip
Gates South Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
0–1 | 0.62 | 1.77 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 05:00 PM |
Colorado EDGE 6th · 2-0-5 · GD -13 |
Home Trail Winds · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
2–0 | 2.38 | 1.80 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 24 01:00 PM |
Real Colorado North National 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +5 |
Home Stargate Charter School |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.60 | 1.79 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 11:00 AM |
Colorado Rush 5th · 2-1-2 · GD +1 |
Home Stargate Charter School |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
1–1 | 1.83 | 1.79 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 01:00 PM |
Arsenal Colorado 2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +11 |
Home Stargate Charter School |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
0–1 | 1.09 | 1.76 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 11:15 AM |
Real Colorado Athletico 8th · 0-0-7 · GD -14 |
Away far trip
Real Colorado Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
1–0 | 2.26 | 1.78 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Colorado Storm South | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 2 | +18 | 16 | 2.67 | WDWWW | -0.25 | -0.23 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 vs Colorado Rush · Sat Feb 20 at Real Colorado Athletico · Sat Feb 27 at Pride SC See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Arsenal Colorado | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 16 | 2.29 | LWWWW | -0.16 | -0.13 | 100% | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Feb 20 at Pride SC · Sat Feb 27 at Colorado Rush · Sun Feb 28 vs Real Colorado Athletico See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Real Colorado North National | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 15 | 2.14 | WWLWL | -0.03 | -0.04 | 95% | 3.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Feb 6 at Colorado EDGE · Sat Feb 20 vs Colorado Rush · Sat Feb 27 vs Colorado Storm North See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Colorado Storm North | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 12 | 2.00 | WWLWW | -0.09 | -0.04 | 93% | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Colorado Rush · Sat Feb 6 vs Pride SC · Sun Feb 7 at Colorado EDGE See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Colorado Rush | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 7 | 1.40 | LLWDW | -0.49 | +0.16 | 12% | 4.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 at Colorado Storm South · Sun Oct 25 at Colorado Storm North · Sun Jan 31 at Colorado EDGE See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Colorado EDGE | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 18 | -13 | 6 | 0.86 | LLLLW | +0.17 | +0.19 | 0% | 6.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Jan 31 vs Colorado Rush · Sat Feb 6 vs Real Colorado North National · Sun Feb 7 vs Colorado Storm North See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Pride SC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 4 | 0.57 | WLDLL | +0.21 | +0.08 | 0% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Feb 6 at Colorado Storm North · Sat Feb 13 at Real Colorado Athletico · Sat Feb 20 vs Arsenal Colorado See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Real Colorado Athletico | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 18 | -14 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.17 | +0.12 | 0% | 7.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Feb 13 vs Pride SC · Sat Feb 20 vs Colorado Storm South · Sat Feb 27 vs Colorado EDGE See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.56 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.