Alabama FC

ECNL Regional League Boys · Mid-America BU15 · 10 teams · Alabama FC (all teams)

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3rd

6-2-1 record · 9 played

2.22 points per game

+24 goal diff · 29–5

WWDWLlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.1

-0.01 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 11:00 AM

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Alabama FC
3rd · 2.22 PPG

Lobos Rush
5th · 1.78 PPG

Progress Park, Field 2 ↗ far trip

71% 17% 12%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.5 for, 0.9 against · 2.31 expected points)

Season so far	Alabama FC	Lobos Rush
Position	3rd	5th
Record (W-D-L)	6-2-1	5-1-3
Points per game	2.22	1.78
Goals for / game	3.2	1.7
Goals against / game	0.6	1.4
Clean sheets	5	2
Held scoreless	0	3
Form (recent first)	L W D W W	W W L L W
Biggest win	8–0 at FC Alliance TN	3–0 vs Mississippi Rush United
Worst loss	1–2 vs Alabama FC Huntsville	0–5 at Alabama FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.92	+0.09
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.01	-0.23

Already played this season: Sun Sep 20 5–0 vs Lobos Rush (W)

Common opponents: Tennessee SC Murfreesboro — we 6–1; they 5–2. Tennessee SC — we 1–1; they 0–1. Mississippi Rush United — we 1–0; they 3–0. Alabama FC Huntsville — we 1–2; they 0–2.

Game plan

Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 71% chance; likely score 2–0.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Progress Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Lobos Rush game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Alabama FC – Lobos Rush) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.30 PPG	3rd— holds	2nd▲ up 1	3rd— holds
Win 2.30 PPG	3rd— holds	2nd▲ up 1	3rd— holds
Draw 2.10 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Loss 2.00 PPG	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1	4th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

25% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

2.1 average finish

1st 25%
2nd 41%
3rd 32%
4th 2%
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.61 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Tennessee SC	2.60 (+0.38)	1st (2.45)	27 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
2	North Georgia Soccer Academy	2.38 (+0.16)	3rd (2.31)	23 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection

How the results connect

71 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Alabama FC to Lobos Rush through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

54 favour us

7 even

10 favour them

+2.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.41 · 9th hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM	Lobos Rush 5th · 5-1-3 · GD +2	Away far trip Progress Park	●●○○○ Lean win	71%	2–0	2.31	2.23	Bank it
Sun Nov 1 09:00 AM	Germantown Legends 10th · 1-0-7 · GD -18	Away far trip Mike Rose Soccer Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	94%	4–0	2.86	2.29	Bank it
Sat Nov 7 01:00 PM	Mississippi Rush United 8th · 3-0-8 · GD -10	Away far trip Freedom Ridge Park	●○○○○ Favorable	81%	2–0	2.57	2.31	Bank it
Sun Nov 8 01:00 PM	Mississippi Surf 6th · 4-2-7 · GD -5	Away far trip BankPlus Sportsplex at Ballard Park	●○○○○ Favorable	80%	2–0	2.53	2.33	Bank it
Sat Nov 14 01:00 PM	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro 7th · 3-0-7 · GD -20	Home Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF)	●○○○○ Favorable	96%	5–0	2.91	2.37	Bank it
Sun Nov 15 09:00 AM	Tennessee SC 1st · 8-2-0 · GD +25	Home Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF)	●●●●○ Tough	31%	0–1	1.23	2.29	Upside
Sat Nov 21 02:00 PM	Alabama FC Huntsville 4th · 6-1-3 · GD +8	Away far trip Merrimack Sports Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	51%	1–0	1.80	2.26	Swing game
Sat Jan 16 01:00 PM	Germantown Legends 10th · 1-0-7 · GD -18	Home Veterans Park	●○○○○ Favorable	96%	4–0	2.92	2.30	Bank it
Sat May 15 03:00 PM	Mississippi Surf 6th · 4-2-7 · GD -5	Home Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF)	●○○○○ Favorable	86%	3–0	2.68	2.32	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Tennessee SC

