Cleveland Force SC

ECNL Regional League Boys · GLA BU13 · 9 teams · Cleveland Force SC (all teams)

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2nd

4-0-1 record · 5 played

2.40 points per game

+13 goal diff · 22–9

WWWWLlast 5

98% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.0

+0.04 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Mar 13, 09:00 AM

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Cleveland Force SC
2nd · 2.40 PPG

Croatia Juniors
1st · 3.00 PPG

Victory Park, Field 2 ↗

45% 17% 38%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 3.0 for, 2.7 against · 1.51 expected points)

Season so far	Cleveland Force SC	Croatia Juniors
Position	2nd	1st
Record (W-D-L)	4-0-1	4-0-0
Points per game	2.40	3.00
Goals for / game	4.4	3.8
Goals against / game	1.8	1.3
Clean sheets	0	2
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	L W W W W	W W W W
Biggest win	7–1 vs WNY Flash	4–0 vs WNY Flash Rochester
Worst loss	4–5 vs Upper 90 FC	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.52	+1.45
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.04	+0.12

Common opponents: WNY Flash Rochester — we 2–1; they 4–0. WNY Flash — we 7–1; they 4–2. Pittsburgh Riverhounds — we 6–1; they 3–0. Steel City FC — we 3–1; they 4–3.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Croatia Juniors score 3.8/game — well above the league's 2.4.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Swing game — small margins
Win 45% / draw 17% / loss 38%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
They arrive in form
Croatia Juniors have won 4 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Croatia Juniors game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Cleveland Force SC – Croatia Juniors) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Mar 8 – Sun Mar 14); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 2.17 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Win 2.50 PPG	1st▲ up 1	1st▲ up 1	1st▲ up 1
Draw 2.17 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Loss 2.00 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

27% finish 1st

98% top 4

2% below the top 4

2.0 average finish

1st 27%
2nd 52%
3rd 15%
4th 4%
5th 1%
6th <1%
7th <1%
8th <1%
9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.82 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Croatia Juniors	3.00 (+0.60)	1st (2.33)	39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection

How the results connect

12 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Cleveland Force SC to Croatia Juniors through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us

1 even

6 favour them

-0.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.27 · 7th hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Mon Jan 1 TBD no score posted	Croatia Juniors 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +10	Away	●●●●○ Tough	33%	2–3	1.16	2.19	Upside
Sat Mar 13 09:00 AM	Croatia Juniors 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +10	Home Victory Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	45%	2–2	1.51	2.10	Swing game
Sun Mar 14 09:00 AM	Rochester NY FC 9th · 0-0-4 · GD -26	Home Victory Park	●○○○○ Favorable	99%	8–1	2.97	2.21	Bank it
Sat Mar 20 10:30 AM	Pittsburgh Riverhounds 7th · 2-1-3 · GD -6	Away far trip Montour Junction Sports Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	70%	3–1	2.25	2.21	Bank it
Sun Mar 21 TBD	Steel City FC 3rd · 3-1-2 · GD +8	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	44%	2–2	1.50	2.14	Swing game
Sat Apr 17 TBD	T3FC East 5th · 2-1-2 · GD +2	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	53%	2–2	1.76	2.10	Swing game
Sun Apr 18 01:45 PM	Upper 90 FC 8th · 2-0-4 · GD -3	Away Gameday Sports	●●○○○ Lean win	63%	3–1	2.05	2.10	Swing game
Sat May 1 10:00 AM	Rochester NY FC 9th · 0-0-4 · GD -26	Away far trip Geneseo Central School District athletic complex	●○○○○ Favorable	97%	7–1	2.93	2.16	Bank it
Sun May 9 TBD	T3FC East 5th · 2-1-2 · GD +2	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	3–2	2.08	2.16	Swing game
Sat May 15 TBD	WNY Flash Rochester 6th · 2-1-3 · GD +0	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	57%	2–1	1.88	2.14	Swing game
Sun May 16 11:15 AM	WNY Flash 4th · 3-0-3 · GD +2	Away far trip Flash Fields	●●●○○ Toss-up	57%	3–2	1.87	2.12	Swing game
Sun May 16 TBD	T3FC East 5th · 2-1-2 · GD +2	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	3–2	2.08	2.12	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Croatia Juniors

