Gretna Elite Academy
ECNL Regional League Boys · Heartland BU13 · 6 teams · Gretna Elite Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 12:00 PM
Pinnacle Bank Soccer Complex ( Gretna Soccer Compl, Field 2 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.2 for, 1.8 against · 1.66 expected points)
| Season so far | Gretna Elite Academy | Sporting Iowa Strikers |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-2-3 | 3-2-3 |
| Points per game | 1.14 | 1.38 |
| Goals for / game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.7 | 2.6 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W L L D W | L W L D W |
| Biggest win | 4–3 at FC United Iowa | 4–3 vs Sporting Iowa Central |
| Worst loss | 0–2 vs Sporting Iowa Central | 1–5 at VSA Rush |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.13 | -0.39 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.13 | +0.24 |
Already played this season: Sun Sep 27 0–0 at Sporting Iowa Strikers (D)
Common opponents: Sporting Iowa Central — we 1–1, 0–2; they 4–3, 3–2. VSA Rush — we 1–2, 1–2; they 1–4, 1–5. FC United Iowa — we 4–3; they 2–2, 2–3. Sporting Nebraska FC — we 3–2; they 3–2.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 at Sporting Iowa Strikers, 0–2 vs Sporting Iowa Central.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 48% / draw 20% / loss 31%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Sporting Iowa Strikers game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Gretna Elite Academy – Sporting Iowa Strikers) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.38 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Win 1.38 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Draw 1.13 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 5%
- 3rd 24%
- 4th 24%
- 5th 45%
- 6th 1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 1.70 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VSA Rush | 2.13 (+0.99) | 1st (2.07) | 14 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | FC United Iowa | 1.83 (+0.69) | 2nd (1.77) | 11 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Sporting Iowa Central | 1.63 (+0.49) | 3rd (1.47) | 9 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection |
| 4 | Sporting Iowa Strikers | 1.38 (+0.24) | 4th (1.38) | 6 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection |
How the results connect
51 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Gretna Elite Academy to Sporting Iowa Strikers through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.31 · 5th hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM |
Sporting Iowa Strikers 4th · 3-2-3 · GD -5 |
Home Pinnacle Bank Soccer Complex ( Gretna Soccer Compl |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
2–1 | 1.66 | 1.21 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 09:00 AM |
FC United Iowa 2nd · 3-2-1 · GD +5 |
Home Pinnacle Bank Soccer Complex ( Gretna Soccer Compl |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–2 | 1.18 | 1.20 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 12:00 PM |
Sporting Nebraska FC 6th · 0-1-6 · GD -12 |
Home Pinnacle Bank Soccer Complex ( Gretna Soccer Compl |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 2.01 | 1.28 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | VSA Rush | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 17 | 2.13 | WWDWD | -0.32 | +0.26 | 100% | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Sporting Iowa Central · Sun Nov 8 at FC United Iowa See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | FC United Iowa | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 11 | 1.83 | LWWDW | -0.14 | -0.03 | 98% | 2.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Sporting Nebraska FC · Sun Nov 1 at Gretna Elite Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting Iowa Central See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Sporting Iowa Central | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 13 | 1.63 | LLLWW | -0.21 | +0.77 | 89% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at VSA Rush · Sat Nov 7 at FC United Iowa See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Sporting Iowa Strikers | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 11 | 1.38 | WDLWL | +0.24 | -0.59 | 59% | 4.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Gretna Elite Academy · Sun Nov 1 at Sporting Nebraska FC See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Gretna Elite Academy | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 8 | 1.14 | WDLLW | +0.13 | -0.31 | 54% | 4.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Sporting Iowa Strikers · Sun Nov 1 vs FC United Iowa · Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting Nebraska FC See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Sporting Nebraska FC | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 1 | 0.14 | LLLDL | +0.28 | -0.01 | 0% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs FC United Iowa · Sun Nov 1 vs Sporting Iowa Strikers · Sat Nov 7 at Gretna Elite Academy See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.89 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.