+25

2.60

WWWDD

-0.34

+0.06

100%

1.6

D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Alabama FC (3rd)	1–1
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Mississippi Surf (6th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (7th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Mississippi Surf (6th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	1–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Lobos Rush (5th)	1–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Germantown Legends (10th)	6–0
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (7th)	8–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Oct 25 at North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Alliance TN See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Alliance TN (9th)	3–0	92%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	North Georgia Soccer Academy (2nd)	1–0	53%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	FC Alliance TN (9th)	3–0	95%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	North Georgia Soccer Academy (2nd)	1–0	61%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	1–0	51%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Alabama FC (3rd)	1–0	39%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Lobos Rush (5th)	1–0	71%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Germantown Legends (10th)	3–0	92%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

North Georgia Soccer Academy

+13

2.38

WWWWW

+0.30

-0.58

100%

2.3

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Mississippi Surf (6th)	4–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	7–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Mississippi Surf (6th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Alabama FC (3rd)	0–3
D	Sun Aug 23	at	Alabama FC (3rd)	1–1
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 3 at FC Alliance TN · Sat Oct 10 at Lobos Rush · Sun Oct 11 at Germantown Legends See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	at	FC Alliance TN (9th)	3–0	89%
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	Lobos Rush (5th)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Oct 11 (no score yet)	at	Germantown Legends (10th)	3–0	89%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (7th)	4–0	93%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–1	21%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (7th)	4–1	88%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–1	16%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lobos Rush (5th)	2–1	68%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Germantown Legends (10th)	4–0	93%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	FC Alliance TN (9th)	4–0	93%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Alabama FC

+24

2.22

WWDWL

-0.01

-0.41

100%

2.1

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	1–2
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	1–0
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Tennessee SC (1st)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (7th)	6–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lobos Rush (5th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	FC Alliance TN (9th)	8–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	North Georgia Soccer Academy (2nd)	3–0
D	Sun Aug 23	vs	North Georgia Soccer Academy (2nd)	1–1
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	FC Alliance TN (9th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Lobos Rush · Sun Nov 1 at Germantown Legends · Sat Nov 7 at Mississippi Rush United See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Lobos Rush (5th)	2–0	71%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Germantown Legends (10th)	4–0	94%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	2–0	81%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Mississippi Surf (6th)	2–0	80%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (7th)	5–0	96%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–1	31%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	1–0	51%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Germantown Legends (10th)	4–0	96%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Mississippi Surf (6th)	3–0	86%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Alabama FC Huntsville

1.90

WDLWW

+0.00

-0.12

86%

4.1

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Alabama FC (3rd)	2–1
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Mississippi Surf (6th)	2–0
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (7th)	0–1
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Germantown Legends (10th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lobos Rush (5th)	2–0
L	Sun Sep 13	at	North Georgia Soccer Academy (2nd)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Alliance TN (9th)	1–0
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	FC Alliance TN (9th)	5–2
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	North Georgia Soccer Academy (2nd)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Mississippi Rush United · Sat Oct 31 at Germantown Legends · Sun Nov 1 at Lobos Rush See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	1–0	64%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Germantown Legends (10th)	2–0	75%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Lobos Rush (5th)	1–0	45%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Mississippi Surf (6th)	1–0	54%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	1–0	57%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–1	16%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (7th)	2–0	80%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Alabama FC (3rd)	0–1	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lobos Rush

1.78

WLLWW

-0.23

+0.18

14%

4.9

W	Wed Oct 21	at	Germantown Legends (10th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Mississippi Surf (6th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Alabama FC (3rd)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	0–2
W	Tue Sep 15	vs	Germantown Legends (10th)	2–1
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–1
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (7th)	5–2
D	Sun Aug 23	vs	Mississippi Surf (6th)	1–1
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 10 vs North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sun Oct 11 vs FC Alliance TN · Sat Oct 31 vs Alabama FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	North Georgia Soccer Academy (2nd)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Oct 11 (no score yet)	vs	FC Alliance TN (9th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Alabama FC (3rd)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	0–1	27%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	North Georgia Soccer Academy (2nd)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	FC Alliance TN (9th)	2–0	69%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–1	9%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (7th)	3–1	74%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	1–1	49%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mississippi Surf