+10

3.00

WWWW

+0.12

-0.31

100%

1.4

W	Sun Sep 27	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (6th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	WNY Flash (4th)	4–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Steel City FC (3rd)	4–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (7th)	3–0

Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Cleveland Force SC · Mon Jan 1 vs Rochester NY FC · Sat Oct 24 at T3FC East See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	vs	Cleveland Force SC (2nd)	3–2	50%
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	vs	Rochester NY FC (9th)	7–0	98%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	T3FC East (5th)	2–1	54%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Upper 90 FC (8th)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Cleveland Force SC (2nd)	2–2	38%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	WNY Flash (4th)	3–2	58%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	WNY Flash Rochester (6th)	2–1	57%
·	Sun May 2	at	Rochester NY FC (9th)	6–1	97%
·	Sat May 8	vs	T3FC East (5th)	2–1	64%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Upper 90 FC (8th)	3–1	73%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (7th)	3–1	78%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Steel City FC (3rd)	2–1	57%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cleveland Force SC

+13

2.40

WWWWL

+0.04

-0.27

98%

2.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Upper 90 FC (8th)	4–5
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Steel City FC (3rd)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (7th)	6–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	WNY Flash (4th)	7–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (6th)	2–1

Next: Mon Jan 1 at Croatia Juniors · Sat Mar 13 vs Croatia Juniors · Sun Mar 14 vs Rochester NY FC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	at	Croatia Juniors (1st)	2–3	33%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Croatia Juniors (1st)	2–2	45%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Rochester NY FC (9th)	8–1	99%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (7th)	3–1	70%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Steel City FC (3rd)	2–2	44%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	T3FC East (5th)	2–2	53%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Upper 90 FC (8th)	3–1	63%
·	Sat May 1	at	Rochester NY FC (9th)	7–1	97%
·	Sun May 9	vs	T3FC East (5th)	3–2	64%
·	Sat May 15	at	WNY Flash Rochester (6th)	2–1	57%
·	Sun May 16	at	WNY Flash (4th)	3–2	57%
·	Sun May 16	vs	T3FC East (5th)	3–2	64%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Steel City FC

1.67

LWLWD

-0.20

-0.39

85%

3.4

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (7th)	1–1
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Upper 90 FC (8th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Cleveland Force SC (2nd)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 26	at	T3FC East (5th)	3–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Croatia Juniors (1st)	3–4
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Rochester NY FC (9th)	7–0

Next: Mon Jan 1 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Oct 24 vs WNY Flash · Sun Oct 25 vs WNY Flash Rochester See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (7th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	WNY Flash (4th)	3–2	58%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (6th)	2–1	56%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Upper 90 FC (8th)	2–1	52%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	T3FC East (5th)	2–1	53%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Cleveland Force SC (2nd)	2–2	38%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	WNY Flash (4th)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Rochester NY FC (9th)	5–1	93%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	WNY Flash Rochester (6th)	2–1	46%
·	Sat May 15	at	Rochester NY FC (9th)	5–1	93%
·	Sun May 16	at	Croatia Juniors (1st)	1–2	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash

1.50

LLWWW

-0.10

-0.03

44%

4.8

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (6th)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	T3FC East (5th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Rochester NY FC (9th)	10–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Croatia Juniors (1st)	2–4
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Cleveland Force SC (2nd)	1–7
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Upper 90 FC (8th)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Steel City FC · Sun Oct 25 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Mar 14 at T3FC East See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Steel City FC (3rd)	2–3	26%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (7th)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	T3FC East (5th)	2–2	34%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Croatia Juniors (1st)	2–3	26%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Rochester NY FC (9th)	6–1	95%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (7th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Steel City FC (3rd)	2–2	36%
·	Sun May 2	at	WNY Flash Rochester (6th)	2–2	38%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Upper 90 FC (8th)	2–2	55%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Cleveland Force SC (2nd)	2–3	28%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

