Alabama FC Huntsville

ECNL Regional League Boys · Mid-America BU13 · 10 teams · Alabama FC (all teams)

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2nd

5-0-1 record · 6 played

2.50 points per game

+17 goal diff · 21–4

WWWLWlast 5

94% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.7

-0.54 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 11:00 AM

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Alabama FC Huntsville
2nd · 2.50 PPG

Mississippi Surf
6th · 1.25 PPG

BankPlus Sportsplex at Ballard Park, Paul Eason Field ↗ far trip

45% 18% 37%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.5 against · 1.52 expected points)

Season so far	Alabama FC Huntsville	Mississippi Surf
Position	2nd	6th
Record (W-D-L)	5-0-1	3-1-4
Points per game	2.50	1.25
Goals for / game	3.5	5.6
Goals against / game	0.7	2.5
Clean sheets	4	1
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W L W W W	W L L L W
Biggest win	10–0 vs FC Alliance TN	22–0 vs FC Alliance TN
Worst loss	1–3 at Tennessee SC	2–5 at North Georgia Soccer Academy
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.63	+1.89
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.54	-1.23

Common opponents: North Georgia Soccer Academy — we 2–1; they 2–5, 2–5. FC Alliance TN — we 10–0; they 9–1, 22–0. Lobos Rush — we 3–0; they 2–2. Germantown Legends — we 1–0; they 5–1. Tennessee SC — we 1–3; they 2–3. Tennessee SC Murfreesboro — we 4–0; they 1–3.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Mississippi Surf score 5.6/game — well above the league's 2.8.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Swing game — small margins
Win 45% / draw 18% / loss 37%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at BankPlus Sportsplex at Ballard Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Mississippi Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Alabama FC Huntsville – Mississippi Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 2.29 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Win 2.57 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Draw 2.29 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Loss 2.14 PPG	4th▼ down 2	4th▼ down 2	4th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

14% finish 1st

94% top 4

6% below the top 4

2.7 average finish

1st 14%
2nd 32%
3rd 28%
4th 20%
5th 6%
6th 1%
7th
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.83 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Tennessee SC	3.00 (+0.50)	1st (2.47)	39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection

How the results connect

20 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Alabama FC Huntsville to Mississippi Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

11 favour us

1 even

8 favour them

+0.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.02 · 5th hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 17 11:00 AM no score posted	Alabama FC 7th · 2-0-4 · GD -1	Away far trip Rathmell Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	70%	2–1	2.25	2.46	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM	Mississippi Surf 6th · 3-1-4 · GD +25	Away far trip BankPlus Sportsplex at Ballard Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	45%	2–2	1.52	2.35	Swing game
Sun Nov 8 09:00 AM	Mississippi Rush United 5th · 4-1-3 · GD +11	Away far trip Freedom Ridge Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	50%	2–1	1.73	2.28	Swing game
Sat Feb 27 TBD	FC Alliance TN 10th · 0-0-6 · GD -67	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	100%	8–0	2.99	2.35	Bank it
Sun Feb 28 TBD	North Georgia Soccer Academy 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +11	Away	●●●●○ Tough	40%	1–1	1.41	2.26	Upside
Sat Apr 3 TBD	Mississippi Rush United 5th · 4-1-3 · GD +11	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	60%	2–1	1.99	2.24	Swing game
Sun Apr 4 02:00 PM	Mississippi Surf 6th · 3-1-4 · GD +25	Home Merrimack Sports Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	57%	3–2	1.86	2.21	Swing game
Sat Apr 10 02:00 PM	Tennessee SC 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +19	Home Merrimack Sports Complex	●●●●○ Tough	39%	1–1	1.41	2.15	Upside
Sun Apr 11 02:00 PM	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro 4th · 5-0-2 · GD +21	Home Merrimack Sports Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	43%	2–1	1.50	2.11	Swing game
Sun Apr 18 02:00 PM	Alabama FC 7th · 2-0-4 · GD -1	Home Merrimack Sports Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	78%	3–1	2.47	2.13	Bank it
Sat Apr 24 TBD	Germantown Legends 9th · 1-0-6 · GD -23	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	87%	3–0	2.69	2.17	Bank it
Sun Apr 25 TBD	Lobos Rush 8th · 1-1-5 · GD -13	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	77%	3–1	2.43	2.18	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Tennessee SC

