Mustang Soccer -RL
ECNL Regional League Boys · Golden State BU17 · 7 teams · Mustang Soccer (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM
River Islands Soccer Complex, Field #2 ↗ far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.7 for, 1.2 against · 1.72 expected points)
| Season so far | Mustang Soccer -RL | Club America Nido Aguila | Valley |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-3-2 | 2-2-3 |
| Points per game | 1.29 | 1.14 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W L D D | W L W D L |
| Biggest win | 6–0 at Association FC | 3–1 vs San Juan SC |
| Worst loss | 0–1 vs Association FC | 1–3 at San Juan SC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.63 | -0.11 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.34 | +0.02 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 1–1 vs Club America Nido Aguila | Valley (D)
Common opponents: Folsom Lake Surf — we 3–3, 3–0; they 1–1. Association FC — we 0–1, 6–0; they 1–2. San Juan SC — we 0–0; they 3–1, 1–3. Placer United — we 1–2; they 2–3.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 vs Association FC, 0–0 vs San Juan SC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 49% / draw 24% / loss 26%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at River Islands Soccer Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Davis Legacy sit 4th on 1.33 PPG; we are on 1.29.A point moves us above Davis Legacy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Club America Nido Aguila | Valley game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Mustang Soccer -RL – Club America Nido Aguila | Valley) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.25 PPG |
5th— holds | 4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
3rd▲ up 2 | 4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds |
| Draw 1.25 PPG |
5th— holds | 4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds |
| Loss 1.13 PPG |
6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 2%
- 2nd 21%
- 3rd 29%
- 4th 25%
- 5th 15%
- 6th 8%
- 7th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.20 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Placer United | 2.14 (+0.85) | 1st (2.09) | 24 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 2 | San Juan SC | 1.71 (+0.42) | 2nd (1.68) | 17 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 3 | Association FC | 1.43 (+0.14) | 6th (1.15) | A point next game |
| 4 | Davis Legacy | 1.33 (+0.04) | 4th (1.41) | A point next game |
How the results connect
38 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Mustang Soccer -RL to Club America Nido Aguila | Valley through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.16 · 1st hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM |
Club America Nido Aguila | Valley 6th · 2-2-3 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
River Islands Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
1–1 | 1.72 | 1.34 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 01:00 PM |
San Juan SC 2nd · 3-3-1 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
Tiemann Law Firm Fields at San Juan Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
1–1 | 1.49 | 1.36 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 11:00 AM |
Placer United 1st · 5-0-2 · GD +12 |
Home Provident Field @ MSC |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
2–2 | 1.50 | 1.37 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Marin FC |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
1–1 | 1.92 | 1.42 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 27 TBD |
MVLA |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
1–1 | 1.92 | 1.46 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 10:00 AM |
Davis Legacy 4th · 2-2-2 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Davis Legacy Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.62 | 1.47 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
1974 Newark FC |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
1–1 | 1.92 | 1.51 | Swing game |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Davis Legacy 4th · 2-2-2 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
1–0 | 1.85 | 1.53 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Placer United | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 13 | +12 | 15 | 2.14 | WLWWW | -0.16 | -0.14 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Folsom Lake Surf · Sat Oct 31 at San Juan SC · Sat Nov 14 at Mustang Soccer -RL See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | San Juan SC | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 12 | 1.71 | WDDLW | -0.05 | -0.01 | 94% | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Placer United · Sat Nov 7 vs Mustang Soccer -RL · Sat Nov 14 vs Davis Legacy See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Association FC | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 10 | 1.43 | LWWLL | +0.23 | +0.03 | 27% | 5.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Davis Legacy · Sat Oct 31 vs Club America Nido Aguila | Valley · Sat Nov 7 at Folsom Lake Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Davis Legacy | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | +0 | 8 | 1.33 | WWDLL | +0.12 | -0.07 | 67% | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Association FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Folsom Lake Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Club America Nido Aguila | Valley See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Mustang Soccer -RL | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 9 | 1.29 | DDLWW | -0.34 | +0.16 | 77% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Club America Nido Aguila | Valley · Sat Nov 7 at San Juan SC · Sat Nov 14 vs Placer United See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Club America Nido Aguila | Valley | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 8 | 1.14 | LDWLW | +0.02 | -0.01 | 35% | 4.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Mustang Soccer -RL · Sat Oct 31 at Association FC · Sat Nov 7 at Davis Legacy See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Folsom Lake Surf | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 17 | -11 | 3 | 0.43 | LLLDL | +0.22 | +0.05 | 1% | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Placer United · Sat Oct 31 at Davis Legacy · Sat Nov 7 vs Association FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.66 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.