-5

1.08

LWLLD

-0.18

+0.65

6.4

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Alliance TN (9th)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	North Georgia Soccer Academy (2nd)	2–4
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	0–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Germantown Legends (10th)	3–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Lobos Rush (5th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (7th)	4–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	FC Alliance TN (9th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	North Georgia Soccer Academy (2nd)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (7th)	3–5
D	Sun Aug 23	at	Lobos Rush (5th)	1–1
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Germantown Legends (10th)	4–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Alabama FC Huntsville · Sun Nov 8 vs Alabama FC · Sat Nov 21 vs Mississippi Rush United See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	0–1	20%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Alabama FC (3rd)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat May 15	at	Alabama FC (3rd)	0–3	5%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tennessee SC Murfreesboro

-20

0.90

LWLLW

+0.26

+0.06

7.7

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Alabama FC (3rd)	1–6
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Mississippi Surf (6th)	0–4
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Mississippi Surf (6th)	5–3
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Germantown Legends (10th)	2–3
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Lobos Rush (5th)	2–5
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–8

Next: Sat Oct 24 at North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sun Oct 25 at FC Alliance TN · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Alliance TN See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	North Georgia Soccer Academy (2nd)	0–4	3%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC Alliance TN (9th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Alliance TN (9th)	2–1	54%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	North Georgia Soccer Academy (2nd)	1–4	5%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Alabama FC (3rd)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Germantown Legends (10th)	2–1	45%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Lobos Rush (5th)	1–3	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mississippi Rush United

-10

0.82

LLLWL

+0.07

+0.12

7.2

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	North Georgia Soccer Academy (2nd)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Alliance TN (9th)	5–0
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Alabama FC (3rd)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (7th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	North Georgia Soccer Academy (2nd)	1–7
L	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Alliance TN (9th)	1–3
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (7th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–1
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Germantown Legends (10th)	1–0
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Lobos Rush (5th)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Alabama FC Huntsville · Sun Oct 25 vs Germantown Legends · Sat Nov 7 vs Alabama FC See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	0–1	12%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Germantown Legends (10th)	1–0	59%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Alabama FC (3rd)	0–2	6%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	0–1	16%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Mississippi Surf (6th)	1–1	27%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Lobos Rush (5th)	1–1	26%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Mississippi Surf (6th)	1–1	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Alliance TN

-19

0.50

LWLLD

+0.30

+0.01

9.1

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Mississippi Surf (6th)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Mississippi Surf (6th)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Alabama FC (3rd)	0–8
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	0–1
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	2–5
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Alabama FC (3rd)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sat Oct 10 at Germantown Legends · Sun Oct 11 at Lobos Rush See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	North Georgia Soccer Academy (2nd)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	Germantown Legends (10th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Oct 11 (no score yet)	at	Lobos Rush (5th)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–3	2%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (7th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (7th)	1–2	26%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–3	1%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Germantown Legends (10th)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lobos Rush (5th)	0–2	13%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	North Georgia Soccer Academy (2nd)	0–4	2%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Germantown Legends

-18

0.38

WLLLL

-0.03

+0.35

9.6

L	Wed Oct 21	vs	Lobos Rush (5th)	0–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Mississippi Surf (6th)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	0–3
L	Tue Sep 15	at	Lobos Rush (5th)	1–2
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (7th)	3–2
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–6
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	0–1
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Mississippi Surf (6th)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 10 vs FC Alliance TN · Sun Oct 11 vs North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sun Oct 25 at Mississippi Rush United See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	FC Alliance TN (9th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Oct 11 (no score yet)	vs	North Georgia Soccer Academy (2nd)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	0–1	19%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	0–2	8%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Alabama FC (3rd)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	FC Alliance TN (9th)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	North Georgia Soccer Academy (2nd)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (7th)	1–2	34%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–3	2%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	Alabama FC (3rd)	0–4	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.64 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.