+19

3.00

WWWWW

+0.51

-0.70

100%

1.4

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Alabama FC (7th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (2nd)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Mississippi Surf (6th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (4th)	2–1
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Lobos Rush (8th)	7–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Germantown Legends (9th)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Oct 25 at North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sat Nov 21 at Lobos Rush See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Alliance TN (10th)	8–0	100%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	North Georgia Soccer Academy (3rd)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Lobos Rush (8th)	3–1	80%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Germantown Legends (9th)	4–0	89%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	2–1	54%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Mississippi Surf (6th)	2–2	50%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	North Georgia Soccer Academy (3rd)	2–1	54%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	FC Alliance TN (10th)	9–0	100%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (2nd)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Alabama FC (7th)	3–1	74%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (4th)	2–1	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Alabama FC Huntsville

+17

2.50

WWWLW

-0.54

+0.02

94%

2.7

W	Sun Oct 4	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (4th)	4–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Tennessee SC (1st)	1–3
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Germantown Legends (9th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lobos Rush (8th)	3–0
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	FC Alliance TN (10th)	10–0
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	North Georgia Soccer Academy (3rd)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 17 at Alabama FC · Sat Nov 7 at Mississippi Surf · Sun Nov 8 at Mississippi Rush United See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	at	Alabama FC (7th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Mississippi Surf (6th)	2–2	45%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	2–1	50%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	FC Alliance TN (10th)	8–0	100%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	North Georgia Soccer Academy (3rd)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Mississippi Surf (6th)	3–2	57%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Tennessee SC (1st)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (4th)	2–1	43%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Alabama FC (7th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Germantown Legends (9th)	3–0	87%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Lobos Rush (8th)	3–1	77%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

North Georgia Soccer Academy

+11

2.17

WWDWW

+1.11

-0.86

94%

3.1

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	5–2
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Mississippi Surf (6th)	5–2
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Mississippi Surf (6th)	5–2
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Alabama FC (7th)	3–0
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (2nd)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 10 at Lobos Rush · Sun Oct 11 at Germantown Legends · Sat Oct 24 vs Tennessee SC Murfreesboro See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	Lobos Rush (8th)	3–1	75%
·	Sun Oct 11 (no score yet)	at	Germantown Legends (9th)	4–1	86%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (4th)	2–2	38%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Tennessee SC (1st)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	FC Alliance TN (10th)	9–0	100%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Alabama FC (7th)	3–1	76%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (2nd)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Tennessee SC (1st)	1–2	26%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (4th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Lobos Rush (8th)	3–1	82%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Germantown Legends (9th)	4–1	91%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	FC Alliance TN (10th)	8–0	100%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tennessee SC Murfreesboro

+21

2.14

LWWWL

+0.48

-0.71

92%

3.0

L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (2nd)	0–4
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Alabama FC (7th)	8–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Mississippi Surf (6th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	4–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Tennessee SC (1st)	1–2
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Germantown Legends (9th)	7–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Lobos Rush (8th)	6–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sun Oct 25 at FC Alliance TN · Sat Nov 21 at Germantown Legends See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	North Georgia Soccer Academy (3rd)	2–2	42%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC Alliance TN (10th)	9–0	100%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Germantown Legends (9th)	4–1	91%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Lobos Rush (8th)	3–1	81%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Mississippi Surf (6th)	3–2	48%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	FC Alliance TN (10th)	9–0	100%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	North Georgia Soccer Academy (3rd)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Alabama FC (7th)	3–1	75%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (2nd)	1–2	36%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Tennessee SC (1st)	1–2	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mississippi Rush United

+11

1.63

DLLWL

-1.22

+0.74

5.5

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	North Georgia Soccer Academy (3rd)	2–5
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Alliance TN (10th)	7–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (4th)	0–4
D	Sun Sep 20	at	North Georgia Soccer Academy (3rd)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Alliance TN (10th)	7–0
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Germantown Legends (9th)	5–1
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Lobos Rush (8th)	2–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Alabama FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Alabama FC Huntsville · Sat Nov 21 at Mississippi Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Alabama FC (7th)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (2nd)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Mississippi Surf (6th)	2–3	26%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Tennessee SC (1st)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (4th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Mississippi Surf (6th)	2–2	37%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (2nd)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Alabama FC (7th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Germantown Legends (9th)	3–1	84%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Lobos Rush (8th)	2–1	72%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mississippi Surf

+25

1.25

WLLLW

-1.23

+0.50

12%

5.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Alliance TN (10th)	22–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	North Georgia Soccer Academy (3rd)	2–5
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (4th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Tennessee SC (1st)	2–3
W	Sun Sep 20	at	FC Alliance TN (10th)	9–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	North Georgia Soccer Academy (3rd)	2–5
D	Sun Aug 23	at	Lobos Rush (8th)	2–2
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Germantown Legends (9th)	5–1

