Tennessee SC
ECNL Regional League Boys · Mid-America BU13 · 10 teams · Tennessee SC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM
Tommy Shumpert, Field 3 ↗ far trip
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 8–0 (expected goals 8.9 for, 0.6 against · 2.99 expected points)
| Season so far | Tennessee SC | FC Alliance TN |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 10th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 7-0-0 | 0-0-6 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 3.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals against / game | 0.7 | 11.3 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 5 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W W | L L L L L |
| Biggest win | 7–1 vs Lobos Rush | — |
| Worst loss | — | 0–22 at Mississippi Surf |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.89 | -6.84 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.51 | +1.12 |
Common opponents: Mississippi Surf — we 3–2; they 1–9, 0–22. Mississippi Rush United — we 2–0; they 0–7, 0–7. Alabama FC Huntsville — we 3–1; they 0–10. Alabama FC — we 2–0; they 0–13.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
FC Alliance TN average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 2.8); blanked in 5 of 6.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
FC Alliance TN concede 11.3/game; worst result 0–22 at Mississippi Surf.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 100% chance; likely score 8–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
FC Alliance TN have lost 6 straight (form: LLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Tommy Shumpert.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Alliance TN game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Tennessee SC – FC Alliance TN) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.75 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 2.63 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 8–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 69%
- 2nd 19%
- 3rd 8%
- 4th 3%
- 5th <1%
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
24 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Tennessee SC to FC Alliance TN through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.70 · 8th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM |
FC Alliance TN 10th · 0-0-6 · GD -67 |
Away far trip
Tommy Shumpert |
●○○○○ Favorable | 100% |
8–0 | 2.99 | 3.00 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM |
North Georgia Soccer Academy 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +11 |
Away far trip
Heritage Point Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
1–1 | 1.53 | 2.84 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 21 09:00 AM |
Lobos Rush 8th · 1-1-5 · GD -13 |
Away far trip
W.C. Johnson Turf Park · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
3–1 | 2.51 | 2.80 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 22 10:30 AM |
Germantown Legends 9th · 1-0-6 · GD -23 |
Away far trip
Mike Rose Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
4–0 | 2.75 | 2.80 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 27 01:00 PM |
Mississippi Rush United 5th · 4-1-3 · GD +11 |
Away far trip
Freedom Ridge Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–1 | 1.84 | 2.72 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 28 TBD |
Mississippi Surf 6th · 3-1-4 · GD +25 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–2 | 1.67 | 2.64 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
North Georgia Soccer Academy 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +11 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–1 | 1.81 | 2.58 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
FC Alliance TN 10th · 0-0-6 · GD -67 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 100% |
9–0 | 3.00 | 2.61 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 02:00 PM |
Alabama FC Huntsville 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +17 |
Away far trip
Merrimack Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.36 | 2.53 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 09:00 AM |
Alabama FC 7th · 2-0-4 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF) |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
3–1 | 2.35 | 2.52 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Tennessee SC Murfreesboro 4th · 5-0-2 · GD +21 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–1 | 1.62 | 2.47 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tennessee SC | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 5 | +19 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | +0.51 | -0.70 | 100% | 1.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Oct 25 at North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sat Nov 21 at Lobos Rush See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Alabama FC Huntsville | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWLW | -0.54 | +0.02 | 95% | 2.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Alabama FC · Sat Nov 7 at Mississippi Surf · Sun Nov 8 at Mississippi Rush United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | North Georgia Soccer Academy | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 13 | 2.17 | WWDWW | +1.11 | -0.86 | 95% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Lobos Rush · Sun Oct 11 at Germantown Legends · Sat Oct 24 vs Tennessee SC Murfreesboro See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Tennessee SC Murfreesboro | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 8 | +21 | 15 | 2.14 | LWWWL | +0.48 | -0.71 | 94% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sun Oct 25 at FC Alliance TN · Sat Nov 21 at Germantown Legends See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Mississippi Rush United | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 13 | 1.63 | DLLWL | -1.22 | +0.74 | 6% | 5.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Alabama FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Alabama FC Huntsville · Sat Nov 21 at Mississippi Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Mississippi Surf | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 45 | 20 | +25 | 10 | 1.25 | WLLLW | -1.23 | +0.50 | 10% | 5.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Alabama FC Huntsville · Sun Nov 8 vs Alabama FC · Sat Nov 21 vs Mississippi Rush United See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Alabama FC | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 6 | 1.00 | LLWLL | -0.54 | +0.35 | 0% | 7.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Alabama FC Huntsville · Sat Nov 7 at Mississippi Rush United · Sun Nov 8 at Mississippi Surf See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Lobos Rush | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 4 | 0.57 | LLLLW | +0.70 | -0.44 | 0% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sun Oct 11 vs FC Alliance TN · Sat Nov 21 vs Tennessee SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Germantown Legends | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 30 | -23 | 3 | 0.43 | LLWLL | +0.88 | -0.35 | 0% | 8.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs FC Alliance TN · Sun Oct 11 vs North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sat Nov 21 vs Tennessee SC Murfreesboro See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | FC Alliance TN | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 68 | -67 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.12 | +0.53 | 0% | 10.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Germantown Legends · Sun Oct 11 at Lobos Rush · Sat Oct 24 vs Tennessee SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.78 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.