Union KC Soccer Club Navy
ECNL Regional League Boys · Heartland BU14 · 10 teams · Union KC Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
Stryker Soccer Complex, Field 3 ↗ far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.4 for, 2.8 against · 1.73 expected points)
| Season so far | Union KC Soccer Club Navy | FC Wichita |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-2 | 3-0-4 |
| Points per game | 2.14 | 1.29 |
| Goals for / game | 4.4 | 3.1 |
| Goals against / game | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L W W | L W W L L |
| Biggest win | 10–0 vs Kansas Rush | 9–1 at Kansas Rush |
| Worst loss | 1–5 vs Toca Fusion Elite | 0–6 vs Toca Fusion Elite |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.43 | +0.41 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.27 | +0.09 |
Common opponents: Missouri Rush — we 7–2; they 8–3. St. Louis Stars SC — we 2–1; they 3–0. Kansas Rush — we 10–0; they 9–1. Kansas City Athletics — we 1–2; they 0–1. Kansas City Surf — we 4–2; they 1–3. Toca Fusion Elite — we 1–5; they 0–6.
Game plan
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Swing game — small margins
Win 52% / draw 16% / loss 32%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Stryker Soccer Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Southwest MO Rush sit 2nd on 2.17 PPG; we are on 2.14.A point moves us above Southwest MO Rush on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Wichita game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Union KC Soccer Club Navy – FC Wichita) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.25 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Win 2.25 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.88 PPG |
4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 22%
- 3rd 48%
- 4th 24%
- 5th 5%
- 6th 1%
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toca Fusion Elite | 3.00 (+0.86) | 1st (2.85) | 39 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Southwest MO Rush | 2.17 (+0.03) | 4th (1.82) | A point next game |
How the results connect
41 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Union KC Soccer Club Navy to FC Wichita through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
14 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.02 · 7th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
FC Wichita 5th · 3-0-4 · GD +5 |
Away far trip
Stryker Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
3–2 | 1.73 | 2.09 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 02:00 PM |
Southwest MO Rush 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +7 |
Away far trip
Lake Country Soccer Complex North 1 |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
2–2 | 1.44 | 2.02 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 5 TBD |
Kansas City Surf 4th · 5-0-2 · GD +16 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
2–3 | 1.00 | 1.92 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 6 TBD |
Toca Fusion Elite 1st · 8-0-0 · GD +41 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–4 | 0.28 | 1.77 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Missouri Rush 9th · 2-0-6 · GD -18 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
5–2 | 2.49 | 1.83 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
St. Louis Stars SC 6th · 3-1-4 · GD +2 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–2 | 1.66 | 1.82 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 27 01:00 PM |
Union KC Soccer Club Red 8th · 2-1-4 · GD -11 |
Away Paragon Star |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
3–1 | 2.42 | 1.86 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 24 10:00 AM |
Kansas City Athletics 7th · 3-1-4 · GD -10 |
Home Paragon Star |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
3–1 | 2.59 | 1.91 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Kansas Rush 10th · 0-0-8 · GD -49 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
7–1 | 2.96 | 1.97 | Bank it |
| Sat May 8 01:00 PM |
Southwest MO Rush 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +7 |
Home Paragon Star |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
2–1 | 1.74 | 1.96 | Swing game |
| Sun May 9 10:00 AM |
FC Wichita 5th · 3-0-4 · GD +5 |
Home Paragon Star |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
3–2 | 2.08 | 1.97 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toca Fusion Elite | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 44 | 3 | +41 | 24 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.23 | -0.44 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Kansas City Athletics · Sat Dec 5 vs Union KC Soccer Club Red · Sun Dec 6 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Southwest MO Rush | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 13 | 2.17 | WWLDW | -0.30 | +0.13 | 78% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Union KC Soccer Club Red · Sat Oct 31 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy · Sat Nov 14 vs Kansas City Surf See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Union KC Soccer Club Navy | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 14 | +17 | 15 | 2.14 | WWLWL | -0.27 | -0.02 | 94% | 3.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Wichita · Sat Oct 31 at Southwest MO Rush · Sat Dec 5 at Kansas City Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Kansas City Surf | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 10 | +16 | 15 | 2.14 | WWLWL | +0.43 | -0.48 | 99% | 2.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Kansas Rush · Sat Nov 14 at Southwest MO Rush · Sat Dec 5 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | FC Wichita | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 9 | 1.29 | LLWWL | +0.09 | +0.01 | 12% | 5.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy · Sat Oct 31 vs Union KC Soccer Club Red · Sat Feb 27 at Southwest MO Rush See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | St. Louis Stars SC | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 10 | 1.25 | LDLWW | -0.03 | -0.15 | 17% | 5.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Missouri Rush · Sat Mar 6 at Missouri Rush · Sat Mar 13 vs Union KC Soccer Club Red See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Kansas City Athletics | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 10 | 1.25 | WDWLL | -0.33 | +0.47 | 0% | 7.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Toca Fusion Elite · Sun Mar 21 at FC Wichita · Sat Mar 27 vs Kansas Rush See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Union KC Soccer Club Red | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 7 | 1.00 | WDWLL | +0.05 | +0.21 | 0% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Southwest MO Rush · Sat Oct 31 at FC Wichita · Sat Dec 5 at Toca Fusion Elite See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Missouri Rush | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 38 | -18 | 6 | 0.75 | LLLWW | -0.03 | +0.18 | 0% | 8.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at St. Louis Stars SC · Sat Mar 6 vs St. Louis Stars SC · Sat Mar 13 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Kansas Rush | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 53 | -49 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.32 | +0.62 | 0% | 10.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Kansas City Surf · Sat Mar 20 at FC Wichita · Sat Mar 27 at Kansas City Athletics See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.56 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.