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Alabama FC Huntsville · Sun Nov 8 vs Alabama FC · Sat Nov 21 vs Mississippi Rush United See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (2nd)	2–2	37%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Alabama FC (7th)	5–2	80%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	3–2	58%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (4th)	2–3	36%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Tennessee SC (1st)	2–2	33%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Alabama FC (7th)	4–2	69%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (2nd)	2–3	27%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Lobos Rush (8th)	5–1	86%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Germantown Legends (9th)	6–1	94%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Alabama FC

-1

1.00

LLWLL

-0.54

+0.35

7.4

L	Sun Oct 4	at	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (4th)	0–8
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lobos Rush (8th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Germantown Legends (9th)	2–4
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	North Georgia Soccer Academy (3rd)	0–3
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	FC Alliance TN (10th)	13–0

Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Alabama FC Huntsville · Sat Nov 7 at Mississippi Rush United · Sun Nov 8 at Mississippi Surf See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (2nd)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Mississippi Surf (6th)	2–5	11%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	North Georgia Soccer Academy (3rd)	1–3	12%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	FC Alliance TN (10th)	6–1	97%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Mississippi Surf (6th)	2–4	18%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (4th)	1–3	13%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Tennessee SC (1st)	1–3	13%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (2nd)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Lobos Rush (8th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Germantown Legends (9th)	3–1	63%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lobos Rush

-13

0.57

LLLLW

+0.70

-0.44

7.8

W	Tue Oct 20	at	Germantown Legends (9th)	5–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Alabama FC (7th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (2nd)	0–3
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Tennessee SC (1st)	1–7
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (4th)	1–6
D	Sun Aug 23	vs	Mississippi Surf (6th)	2–2
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 10 vs North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sun Oct 11 vs FC Alliance TN · Sat Nov 21 vs Tennessee SC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	North Georgia Soccer Academy (3rd)	1–3	12%
·	Sun Oct 11 (no score yet)	vs	FC Alliance TN (10th)	6–1	95%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Tennessee SC (1st)	1–3	8%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (4th)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Germantown Legends (9th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	North Georgia Soccer Academy (3rd)	1–3	8%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	FC Alliance TN (10th)	5–1	92%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Mississippi Surf (6th)	1–5	6%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Alabama FC (7th)	2–2	34%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (2nd)	1–3	10%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Germantown Legends

-23

0.43

LLWLL

+0.88

-0.35

8.8

L	Tue Oct 20	vs	Lobos Rush (8th)	1–5
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (2nd)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Alabama FC (7th)	4–2
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (4th)	0–7
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–5
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	1–5
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Mississippi Surf (6th)	1–5

Next: Sat Oct 10 vs FC Alliance TN · Sun Oct 11 vs North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sat Nov 21 vs Tennessee SC Murfreesboro See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	FC Alliance TN (10th)	5–1	91%
·	Sun Oct 11 (no score yet)	vs	North Georgia Soccer Academy (3rd)	1–4	6%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (4th)	1–4	4%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–4	4%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Lobos Rush (8th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	FC Alliance TN (10th)	4–1	84%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	North Georgia Soccer Academy (3rd)	1–4	3%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	1–3	7%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Mississippi Surf (6th)	1–6	2%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (2nd)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Alabama FC (7th)	1–3	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Alliance TN

-67

0.00

LLLLL

+1.12

+0.53

10.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Mississippi Surf (6th)	0–22
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	0–7
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Mississippi Surf (6th)	1–9
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	0–7
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (2nd)	0–10
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Alabama FC (7th)	0–13

Next: Sat Oct 10 at Germantown Legends · Sun Oct 11 at Lobos Rush · Sat Oct 24 vs Tennessee SC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	Germantown Legends (9th)	1–5	4%
·	Sun Oct 11 (no score yet)	at	Lobos Rush (8th)	1–6	2%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–8	0%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (4th)	0–9	0%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	North Georgia Soccer Academy (3rd)	0–9	0%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (2nd)	0–8	0%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Alabama FC (7th)	1–6	1%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (4th)	0–9	0%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–9	0%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Germantown Legends (9th)	1–4	7%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Lobos Rush (8th)	1–5	3%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	North Georgia Soccer Academy (3rd)	0–8	0%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.78 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.