Upper 90 FC
ECNL Regional League Boys · GLA BU13 · 9 teams · Upper 90 FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:30 PM
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.3 for, 1.1 against · 2.73 expected points)
| Season so far | Upper 90 FC | Rochester NY FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-4 | 0-0-4 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.7 | 0.3 |
| Goals against / game | 2.2 | 6.8 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | W L L L L | L L L L |
| Biggest win | 4–1 vs WNY Flash | — |
| Worst loss | 0–3 at Steel City FC | 0–10 vs WNY Flash |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.23 | -3.65 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.40 | +0.12 |
Common opponents: WNY Flash — we 4–1; they 0–10. WNY Flash Rochester — we 1–2; they 0–6. Pittsburgh Riverhounds — we 0–1; they 1–4. Steel City FC — we 0–3; they 0–7.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Rochester NY FC average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 2.4); blanked in 3 of 4.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
Rochester NY FC concede 6.8/game; worst result 0–10 vs WNY Flash.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–1 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds, 0–3 at Steel City FC, 0–2 vs T3FC East.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 89% chance; likely score 4–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
Rochester NY FC have lost 4 straight (form: LLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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What a win does
Pittsburgh Riverhounds sit 7th on 1.17 PPG; we are on 1.00.A point moves us above Pittsburgh Riverhounds on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Rochester NY FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Upper 90 FC – Rochester NY FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.29 PPG |
6th▲ up 2 | 6th▲ up 2 | 8th— holds |
| Win 1.29 PPG |
6th▲ up 2 | 6th▲ up 2 | 8th— holds |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
8th— holds | 7th▲ up 1 | 8th— holds |
| Loss 0.86 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 9th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 2%
- 4th 7%
- 5th 12%
- 6th 21%
- 7th 29%
- 8th 30%
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Croatia Juniors | 3.00 (+2.00) | 1st (2.33) | 42 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Cleveland Force SC | 2.40 (+1.40) | 2nd (2.12) | 33 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 3 | Steel City FC | 1.67 (+0.67) | 3rd (1.79) | 21 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 4 | WNY Flash | 1.50 (+0.50) | 4th (1.51) | 18 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 5 | T3FC East | 1.40 (+0.40) | 5th (1.46) | 17 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 6 | WNY Flash Rochester | 1.17 (+0.17) | 6th (1.34) | A point next game |
| 7 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 1.17 (+0.17) | 8th (1.16) | A point next game |
How the results connect
16 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Upper 90 FC to Rochester NY FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.21 · 5th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 02:30 PM |
Rochester NY FC 9th · 0-0-4 · GD -26 |
Home Gameday Sports |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
4–1 | 2.73 | 1.25 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM |
Croatia Juniors 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +10 |
Home Gameday Sports |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.77 | 1.19 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 12:00 PM |
Rochester NY FC 9th · 0-0-4 · GD -26 |
Away far trip
RNYFC Youth Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
3–1 | 2.57 | 1.34 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 13 02:45 PM |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 7th · 2-1-3 · GD -6 |
Home Gameday Sports |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
2–1 | 1.74 | 1.38 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 10:15 AM |
Steel City FC 3rd · 3-1-2 · GD +8 |
Home Gameday Sports |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–2 | 1.04 | 1.35 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
T3FC East 5th · 2-1-2 · GD +2 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–2 | 0.98 | 1.32 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 01:45 PM |
Cleveland Force SC 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +13 |
Home Gameday Sports |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–3 | 0.79 | 1.28 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
Croatia Juniors 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +10 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–3 | 0.54 | 1.23 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 08:00 AM |
WNY Flash 4th · 3-0-3 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
Flash Fields |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
2–2 | 0.99 | 1.21 | Upside |
| Sun May 16 TBD |
WNY Flash Rochester 6th · 2-1-3 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–1 | 1.12 | 1.20 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Croatia Juniors | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | +0.12 | -0.31 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Cleveland Force SC · Mon Jan 1 vs Rochester NY FC · Sat Oct 24 at T3FC East See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Cleveland Force SC | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 12 | 2.40 | WWWWL | +0.04 | -0.27 | 98% | 2.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Croatia Juniors · Sat Mar 13 vs Croatia Juniors · Sun Mar 14 vs Rochester NY FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Steel City FC | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 10 | 1.67 | LWLWD | -0.20 | -0.39 | 84% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Oct 24 vs WNY Flash · Sun Oct 25 vs WNY Flash Rochester See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | WNY Flash | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 9 | 1.50 | LLWWW | -0.10 | -0.03 | 44% | 4.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Steel City FC · Sun Oct 25 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Mar 14 at T3FC East See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | T3FC East | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 7 | 1.40 | LWDLW | +0.04 | +0.03 | 37% | 5.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Croatia Juniors · Sun Oct 25 vs Rochester NY FC · Sat Mar 13 vs WNY Flash Rochester See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | WNY Flash Rochester | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 11 | +0 | 7 | 1.17 | WWLDL | -0.06 | +0.02 | 22% | 5.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Oct 25 at Steel City FC · Sat Mar 13 at T3FC East See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 7 | 1.17 | WLLWD | +0.05 | -0.26 | 6% | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Steel City FC · Sat Oct 24 vs WNY Flash Rochester · Sun Oct 25 vs WNY Flash See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Upper 90 FC | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 6 | 1.00 | LLLLW | +0.40 | -0.21 | 9% | 6.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Rochester NY FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Croatia Juniors · Sat Mar 6 at Rochester NY FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Rochester NY FC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 27 | -26 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.12 | +0.48 | 0% | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Croatia Juniors · Sat Oct 24 at Upper 90 FC · Sun Oct 25 at T3FC East See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.44 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.