T3FC East

1.40

LWDLW

+0.04

+0.03

37%

5.2

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Upper 90 FC (8th)	2–0
L	Sun Oct 4	at	WNY Flash (4th)	2–3
D	Sat Oct 3	at	WNY Flash Rochester (6th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (7th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Steel City FC (3rd)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Croatia Juniors · Sun Oct 25 vs Rochester NY FC · Sat Mar 13 vs WNY Flash Rochester See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Croatia Juniors (1st)	1–2	28%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Rochester NY FC (9th)	5–1	94%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (6th)	2–1	48%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	WNY Flash (4th)	2–2	48%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Steel City FC (3rd)	1–2	28%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (7th)	2–1	51%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Upper 90 FC (8th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Cleveland Force SC (2nd)	2–2	30%
·	Sat May 8	at	Croatia Juniors (1st)	1–2	19%
·	Sun May 9	at	Rochester NY FC (9th)	4–1	89%
·	Sun May 9	at	Cleveland Force SC (2nd)	2–3	21%
·	Sat May 15	at	WNY Flash Rochester (6th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun May 16	at	Cleveland Force SC (2nd)	2–3	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash Rochester

1.17

WWLDL

-0.06

+0.02

23%

5.8

L	Sat Oct 17	at	WNY Flash (4th)	0–2
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	T3FC East (5th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Croatia Juniors (1st)	0–4
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Rochester NY FC (9th)	6–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Upper 90 FC (8th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Cleveland Force SC (2nd)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Oct 25 at Steel City FC · Sat Mar 13 at T3FC East See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (7th)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Steel City FC (3rd)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	T3FC East (5th)	1–2	30%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Rochester NY FC (9th)	4–0	90%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Croatia Juniors (1st)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (7th)	2–1	55%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Steel City FC (3rd)	1–2	32%
·	Sun May 2	vs	WNY Flash (4th)	2–2	42%
·	Sat May 15	vs	T3FC East (5th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Cleveland Force SC (2nd)	1–2	26%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Upper 90 FC (8th)	1–1	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

-6

1.17

WLLWD

+0.05

-0.26

6.9

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Steel City FC (3rd)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Upper 90 FC (8th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	T3FC East (5th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Cleveland Force SC (2nd)	1–6
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Rochester NY FC (9th)	4–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Croatia Juniors (1st)	0–3

Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Steel City FC · Sat Oct 24 vs WNY Flash Rochester · Sun Oct 25 vs WNY Flash See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	vs	Steel City FC (3rd)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (6th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	WNY Flash (4th)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Upper 90 FC (8th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Cleveland Force SC (2nd)	1–3	16%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	T3FC East (5th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	WNY Flash (4th)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	WNY Flash Rochester (6th)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Rochester NY FC (9th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat May 15	at	Croatia Juniors (1st)	1–3	10%
·	Sun May 16	at	Rochester NY FC (9th)	3–1	75%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Upper 90 FC

-3

1.00

LLLLW

+0.40

-0.21

6.6

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Cleveland Force SC (2nd)	5–4
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	T3FC East (5th)	0–2
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Steel City FC (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (7th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (6th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	WNY Flash (4th)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Rochester NY FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Croatia Juniors · Sat Mar 6 at Rochester NY FC See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Rochester NY FC (9th)	4–1	89%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Croatia Juniors (1st)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Rochester NY FC (9th)	3–1	82%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (7th)	2–1	51%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Steel City FC (3rd)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	T3FC East (5th)	1–2	26%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Cleveland Force SC (2nd)	1–3	21%
·	Sun May 9	at	Croatia Juniors (1st)	1–3	13%
·	Sat May 15	at	WNY Flash (4th)	2–2	27%
·	Sun May 16	at	WNY Flash Rochester (6th)	1–1	30%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Rochester NY FC

-26

0.00

LLLL

+0.12

+0.48

9.0

L	Sun Sep 27	vs	WNY Flash (4th)	0–10
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (6th)	0–6
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (7th)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Steel City FC (3rd)	0–7

Next: Mon Jan 1 at Croatia Juniors · Sat Oct 24 at Upper 90 FC · Sun Oct 25 at T3FC East See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	at	Croatia Juniors (1st)	0–7	0%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Upper 90 FC (8th)	1–4	4%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	T3FC East (5th)	1–5	2%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Upper 90 FC (8th)	1–3	8%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Cleveland Force SC (2nd)	1–8	0%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	WNY Flash Rochester (6th)	0–4	4%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	WNY Flash (4th)	1–6	2%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Steel City FC (3rd)	1–5	2%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (7th)	1–3	12%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Cleveland Force SC (2nd)	1–7	1%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Croatia Juniors (1st)	1–6	1%
·	Sun May 9	vs	T3FC East (5th)	1–4	4%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Steel City FC (3rd)	1–5	2%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (7th)	1–3	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.44 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.