Mississippi Surf
ECNL Regional League Boys · Mid-America BU13 · 10 teams · Mississippi Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 7, 11:00 AM
BankPlus Sportsplex at Ballard Park, Paul Eason Field ↗
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.5 for, 2.7 against · 1.30 expected points)
| Season so far | Mississippi Surf | Alabama FC Huntsville |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-1-4 | 5-0-1 |
| Points per game | 1.25 | 2.50 |
| Goals for / game | 5.6 | 3.5 |
| Goals against / game | 2.5 | 0.7 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 4 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W L L L W | W L W W W |
| Biggest win | 22–0 vs FC Alliance TN | 10–0 vs FC Alliance TN |
| Worst loss | 2–5 at North Georgia Soccer Academy | 1–3 at Tennessee SC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.89 | +1.63 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -1.23 | -0.54 |
Common opponents: Germantown Legends — we 5–1; they 1–0. Lobos Rush — we 2–2; they 3–0. North Georgia Soccer Academy — we 2–5, 2–5; they 2–1. FC Alliance TN — we 9–1, 22–0; they 10–0. Tennessee SC — we 2–3; they 1–3. Tennessee SC Murfreesboro — we 1–3; they 4–0.
Game plan
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Hard to break down
Alabama FC Huntsville concede only 0.7/game with 4 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 37%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Alabama FC Huntsville game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Mississippi Surf – Alabama FC Huntsville) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.22 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.44 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Draw 1.22 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.11 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 6th even if every rival loses, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 2%
- 4th 8%
- 5th 46%
- 6th 40%
- 7th 3%
- 8th <1%
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.22 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tennessee SC | 3.00 (+1.75) | 1st (2.47) | 44 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Alabama FC Huntsville | 2.50 (+1.25) | 2nd (2.18) | 35 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 3 | North Georgia Soccer Academy | 2.17 (+0.92) | 4th (2.10) | 30 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 4 | Tennessee SC Murfreesboro | 2.14 (+0.89) | 3rd (2.10) | 29 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 5 | Mississippi Rush United | 1.63 (+0.38) | 6th (1.54) | 20 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
How the results connect
20 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Mississippi Surf to Alabama FC Huntsville through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.50 · 3rd hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM |
Alabama FC Huntsville 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +17 |
Home BankPlus Sportsplex at Ballard Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
2–2 | 1.30 | 1.26 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 09:00 AM |
Alabama FC 7th · 2-0-4 · GD -1 |
Home BankPlus Sportsplex at Ballard Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
5–2 | 2.48 | 1.38 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 21 TBD |
Mississippi Rush United 5th · 4-1-3 · GD +11 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
3–2 | 1.90 | 1.43 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 27 TBD |
Tennessee SC Murfreesboro 4th · 5-0-2 · GD +21 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
2–3 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 28 TBD |
Tennessee SC 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +19 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
2–2 | 1.16 | 1.39 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 01:00 PM |
Mississippi Rush United 5th · 4-1-3 · GD +11 |
Away far trip
Freedom Ridge Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
2–2 | 1.56 | 1.40 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 01:00 PM |
Alabama FC 7th · 2-0-4 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF) |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
4–2 | 2.20 | 1.46 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 02:00 PM |
Alabama FC Huntsville 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +17 |
Away far trip
Merrimack Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
2–3 | 0.97 | 1.43 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Lobos Rush 8th · 1-1-5 · GD -13 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
5–1 | 2.66 | 1.50 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Germantown Legends 9th · 1-0-6 · GD -23 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
6–1 | 2.86 | 1.57 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tennessee SC | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 5 | +19 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | +0.51 | -0.70 | 100% | 1.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Oct 25 at North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sat Nov 21 at Lobos Rush See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Alabama FC Huntsville | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWLW | -0.54 | +0.02 | 95% | 2.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Alabama FC · Sat Nov 7 at Mississippi Surf · Sun Nov 8 at Mississippi Rush United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | North Georgia Soccer Academy | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 13 | 2.17 | WWDWW | +1.11 | -0.86 | 95% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Lobos Rush · Sun Oct 11 at Germantown Legends · Sat Oct 24 vs Tennessee SC Murfreesboro See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Tennessee SC Murfreesboro | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 8 | +21 | 15 | 2.14 | LWWWL | +0.48 | -0.71 | 93% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sun Oct 25 at FC Alliance TN · Sat Nov 21 at Germantown Legends See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Mississippi Rush United | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 13 | 1.63 | DLLWL | -1.22 | +0.74 | 7% | 5.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Alabama FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Alabama FC Huntsville · Sat Nov 21 at Mississippi Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Mississippi Surf | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 45 | 20 | +25 | 10 | 1.25 | WLLLW | -1.23 | +0.50 | 10% | 5.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Alabama FC Huntsville · Sun Nov 8 vs Alabama FC · Sat Nov 21 vs Mississippi Rush United See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Alabama FC | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 6 | 1.00 | LLWLL | -0.54 | +0.35 | 0% | 7.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Alabama FC Huntsville · Sat Nov 7 at Mississippi Rush United · Sun Nov 8 at Mississippi Surf See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Lobos Rush | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 4 | 0.57 | LLLLW | +0.70 | -0.44 | 0% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sun Oct 11 vs FC Alliance TN · Sat Nov 21 vs Tennessee SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Germantown Legends | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 30 | -23 | 3 | 0.43 | LLWLL | +0.88 | -0.35 | 0% | 8.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs FC Alliance TN · Sun Oct 11 vs North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sat Nov 21 vs Tennessee SC Murfreesboro See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | FC Alliance TN | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 68 | -67 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.12 | +0.53 | 0% | 10.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Germantown Legends · Sun Oct 11 at Lobos Rush · Sat Oct 24 vs Tennessee SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.78 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.